by Nathaniel R
This is the way all awards seasons should be. Well, not the Zoom breakout rooms... but the uncertainty. There's no godly reason why sweeps should ever exist in awards season given that art is subjective. If you poll any group of people on anything you will see a vast array of opinions. Yet season after season there are sweeps wherein one performer snaps up every award in sight. It is extremely rare that this happens because the performer is miles ahead of their competition (like, say, a Blanchett in Blue Jasmine effect) or because the performance is gorgeous and it's also the very last chance (like say Ledger in The Dark Knight or Boseman this year). It is more commonly an effect of a lack of imagination and groupthink. If we ran the world every acting category almost every year would be like Supporting Actress was for 2007 and Best Actress appears to be for 2020. Each awards show that arrives throws punditry into disarray again and a season can close with joy knowing several actors were honored for great work...
Early in the year (by which we mean in the last summer / early fall) it appeared that Frances McDormand might be headed for a third Best Actress win for her best work since Fargo (1996) in the Best Picture frontrunner Nomadland. Around that same time her toughest competition looked to be Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman who had excited Venice audiences and early tastemaker critics. A couple of months later there was a wave of excitement for Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom but it was quite brief, everyone quickly convinced that the film would go into the history books as the Chadwick Boseman farewell due to his untimely death, the quality of his performance, and the surprising fact that the center of gravity in August Wilson's play is not the titular character but the ambitious songwriting trumpeter that annoys her so much. Come December people were convinced Carey Mulligan was the one to beat for her avenging angel in Promising Young Woman. Critics award season pitched the "Best Actress" decision as Carey vs Frances. But on Globe night the conversation shifted again with the surprise win for Andra Day in United States vs Billie Holliday. We all woke up collectively, suddenly remembering that the Academy has never ever loved anything more than they love the biopic. What's more, within that genre, there's no subgenre they have ever loved more than the musician struggling tragically through life. Perhaps Andra Day was Oscar bound... only she wasn't SAG nominated!
And now the SAG has gone to Viola Davis. It was her sixth SAG win (they can't get enough of her) but in this particular contest she wasn't really the favourite pre-show. She performed our collective surprise over Zoom during the telecast...
After a very quick gracious speech, the show moved on. But we didn't. We could barely sleep. Who the hell is going to win the Oscar? Here are the broad outlines of the scenarios we've imagined in alphabetical order. (Apologies to Vanessa Kirby who is just happy to be nominated.)
SCENARIO 1. Voters are torn. But in the end they just can't shake off their collective addiction to the musical biopic and their endless fascination with messy neurotic musicians with difficult lives. That takes the final contest down to Andra Day vs Viola Davis. As an added bonus for their biographical addiction, they realize they get to crown the second Black Best Actress winner ever. History will be made! They know who Billie Holliday is and can even hear her voice as they mark the ballots. Some of these voters realize that Day even did her own singing but somehow still conveys Billie 'Viola lipsynched and she already has one.' they mumble, their choice already made. Andra Day wins the Oscar.
SCENARIO 2. Voters are torn. They're staring at the ballot. 'Didn't Frances just win? 'I've heard Andra Day was very good but I haven't seen it. I get that Carey Mulligan was great but that movie made me so uncomfortable'. Then they think of Viola. (Subconciously their eyes light up. It's not a biopic but they still get the familiar HAND THEM TROPHIES famous-person-playing-famous-person itch!) They're already checking their ballot box in a landslide for Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and they realize with glee how beautiful it would look to give out His & Hers Oscars again; 'It's been ages!' They forget that Viola, just like Frances, recently won an Oscar. Or remember and don't care. 'Let's make history by giving Viola two! She's always good.' Viola Davis wins the Oscar.
SCENARIO 3. Voters are torn. 'All five of these Best Actress nominees are just sensational,' they think. In they end they vote with their hearts and just go with their favourite movie of the five. The votes are still heavily divided that way but still. Best Picture heat has always counted and, hey, 'she's an icon!' they think and 'who cares if she's already won. She's Frances McDormand and I wish I was more like her.' Frances McDormand wins her third Oscar.
SCENARIO 4. Voters are torn. 'All five of these Best Actress nominees are just sensational,' they think. They start considering their options and still have trouble. 'You know what?' enough of them realize, "Frances and Viola already have Oscars." They're left to choose between Carey and Andra. Some of them haven't seen United States vs Billie Holliday. And hello, Carey Mulligan has been great forever. 'Can you believe this is only her second Oscar nomination?' That movie was so exciting!' They passionately check the box. Carey Mulligan wins the Oscar.
Make sure to vote on our Best Actress chart as to who you think should win. You can vote daily (if you clear your cache or cookies).