by Nathaniel R
The Golden Globes threw a molotov cocktail at the Best Actress race last night. Pundits have mostly agreed that four spots were cemented with Viola Davis, Carey Mulligan, Frances McDormand, and Vanessa Kirby as the leaders. The fifth spot was deemed up for grabs with some growing sentiment that it would be Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) emerging from behind (without precursors) to score that contentious final seat in the throne room. But last night the Globes did some very loud FYCing for both Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) and Andra Day (United States vs Billie Holiday), both of whom starred in 2021 pictures vying for the "best of 2020" honors due to the extended eligibility period. In other words, it paid to wait until the last second with the Globes this year.
Will these two wins affect the Oscar ballots which go out this Friday? Let's discuss after the jump...
The win for Andra Day is very good news for her, and not just because the fifth spot is competitive and therefore any boost helps. In Globe history, it's extremely rare for the Best Actress Drama winner not to score a subsequent Oscar nomination. In fact, it's only happened twice in history:
- Shirley Maclaine, Madame Souzatska (1988)
- Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road (2008)
Both of those cases have extenuating circumstances: Maclaine was part of the only Best Actress Drama tie in Globe history, a three way tie at that, and the other two scored nominations; Winslet had another option for voters that year with The Reader so she was nominated, just not for that specific film. Statistically speaking it would be incredibly bizarre for Andra Day to miss.
But far more important than a vote of approval from the HPFA is the fact that Andra Day's role is EXACTLY what Oscar loves to reward... even if she's lost the Globe. "Oscar bait" may be an overused phrase but this role more than qualifies. It has everything that proves endlessly alluring to voters: biographical in nature (they far prefer real characters to fictional ones), addiction (they've loved that for decades), musical in nature (biopics of musicians are an especially big Oscar draw), incredible beauty with willingness to deglam (Day pulling off Billie at her most glamorous and her most sickly), and being a fresh face (this last bit only applies to women but they've always preferred new or rising actresses in their late twenties to late thirties best -- Day is 36 and nw to film -- and they've never expected them to pay their dues before a first nomination as they often do with men.)
Rosamund Pike, on the other hand, is more likely to be a Globe blip. It's far more common for winners in Comedy/Musicals to miss an Oscar nomination though even that statistic has been wearing down in "The Great and Horrible Fusing of All Awards Group Tastes Into One" that we've been seeing develop over the best 20 years as disagreements beetween the ever increasing amount of awards bodies on what is "best" have varied less and less. The Globe Comedy Actress winner used to miss an Oscar nod 40%-50% of the time but lately the winners are only missing 20% of the time. Here's who that's happened to in the past:
- June Allyson, Too Young to Kiss (1951)
- Ethel Merman, Call Me Madam (1953)
- Jean Simmons, Guys and Dolls (1955)
- Taina lg & Kay Kendall, Les Girls (1957)
- Marilyn Monroe, Some Like it Hot (1959)
- Rosalind Russell, A Majority of One (1961)
- Rosalind Russell, Gypsy (1962)
- Patty Duke, Me Natalie (1969)
- Twiggy, The Boyfriend (1971)
- Raquel Welch, Three Musketeers (1974)
- Barbra Streisand, A Star is Born (1976)
- Bernadette Peters, Pennies from Heaven (1981)
- Kathleen Turner, Romancing the Stone (1984)
- Kathleen Turner, Prizzi's Honor (1985)
- Miranda Richardson, Enchanted April (1992)
- Jamie Lee Curtis, True Lies (1994)
- Nicole Kidman, To Die For (1995)
- Madonna, Evita (1996)
- Renée Zellweger, Nurse Bety (2000)
- Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (2008)
- Amy Adams, Big Eyes (2014)
- Awkwafina, The Farewell (2019)
All of which suggests that Pike is statistically closer to her second Oscar nomination than we might have expected yesterday afternoon. On the other hand, Oscar isn't super keen on evil women OR comedy work (except in the supporting actress category where the two things are welcom) so we don't think Pike is going to happen, Globe win aside.
Here's the thing, though. Last week I was ready to change my 5th spot prediction to Sophia Loren (due to the film's overperformance on finalist lists and the double Globe nod. But this week Andra Day seems like the one. So let's posit a new theory. It's Vanessa Kirby who is going to miss with Pieces of a Woman less and less discussed as the weeks go by and Loren fandom humming at a steady pace while Day continues to rise. As for Pfeiffer (a Globe nominee) and Adams (a SAG nominee) we suspect the road ends here.
CHECK OUT THE REVISED OSCAR CHART