Emmy Watch: Will newcomers dominate Lead Actor in a Drama Series?

Our team is breaking down the top contenders in all the major Emmy race and highlighting some of our favorites over the next few weeks. Today, we’re looking at Best Actor in a Drama Series.

Both Sterling K. Brown and Milo Ventimiglia have been nominated for Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series at the Emmys in the past. Can they repeat this year?By Christopher James

Will the Emmys stick to their favorites or invite the popular stars of now? This eternal question rears its head yet again in the race for Outstanding Performance by a Lead Actor in a Drama Series. Previous winners, such as Sterling K. Brown, Matthew Rhys and Billy Porter, might take on precursor favorites (Josh O’Connor - The Crown) and hot newcomers (Regé-Jean Page - Bridgerton).

Who will fill out the category when nominations are announced on July 13th? Let’s take a look at the field...

The Returning Nominees

It’s always best to start with previous nominees when filling out predictions. With heavy hitters like Succession and Ozark out of the running, there are plenty of spots for the Emmys to fill. However, both of the series with previous nominees in this category have been fading from Emmy’s favor. Both This Is Us and Pose were nominated in Best Drama Series during the 2018-2019 season. However, they were dropped the following year in favor of new shows and other old favorites.

Previous nominee Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) was nominated for seasons one through three, but missed out on last year’s nominations. Once Emmy voters fall out of love with a performance, it is difficult for them to come back to it. Thus, it is most likely that previous Emmy winner Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) will carry the torch for the NBC family drama. Not only has Brown won for the show previously, but he consistently gets nominated across many acting categories, including Comedy Supporting Actor (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Comedy Guest Actor (Brooklyn Nine-Nine) and Limited Series Supporting Actor (American Crime Story: The People vs. O.J. Simpson). In short, they love him, and they don’t show signs of falling out of love.

Our winner in 2019, Billy Porter contends for Pose's final season. The groundbreaking show has seen a decline in quality this season that could jeopardize Porter’s third consecutive nomination. However, since they know this is the final season of the FX show, they are likely to give him a farewell nomination. 

Though not a nominee in the Lead Actor category, former Supporting Actor contender Joseph Fiennes has moved up to Lead for the latest season of The Handmaid’s Tale. His villainous Commander Waterford is so easy to hate, which makes for a good viewing experience but could keep voters at arm’s length. Previously, Jeffrey Wright and Kit Harrington were able to successfully earn leading nominations after contending in supporting. Could Fiennes make the jump this year?

Will Bridgerton fever catch on with the Emmys?

The Freshman Series Stars

No show hit the zeitgeist in a more seismic way this past year than Bridgerton. Since the show hit Netflix over the holidays, its leading man, Regé-Jean Page, has been everywhere. He even starred in a very well-reviewed episode of Saturday Night Live, on top of making the talk show rounds. Netflix really seems to be playing the Emmys game with this breakout hit, and Page will be the show’s best shot at an acting nomination. Additionally, his SAG nomination demonstrates there is passion for him within the industry.

Speaking of being well regarded in the industry, the other major newcomer getting precursor support is former winner Matthew Rhys in the new HBO reboot Perry Mason. The show did very well in terms of ratings and buzz when it premiered last June. Unfortunately, a lot of time has passed since the show first aired and this momentum may have died down. The same could be said for HBO’s other major contender, Lovecraft Country. It may be a more stylized drama, but the Emmys have warmed up to genre shows over the past few years. Star Johnathan Majors received a Critics Choice nomination for his performance. If there’s passion for the show in other categories, he may contend. 

While those three are the most likely new contenders, there are a slew of other new shows that voters may support. If they are going for recency bias, Apple TV+’s The Mosquito Coast could land Justin Theroux a nomination. Audiences are devouring Disney+’s TV content, and voters who love Marvel may be taken with Sebastian Stan and Anthony Mackie in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier. Other longshots could include Nicco Annan (P-Valley), Daveed Diggs (Snowpiercer), Finn Wittrock (Ratched) and Jack Dylan Grazer (We Are Who We Are).

