How Often Does Best Actor Go to a Performance from a Film That Missed Best Picture?
Monday, March 22, 2021 at 3:30PM
Christopher James in Best Actor, Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Oscar Trivia, Oscars (20), Punditry

 by Christopher James

After "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" missed Best Picture, is Chadwick Boseman's win still secure?Chadwick Boseman still stands as the frontrunner in Best Actor for his role in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. The actor gives the role of Levee, an ambitious horn player, his all and shows new sides to his towering star persona. In many ways, his win feels like the biggest slam dunk predictions heading into the Oscars on April 25th.  However, is there cause for concern now that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom missed out on Best Picture?

Jeff Bridges was the last actor to win for a movie that did not make an expanded Best Picture lineup.Best Actor only very rarely goes to a performance in a film not nominated for Best Picture. This has only happened 20 times in Oscar’s 92 year history (22% success rate). When only looking at the 22 years with expanded Best Picture fields, this number drops to only 2 winners (9% success rate). Only Fredric March (Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde) and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) managed this feat. However, March was tied for the prize with Wallace Beery from The Champ.

Looking at the 2020 Best Actor lineup, all Boseman’s fellow nominees are from Best Picture nominated films. Both Sound of Metal, The Father and Minari are riding high on a wave of strong Oscar support, which helps Riz Ahmed, Anthony Hopkins and Steven Yeun in this category. While Mank was the nomination leader with 10 nominations, it has the weakest buzz of the nominees. Gary Oldman, who won three years ago for The Darkest Hour, is likely the only actor that doesn't have a shot at winning. With a month to go, none of the three rising stars have a clear path to victory. Ahmed and Yeun would both be relatively young winners for this category. Meanwhile, Hopkins is a previous winner (for Silence of the Lambs) and there isn't an overwhelming campaign to provide him with a second win. Still, it has been 30 years since his last win, so Sony Pictures Classics could try for that narrative.

So does Best Actor line up with a Best Picture nomination more often than other acting categories?

 

Best Actor rarely goes to an actor in a film not nominated for Best Picture. In the Oscars’ 92 year history, this has only happened 22% of the time. This is drastically less than other acting categories, where they go to a Best Picture nominee 36-39% of the time. This gap becomes much more pronounced when looking at years with the expanded Best Picture lineup. Best Actor only went to a non-Best Picture nominee 9% of the time, versus 18-32% in other acting categories.

What is the reason for the sharp divide? It’s no secret that Oscar voters over index for being male (and white and older). This isn’t to say that a white male Oscar voter won’t vote for a female led picture. However, looking at Best Picture winners, they almost uniformly focus on stories about men. Million Dollar Baby and The Shape of Water are the only Best Picture winners since 2000 that one could argue were primarily led by women. Thus, there’s a much higher correlation between Best Actor and Best Picture than Best Actress and Best Picture.

When actors win without their film being a Best Picture nominee, they usually aren’t among so many Best Picture nominated films. When Jeff Bridges won for Crazy Heart, fellow nominees Colin Firth (A Single Man) and Morgan Freeman (Invictus) also had movies that missed out on Best Picture. The Hurt Locker’s Jeremy Renner may have been second place, but it was his breakout role and the Oscars do love to honor career milestones. Forest Whitaker won for The Last King of Scotland in a rare year when none of the Best Actor nominees starred in a Best Picture nominated film. This year, Chadwick Boseman is nominated with a group of men who are all in Best Picture nominees. The last time the only actor from a non-Best Picture nominated film beat a whole crop of actors from Best Picture nominees was in 1953 when William Holden won for Stalag 17.

Does this mean all hope is lost for Chadwick Boseman?

Hardly. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom still earned five nominations, including a Best Actress nomination for Viola Davis. This shows the film still had strong support within the Academy. Additionally, when looking at the twenty men who won Best Actor without a Best Picture nomination for their film, seven of them were arguably winning “career” Oscars. Some examples include Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), Paul Newman (The Color of Money) and John Wayne (True Grit). When stars are big enough, the Oscars will do what it can to reward them with an Oscar. As the Golden Globes demonstrated, Chadwick Boseman is one of our most famous celebrities. Due to his untimely passing, this will be their only chance to reward him with an Oscar. It’s hard to believe they will pass up that opportunity.

Take a look at the winners from non-Best Picture nominees below:

Paul Newman won his first Oscar on his eighth try for "The Color of Money."

Best Actor

Renee Zellweger won her second Oscar for playing Judy Garland in "Judy."

Best Actress

Christopher Plummer won his career Oscar for his fantastic performance in "Beginners."

Best Supporting Actor

Regina King won a well deserved Oscar for her work in "If Beale Street Could Talk" in 2018.

Best Supporting Actress

*denotes the win occurred during a year with an expanded Best Picture lineup.

Do you still think Chadwick Boseman will win Best Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom? 

 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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