Here's an interesting punditry challenge. We aren't going to find out what the American Society of Cinematographers feels about this past year in cinema until March 9th, which is the day before the Academy's ballots are due. This allows us one whole month to wonder what the cinematographers in the industry are feeling about what they're looking at. Anything is possible, really, until it's not. Remember when Germany's Never Look Away scored an out of nowhere nod just two years ago? Here's what our crystal ball says right now though its imagery isn't always in focus.
PREDICTIONS
the only locks...
NOMADLAND Joshua James Richards
Richards is a fast-rising talent . Nomadland is only his fourth feature; he's shot all three of Chloe Zhao's movies plus the gay British drama Gods Own Country. He was honored with a Spotlight nomination from his own guild, the ASC, for The Rider two years back. He's won numerous awards already for Nomadland and is looking like the frontrunner for the Oscars for his evocative naturalistic work.
MANK Erik Messerschmidt
Whether or not you personally vibe with this take on 30s Hollywood -- I personally go back and forth on the look of it between "wow" and "this is too much / distractingly anachronistic" -- it's quite a calling card as a debut feature. Plus Oscar likes black and white cinematography. This cameraman previously worked on shorts and a couple of TV series before getting this plum gig via his Mindhunter director David Fincher
probably...
NEWS OF THE WORLD Darius Wolski
In addition to this handsome western, this Polish DP has recently received acclaim for the camerawork on Ridley Scott's TV series Raised by Wolves. He made his name on music videos before becoming a regular feature cinematographer in the 1990s. Miraculously he has never secured an Oscar nomination despite high profile work. The closest he came in the past was probably Crimson Tide (1995, ASC nomination), and The Martian (2015, Critics Choice nomination). Other key credits include: Prometheus, Dark City, Sweeney Todd, and The Mexican.
maybe but surely vulnerable...
TENET Hoyte van Hoytema
This Dutch-Swedish cinematographer rose to international fame with his incredibly moody work on Let the Right One In (2008) and has since secured BAFTA nods (Dunkirk, Interstellar, Tinker Tailor Solder Spy) as well as one Oscar nomination (Dunkirk). Other key credits include: Her, Ad Astra, and The Fighter. Christopher Nolan's films often score a few craft nods. But Tenet is not as well liked as some of his other features and they did pass over van Hoytema for his work on Interstellar.
MINARI Lachlan Milne
If our current predictions hold the cinematography branch at the Oscars is going to have a very "fresh eyes" kind of year with Milne, Messerschmidt, and Richards all being very new cinematographers. Best Picture heat always helps films get attention in other categories. But will the cinematographer's branch embrace this film's gentle loveliness or look elsewhere for something bigger?
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
DA 5 BLOODS Newton Thomas Sigel
I have to admit I didn't enjoy his work on this Spike Lee joint but others obviously feel differently (Critics Choice nomination). Siegel has been Oscar worthy before though and never made it in to the nominee circle. After his BAFTA nomination for Bohemian Rhapsody he could conceivably have built up enough goodwill for a career nomination with Oscar voters. Yet his own guild, the American Society of Cinematographers, has never nominated him. It could very well happen but it would require Da 5 Bloods overperforming on nomination morning. Past credits include: Drive, Three Kings, X2, The Trigger Effect, Apt Pupil, and Valkyrie.
FIRST COW Christopher Blauvelt
Awards history continually reminds us that Oscar voters don't always watch the indie darlings of any given year. Or, if they do, that they're not always impressed. But if First Cow is going to score anywhere beyond screenplay, couldn't it be in one of the visual categories like here or production design? Blauvelt had a profile raising year because he shot both this critic's favourite and another more mainstream success, the buttery funny Emma. Previous films include The Bling Ring, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Them, and Don't Worry He Won't Get Far on Foot.
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH Sean Bobbit
Bobbit has yet to be recognized by the Academy but others have noticed his gifts including BAFTA and the American Society of Cinematographers (both for 12 Years a Slave, which was inexplicated not nominated for Best Cinematography at the Oscars). He previously won the BIFA for Hunger. Other films he's shot include The Place Beyond the Pines, Oldboy (Spike Lee's version), and On Chesil Beach.
I'M THINKING OF ENDING THINGS Lukasz Zal
Poland's Zal previously scored two nominations, both from movies that were in a foreign language and not nominated for Best Picture (Ida, Cold War). Anybody who can get nominated TWICE without Best Picture heat is someone you have to keep an eye on. But maybe this film's misjudged opening act (just two people in a car for what feels like 10 years) isn't the best way to get people wrapped up in the visual style of your movie.
TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 Phedon Papamichael
This Greek cinematographer's career has included several Oscar favourites like Ford V Ferrari, Walk the Line, and Sideways. He scored one previous nomination from a Best Picture nominated film (Nebraska) but that had the advantage of being in black and white which the cinematographers often get excited about. Sometimes even if cinematography isn't particularly noteworthy and/or it's hard to recall any specific images or lighting it can still be nominated if the Academy likes the movie enough (see The King's Speech or The Reader) though normally they require flashier achievements or more obviously "beautiful" movies in this category.
Long Shots
They're picturesque so maybe: the snowy sci-fi THE MIDNIGHT SKY or yet another black and white film MALCOLM & MARIE (there were so many black and white films this year!)
They're in the best picture race so that always assures some votes from the craft branches since getting people to watch your movie is the most crucial first step in snagging a nomination: MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM, THE FATHER, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN, SOUND OF METAL, and ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
If the voters are really looking at lots of films: AMMONITE, MULAN, I CARRY YOU WITH ME, and hmmm... yet another black and white film, DEAR COMRADES (if it's eligible beyond international feature).
What do you think will be nominated this year?