The Film Experience

by Baby Clyde

Thank you all very much. I really did not expect this.

I watched the last 20 minutes of the 93rd Academy Awards with a sense of impending doom. The disastrous decision to cynically rearrange the final awards in the hope of ending the night on a contrived ‘high’ immediately struck me as problematic. Whilst back in the day Best Picture wasn’t always given out last, it’s been that way for nearly 50 years and changing the order this year was clearly done for one and only one reason. The emotional finale meant to honor Chadwick Boseman with a posthumous award was something the hapless producers couldn’t resist, and it infamously backfired. A slow moving, gold plated car crash ensued as Sir Anthony Hopkins was declared the winner. With no back up plan, no Zoom speeches allowed and no host to close the show the evening ground to an unceremonious halt. If only they’d asked me, the day could have been saved.

I’m not a great Oscar predictor. Every year I seem to get 17 or 18 right. Usually tripped up by the Shorts, even if I’ve watched them all --no, especially if I’ve watched them all! But this year I did manage to successfully predict both Lead acting races, despite them both supposedly being "shocks". Best Actor was less clear, yes, but I put Hopkins in the #1 spot back in September and never moved him. I’ve been Oscar watching a VERY long time (When I started Glenn Close only had Supporting noms) and sometimes you just get a feeling about a particular race. For example, I never once thought Stallone was winning back in 2015 and I’m still puzzled when people insist Meryl’s third was a surprise as it was inevitable. I felt exactly that way this year and as the season went on (and on and on) there was plenty of evidence, I present six pieces, pointing in that direction...

1. The Nominations
Something was clearly up on nomination morning when The Father overperformed nabbing 6 in total including the all-important Best Picture as well and lower profile but very telling noms in Editing and Production Design. By contrast Ma Rainey slightly underperformed with 5 nominations which didn’t include Picture or a much expected Adapted Screenplay nod. The warning signs were there.

2. Academy Voters Are Not A Sentimental As People Think
Just ask Glenn Close or Diane Warren (or poor Peter O’Toole who lost for the 8th time 42 years after his first nomination). As for posthumous awards there have only been 2 such acting wins in Oscar history. James Dean lost twice. The two winners (Peter Finch (Network – 1976) and Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight – 2008) gave entirely iconic performances and would have won under most circumstances. Voters didn’t see fit to rewards Hollywood royalty Spencer Tracy (Who hadn’t won in 30 years) or acting legend Sir Ralph Richardson whose career had spanned over 60 years when they were nominated posthumously. It always seemed slightly unlikely that this was the year to buck the trend. Which brings me to the bit you’re not going to like…

3. Chadwick Boseman Was Not That Famous Outside of America
The Academy’s long overdue drive to diversify its membership has had an obvious impact on the awards over the last few years. With thousands of new voters from all over the world the awards have a far more international perspective; that also means a far less U.S. centric one. This may have had an effect on the Best Actor outcome. Since his tragic, untimely death I've heard a lot (here in the UK) about the legacy Boseman left behind and the iconic performances he’d given but I don’t think that really resonated across the ocean. Boseman made his name playing legendary American heroes Jackie Robinson (42 - 2013), James Brown (Get On Up – 2014) and Thurgood Marshall (Marshall – 2017) in a trio of biopics that barely registered internationally. They made less than $4m combined outside of the US. His worldwide breakthrough came as the title character in Marvel’s mega hit Black Panther, but I’d be surprised if most international voters had seen him in anything else before 2020. The choices he made and performances he gave post Panther clearly show a hugely talented actor with an illustrious career ahead of him, but a posthumous win also suggests something of a career award, and I think a sizeable contingent of voters, who only really knew him as a comic book character, didn’t see the necessity in this, especially when his main competition was an acting titan and household name who last won nearly 30 years ago.

4. Timing
Sony Pictures Classics timed their campaign to perfection. Sometimes when a nominee has been the favourite all season long and the win seems like a foregone conclusion, by the time voters have their say they are ready to consider other options. In this case The Father made a splash at Sundance back in January 2020 but then laid low for almost an entire year which proved to be a canny move. With Hopkins missing in action the Boseman narrative took hold, but word of mouth was strong on The Father and its unavailability made people even more eager to see it. Whilst this was extremely frustrating for film lovers it was clearly seen by the right people (aka in this case awards voters). Momentum began to build. I managed to track a copy down in January and at once knew that as soon as Hopkins’ performance was more widely seen the race would change. The slow roll out meant that voters were seeing the film at exactly the right time. It garnered 6 BAFTA noms to go along with its 6 Oscar nominations and Hopkins triumph at the most predictive of awards shows (11 Best Actor matchups in a row) sealed the deal. Boseman’s loss to Ahmed at the Indie Spirits was also a warning that went unheeded. Whilst The Father’s visibility was on the rise Ma Rainey’s was waning. At one point it was shunted off into Netflix’s Hidden Gems section (at least here in the UK).

Whilst I’m sure the voting bodies have .001 % overlap it was interesting to see The Film Experience’s own Oscar preference poll in the days leading up to the big night. Ahmed won and Boseman came in 3rd. in 3rd. A Twitter poll by the And The Runner-Up Is podcast which also garnered hundreds of votes also had Boseman in 3rd behind Ahmed and winner Hopkins. These are movie fan polls and aren't representative of the Academy at all but they certainly suggest that the race wasnt over and people really loved the work of both Hopkins and Ahmed.

5. Subject Matter Matters
And in this case The Father’s devastating portrayal of a parent’s descent into dementia will undoubtedly have hit home with voters. By definition, The Academy is always going to be made up of an older demographic and many of them will have related to this subject in a way that they didn’t with the other films. It’s a really devastating depiction and anyone who has encountered a relative or loved one going through something similar can’t help but be affected by it. This is especially true when the performance at its centre is such a masterclass which bring us to the last and most important point...

6. He Deserved It
Before I go any further it needs to be said that Chadwick Boseman gives a sensational performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. There is no doubt that had he won it would have been entirely warranted. In fact, 2020’s Best Actor crop was one of the strongest in years. There were four entirely worthy nominees (And Gary Oldman) any of whom would have made an outstanding winner. I’m pretty certain that Riz Ahmed wasn’t far behind our assumed top two. Obviously, this kind of thing is entirely subjective, and we will all have our personal favourites but whoever you think gave the best performance it’s impossible to argue that Hopkins win is undeserved. He may not be your personal choice but there is no doubt it’s a remarkable piece of work.

click on the photo to hear Anthony accept his Oscar at home.

With my strong suspicion that he might pull it off I was kind of dreading a Hopkins victory because of the inevitable Twitterstorm and stream of bad takes from people who know next to nothing about how any of this works. I’m 100% certain that 99% of those up in arms about it haven’t seen both performances. The backlash didn’t turn out to be half as bad as I’d expected mostly because Sir Anthony Hopkins is universally admired, and the performance is stunning. Maybe his best ever. One of the all-time great wins in my opinion. It’s unfortunate that Soderbergh and Co’s cheap shot production decision put such a damper on the evening for the late great Boseman’s family and supporters as well as putting the 83 year old living legend Hopkins in such an awkward position. Hopefully, next year things go back to normal which will include me making far less successful predictions.