Does love for The Crown season four push Josh O'Connor to the front of the pack in Lead Actor in a Drama Series?

Coattails From Emmy Favorites

Two of the biggest shows on TV this past year are looking to increase their already growing number of nominations. Perhaps Best Actor will be their next category to conquer.

After a snub last year, Josh O’Connor’s role as Prince Charles in The Crown was expanded. Season four of the series was arguably its best to date and it has seen its greatest awards success in precursors so far. Specifically, O’Connor has received rave reviews and won both the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards. At this point, a nomination seems assured and a win is within reach.

Disney+ made waves last Emmy season when The Mandelorian scored fifteen Emmy nominations, including Best Drama Series. It won seven categories at the Creative Arts Emmys, an incredible haul for the massive science fiction series. After Game of Thrones shattered the barrier for genre shows in the drama categories, the sky's the limit for The Madelorian. Still, it’s possible the Emmys see it as a technical achievement, rather than an acting achievement for Pedro Pascal in the titular role. We know voters are watching the show and loving it. If momentum continues, Pascal could potentially break into the Best Drama Actor lineup.

PREDICTIONS 

1. Josh O'Connor (The Crown)

2. Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)

3. Regé-Jean Page (Bridgerton)

4. Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason)

5. Jonathan Majors (Lovecraft Country)

6. Billy Porter (Pose)

Who are you rooting for in Best Actor in a Drama Series this year? What are your predictions?

more on the upcoming Emmys

• COMEDY
• Actress Comedy
• Actor Comedy
• Supporting Actress, Comedy
• Supporting Actor, Comedy
• DRAMA
• Actress Drama
• Actor Drama
• Supporting Actress, Drama
• Supporting Actor, Drama
• MORE...
• Emmy Ballots
• FYC The Handmaid's Tale
• FYC Marielle Heller, Queen's Gambit
• FYC Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
• FYC I May Destroy You
• FYC For All Mankind

Comments

[Clairee T.]

Hi, does your chart indictate the victor that year?

[Joe G]

Other than Josh O'Connor, this category feels quite weak. He's the only one with the performance and buzz to match. The list looks right, and I think Billy Porter is a stronger contender - he has the right narrative to make it in. I also wouldn't be shocked if Milo makes it in.

Is there a world in which Kevin Costner could sneak in? Obviously, the days of movie stars getting nominations for just being a series regular are long gone (e.g., Holly Hunter), but his basic cable show gets pretty massive ratings - higher than a lot of network shows.

It's quite odd that Fiennes is going lead. I've only seen the first 6 episodes, but he seems more like a Stockard Channing style "special guest star" than a full-fledged supporting player this year.

[James]

Interesting. If these Emmy predictions are accurate when nominations are announced in July, I believe this will be the first time men of color will constitute the majority of nominees for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

[Lucky]

James - and still a white guy would win, he!

[Abe]

What does Justin Hartley have to do to earn a nomination for This Is Us? Probably submit in the supporting category, though an argument can be made that he's more of a lead than Milo Ventimiglia or Mandy Moore. I wish he would be rewarded since he's consistently good and hasn't ever been recognized.

I don't disagree with your take on this category or your predictions, though I've enjoyed season 3 of Pose quite a bit.

[thevoid99]

What's so fucking special about This is Us? Honestly.

[Rod]

I agree with you as well. Those seem to be the top 6. I can't really see anyone else making it in.

Maybe Pedro Pascal?
Antony Starr for The Boys? Amazon has been pushing hard for it.
Justin Theroux?

Milo Ventimiglia really needs to be in supporting this season.
Same with Joseph Fiennes.

[Duncan]

With how sparse Supporting Actor is compared to Lead, it's really a wonder Joseph Fiennes, Milo Ventimiglia and Antony Starr wouldn't opt to go Supporting. With Starr it's arguably fraud, but the show's enough of an ensemble I'd argue he hardly has more sole focus than Dinklage in Game of Thrones, Paul in Breaking Bad or Sterling K. Brown in People vs. OJ.