The lineup in this category was fairly expected, and it’s a superb list. Four of these actresses are here for the last – and in three cases, first – time for these roles, while the other two are past Emmy winners returning to the field of nominees. This race is worth watching because the past two years have resulted in thrilling upsets, first with Jodie Comer for season two of Killing Eve and then with Zendaya for Euphoria. Two nominees from likely Best Drama Series winner The Crown makes things more competitive, paving the way for another potential vote split after Olivia Colman went head-to-head with Jennifer Aniston last year and neither won. Could Mj Rodriguez beat Emma Corrin, or will someone else triumph?
I’ll try to avoid major plot details in my analysis – but if you’d like more spoiler-filled descriptions, click on the episode titles. Let’s consider each nominee…
Uzo Aduba as Dr. Brooke Taylor in In Treatment (HBO)
Episode: “Brooke – Week 5”
Aduba is a three-time Emmy winner, with two victories for Orange is the New Black, one in the guest category and another in supporting, and last year as a limited series supporting actress for Mrs. America. She returns now as the lone representative of her show, which itself last contended a decade ago for its third season. I was impressed with her work early on, but I’m baffled by her episode submission. While the notion of her playing both therapist and patient might be theoretically appealing, the hallucinatory device just didn’t work for me, and I actually ranked this episode the worst among this season’s twenty-four installments. Aduba is obviously an Emmy favorite, but given that she’s the only honoree from her show, I don’t see her triumphing.
Olivia Colman as Queen Elizabeth II in The Crown (Netflix)
Episode: “48:1”
Colman is the lone nominee returning from last year. She was previously nominated for Fleabag and The Night Manager, and even though she has an Oscar, for The Favourite, she has yet to win an Emmy. This is also her last shot to win for this role, and it’s worth noting that Claire Foy scored on her second and final nod in this category for the same part (she’s also nominated again this year as a guest). Her selected episode gives her great screen time with Gillian Anderson, and Foy’s presence probably helps rather than hurts since the both performances are so positively similar. Can Colman beat out her own costar though? I’m not sure.
Emma Corrin as Diana, Princess of Wales in The Crown (Netflix)
Episode: “Fairytale”
This is Corrin’s first Emmy nomination, and her only chance to contend for this role, which will be taken over by Elizabeth Debicki in season four. Corrin is fabulous as Diana, and she’s an easy favorite to win. She gets a full spotlight in her submitted episode, which features her wedding and some excellent scenes with Emerald Fennell. It’s among the finest work that Corrin did all season, and I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Corrin’s name was called. It’s just as much an endearing role as a terrific performance, which only helps her case.
Elisabeth Moss as June Osborne in The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
Episode: “Home”
Moss returns after an unforgivable snub for her show’s third season, and it’s actually her first time being nominated since 2018 given the show’s hiatuses. She won for season one, and was previously nominated six times for Mad Men and once for Top of the Lake. This was a big, transformative season for June, and Moss turns in ferocious, immensely watchable work. Without spoiling too much for those who haven’t seen it, her submitted episode finds her making major adjustments. Her show’s astounding nominations performance indicates it has its fans, and Moss could easily repeat for this tour de force.
Mj Rodriguez as Blanca Rodriguez in Pose (FX)
Episode: “Series Finale”
It’s so wonderful to see Rodriguez here after she was ignored for the first two seasons of her show. She makes history as the first transgender Emmy nominee in a lead category, and I’ve seen plenty of billboards ads all around Los Angeles inviting voters to “make history” by awarding her and the show. It wouldn’t simply be a performative act – Rodriguez is fantastic on her show, and its heart and soul. She only gets to shine more in the show’s extended and highly sentimental series finale. I could definitely see Rodriguez getting a good share of votes, and maybe even ending up the surprise winner.
Jurnee Smollett as Leti Lewis in Lovecraft Country (HBO)
Episode: “Holy Ghost”
This is Smollett’s first Emmy nomination. She’s nominated now for HBO’s period horror series which was unfortunately not picked up for a second season, meaning that this is her one and only shot. She is very good on the show, and she couldn’t have picked a better episode to submit. I can still remember her walking outside and bashing in car windows with a baseball bat, and she just completely nails this character. I do think the show is a bit too genre-heavy for voters to truly digest, and I would be genuinely shocked if she managed to win, even if she would be very deserving.
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