The Film Experience

Our team is breaking down the top contenders in all the major races and highlighting some of our favorites over the next few weeks.

By Abe Friedtanzer

This category is an interesting one because it includes only three past nominees who were all eligible last year, but only one of them was nominated. In a much more open field than ever before, it’s the right time for those who have missed out in crowded years to return again and for a few new faces to break through, especially since past winners like Claire Danes and Viola Davis can’t stage surprise returns because their shows are now over. We all know that last year’s nominee Olivia Colman (The Crown) will be back, and she’ll be joined by her season four costar Emma Corrin (Princess Diana). Beyond that, little is certain. Let’s take a look…

The past four years:

It was a big surprise last year that Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale), a past winner whose show had taken a season off, got snubbed, and it’s unlikely that, even if the show isn’t as acclaimed as it has always been, she’ll be omitted again. I don’t know what to make of Mandy Moore’s chances, since the This Is Us star only got in for season three of her show after not making the cut for season two, which featured a very memorable performance. The show has largely fallen out of favor with Emmy voters, and it’s not clear that it can earn back the slots it’s lost in the past few years.

NEW CONTENDERS

There are a number of new series with formidable female lead performances, but it’s hard to know who’s out front. Sarah Paulson (Ratched) is an Emmy favorite with seven past nominations, and even if her show isn’t enthusiastically-received, she’s still a good bet. Jurnee Smollett (Lovecraft Country) is a tour de force on her show, but she missed out on an expected Golden Globe bid, which is disconcerting even if it doesn’t really mean all that much. Phoebe Dyvenor (Bridgerton) might be able to translate her show’s popularity into a nomination. A handful of other possibilities that don’t seem as likely include Billie Piper (I Hate Suzie), Brandee Evans (P-Valley), Jessie Mei Li (Shadow and Bone), and Jordan Kristine Seamón (We Are Who We Are).

FAMILIAR FACES

It’s usually helpful to look to shows or performers that have been noticed before by Emmy voters, even if not for the current roles they have. Pose, for instance, was a Best Drama Series nominee two years ago and Billy Porter has been nominated twice. I would be thrilled if Mj Rodriguez was nominated for the third and final season of the show, though she’s just one of the terrific cast members who hasn’t yet been singled out. Uzo Aduba is a three-time Emmy winner, selected from among two very crowded ensembles on Orange is the New Black and Mrs. America, and now she’s headlining a series, the return of HBO’s In Treatment, which gives her a clear leading role voters won’t likely ignore.

Among other shows that have already been on the air but not yet noticed, The Boys is a juggernaut from Amazon that’s being heavily promoted and is extremely popular. Aya Cash likely came close to an Emmy nomination for her role in You’re the Worst, and she could easily show up here for this new role, as could her costar Erin Moriarty.

I feel like there have to be other contenders here that may come from out of nowhere, but maybe this is actually pretty simple, assuming six nominees. One of our readers points out that, just as Master of None is still eligible for Best Comedy Series despite only airing five episodes this season (one short of the required six), Euphoria could technically be eligible in the drama series races too for its two special episodes. Last year’s winner Zendaya would have a terrific shot at returning if that’s the case, but for now we’ll assume it’s not going to happen.

PREDICTIONS

Uzo Aduba (In Treatment)
Olivia Colman (The Crown)
Emma Corrin (The Crown)
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Sarah Paulson (Ratched)
Jurnee Smollett (Lovecraft Country)

What do you make of this field, and what actresses have we forgotten?

more on the upcoming Emmys