by Nathaniel R and Team Experience!
The morning after and we're still reeling from the SAG nominations. But in particular what it's done to presumptions about the Best Actress category. I've updated the Oscar chart but after a brief flirtation with Nicole Kidman as #1, I suddenly felt the urge to give that spot to Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter. Is this insane? Not exactly though it is probably the common pundit psychosis of "overthinking it". My pundit brain began imagining that all the biopic ladies are getting in each other's way with their elaborate makeovers and mimicry (or lack thereof) and through the chaos emerges the true stealth battle of all along: superstar Lady Gaga vs revered thespian Olivia Colman.
Lady Gaga is also playing a real person, like the biopic ladies, but Patrizia Reggiani isn't a famous celebrity being recreated by another famous celebrity as is the usual draw of these things. So the traditional biopic advantage (aka default love for "what a transformation!") doesn't quite apply in Gaga's case. In the end given Olivia Colman mania and Gaga's film having more detractors, is it so outlandish to presume a quick second win could very well happen. So I polled the team, hoping that a crystal clear hive mind pundit choice would emerge. Whoops! Though there is a hesistant "consensus choice" opinions are truly all over the place.
Here's how the team responded to the big question of the moment...
With Kristen Stewart's surprise snub, who do you think is in the lead for "Best Actress" at the Oscars and why?
Surprisingly, Jessica Chastain. Stewart is too outre for some, Olivia too soon for number two, Nicole's movie too unloved for number two, and the fifth nominee? Well, that's anybody's guess. Chastain gives a genuinely major performance in her minor movie, a gorgeous blend of spontaneity and her enviable technique. - Eric Blume
Kidman seems like the apparent choice after the Globe win. It's taken so much for people to come back around on her and rewarding that film and performance with a mixed reception would just give people reason to hate on her (again). So, I’m weirdly feeling Jessica Chastain right now. The elements of performance, overdue status and well-liked celebrity are all there. - Timothy Lyons
Would love to say Olivia Colman, but I'm leaning towards Jessica Chastain since she has the biopic + campaign factor. I could actually see Gaga going either way (winning or getting snubbed on February 8th) - Camila Henriques
Lady Gaga. Partly to make up for A Star is Born and also because SAG clearly loved the film which might get her a win. - Abe Fried Tanzer
I always felt Kristen's front runner status was more by default than from genuine enthusiasm. She got in front early and then when each successive contender didn't live up to expectation she just stayed put, but it never felt like an Oscar winning perf to me. But then neither do any of the others. Now she gets snubbed by SAG which in theory should derail her chances but as there is still no consensus on an alternative I kinda think she's still in the Lead. Penelope has been my most likely challenger but seeing as she didn't make it either, who the fuck knows??? Is it just Lady Gaga??? - Baby Clyde
Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos - Voters likely enjoy the movie more than critics. Plus, it feels like the right time to give her a second win, whereas some may see it as "too soon" for Olivia Colman. -Christopher James
Kidman, probably. That being said, I'm kinda rooting against her. It feels wrong if an actress with THAT career gets multiple Oscars for somewhat standard biopic fare. It's not at all representative of her incredible range and predisposition to do risky projects with bold auteurs. - Cláudio Alves
Nicole Kidman, in a role so many many doubted she could pull off, she carries the film and is a natural with Sorkin’s dialogue. Plus, she is absolutely one of those actresses most agree could use a second Oscar. Is this really the role? Maybe. But in a year with so many wide open races, she’s currently pulled into the lead. - Patrick Ball
Probably Nicole Kidman. She's a famous movie star playing a famous icon in a movie about show business. Seems like a winning recipe. - Matt St Clair
Gotta be Kidman, between the SAG nod, the Golden Globes win, and what seems to be general industry affection for BEING THE RICARDOS. I don't get it, but the signs look good. -Lynn Lee
Nicole Kidman seems like the obvious choice, but while Being the Ricardos is better than The Trial of the Chicago 7 (albeit by an almost unquantifiable degree) it hasn't hit with an org like SAG the way I thought it might. She seemed the most logical choice even before the Stewart omission, and I still think she is. But it does feel like a real race given reaction to the film as well as the performance. - Glenn Dunks
I never thought I would be sad to complain that Nicole Kidman is likely to win a second Oscar, yet here I am. She is playing a beloved star in a role that many thought she should keep far away from. Maybe I'm just in denial that Lady Gaga will win for "Most Actress" instead? Who knows? -Gabriel Mayora
Ever since her Globe win I’ve been conditioning myself into accepting that Nicole Kidman is on her way to winning the Oscar. Because even if Stewart had made the five at SAG, I’m inclined to think Kidman would’ve won over Stewart anyways given the film/TV industry crossover appeal of Being the Ricardos and the fact that Kidman had never won at SAG for a Motion Picture category. As uninspired as it is – really? A second Oscar for this film? – this kind of win falls in line with Zellweger’s very recent second Oscar for a not-so-great biopic of a revered American celebrity. -Allen Nguyen
I honestly think this is still wide open. Stats could break so Kristen Stewart is still possible - Juan Carlos Ojano
Finally, Eurocheese and Nick Taylor might have summed it up the confusion and genuine competition most accurately by not really committing to an answer. Here's what they said...
First: I still think Stewart's showing up at the Oscars, and I don't think any of the biopic performers should feel cozy about their slots. Regardless of whether the Globes strictly matter this season, I wonder if Nicole Kidman is about to start sweeping the field. It's the right kind of role, and Being the Ricardos arguably fits their biopic template best of the nominees - not as gaudy or tacky or boring in a bad way. Bardem showing up for no reason sure helps, though Lady Gaga's dragging her whole film into nominations while she charges for the Oscar. Who knows - if there's any justice Olivia Colman will take it all. - Nick Taylor
I could talk myself into all of them. Part of me still wonders if Kristen Stewart could pull it out. If they go populist, we're looking at Gaga. Kidman is surely overdue for a second, but not everyone loves Being the Ricardos. Could Colman win again so soon? And Chastain would be wonderful but I wasn't even sure she was getting in... This race is wide open now. - Eurocheese
We repeat -- and with some glee since this should ever be thus -- the race is wide open now!