The Film Experience

Team Experience is discussing each Oscar category in the lead up to the nominations. Here's Nathaniel and Chris to talk Adapted Screenplays

CHRIS: Hi Nathaniel! I’m looking forward to discussing the Adapted Screenplay race with you. Each year, it’s fun to size up which screenplay category is more competitive - Original or Adapted. This year, the scale is tipped much more in favor of the Original Screenplay race, which has a majority of the Best Picture hopefuls. By comparison, the Adapted Screenplay is much more open, which can lead to a more interesting set of nominations. The clear frontrunner is Women Talking. It’s a Best Picture hopeful that has a really clear script hook. The film takes place over the course of 24 hours, yet weaves the individual stories of its female ensemble into a stunning patchwork quilt of trauma. Yet, it does so with moments of levity and heart. After that, the only other Best Picture sure thing in contention is Top Gun: Maverick. As that movie becomes more of a threat to win the big prize, it feels like the blockbuster behemoth will take one of the five slots here. So what becomes of the final three slots?

It’s crazy that Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery only stayed in theaters for a week. The groundswell for the incredibly twisty and fun whodunnit will likely begin now that it's streaming on Netflix...

Once widely seen, it should have no trouble following in its predecessor’s footsteps and securing a screenplay nomination. The last two slots could go so many ways. Will coattails from Best Actor vehicles The Whale and Living help them crack the Adapted Screenplay race? Even with poor box office performance, can She Said factor back in the race, especially after the AFI Top 10 inclusion? Are we underestimating Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, which is delightful and Netflix is pushing hard.

NATHANIEL: Glass Onion reminds me that I am still somewhat uncomfortable with sequels being in this category, if the original was not Adapted. I get why but I just find it odd since Glass Onion has only one continuing character and everything else is new. But yes, it will be nominated here. Remember that Knives Out looked like it was a possible disruptor in the 2019 Oscar race but only managed one nomination (Original Screenplay). All of the films you mention feel possible, but i would argue that only Women Talking and Glass Onion are locks.

The "soft" field -- lots of contenders but not a lot of buzz -- will likely benefit Top Gun Maverick even though I'm not at all sure it would have managed a screenplay nomination in a more competitive year. Spectacle movies are sometimes easy to drop here (think Moulin Rouge, Titanic) not because they're never worthy but because people tend to think of them as primarily visual / sonic experiences. I'm not saying the screenplays don't affect visuals and sound. Plot, structure, dialogue, and characters are often viewed as belonging to the writers and in that descending order, too, since actors soak up a large degree of the praise for dialogue and characterizations based on their choices of interpretation.

That's overthinking this, sorry! Top Gun Maverick will easily be included. Only if the writer's branch were feeling like mavericks themselves, would they ignore the year's 800 lbs (airborn) gorilla. If they are feeling frisky and "i'll do my own thing" it's not inconceivable that votes will be all over the place and might also include stray pockets of supporting for Bones and All, Avatar The Way of Water, The Batman, A Man Called Otto, and All Quiet on the Western Front.

CHRIS: Overthinking Oscar predictions is a national past-time. I agree that in a more competitive year, Top Gun: Maverick would be an easy snub in this category. However, it's one of those "too big to ignore" contenders that just seems to be well liked across the board.

The writer's branch has often had that maverick spirit. There's usually at least one movie that gets a lone screenplay nomination and nothing else. So what will be this year's White Tiger or Molly's Game? If there were more vocal fans, I could see The Batman following in Logan's footsteps towards an Adapted Screenplay nomination. After all, they love Batman more than any other superhero. But right now I'm banking on Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio to sneak in since people will be watching it and Netflix has been pushing hard for it. However, All Quiet on the Western Front could quietly rack up a good number of nominations, including screenplay.

When the writer's branch goes rogue, they often do it for a smaller or more prickly movie, rather than an emotional crowd pleaser. Those types of movies factor into more categories. It'll be interesting to see if A Man Called Otto can muster up enough excitement to be a major player. It definitely pulls at the heartstrings, but I think it'll be more of an "all or nothing" movie with the Oscars. Either it will show up everywhere or nowhere.

Speaking of sequels (and I agree, the classification is suspect), are we underestimating Avatar: The Way of Water here? Sure, the first Avatar did not make it into Screenplay, but that was in a more competitive Original Screenplay category (though one would think its fanbase could've gotten it a nomination over The Messenger). Not to turn this into an Avatar review, but I did enjoy it more than the first. The action and visuals are first rate and the movie builds towards a fantastic final act. Cameron knows how to structure a blockbuster. However, the dialogue is perhaps even more goofily bro-y and clunky than the first. Even fans of the film will likely look at their ballots and say "eh, it wasn't the best screenplay." What do you think?

NATHANIEL: Way back before any of us were alive, the Academy had separate awards for story and screenplay... if it was still like that i'd have more faith in Avatar The Way of Water for the former. The overall structure really is beautiful, clear, and satisfying. Even the moments where nothing is happening (lots of time just letting you "ooh" at Pandora, particularly underwater) end up really paying off. But a screenplay nomination with that dialogue. Seems unlikely!

I'm not sure about All Quiet on the Western Front, though had one of the other buzzy titles been an adaptation I would have more faith. It might help that it's famous source material but I fear people will think of it as a more of a visual experience than a written one. One movie we didn't mention is Devotion which is also an adaptation. Early audiences loved it but then it just didn't catch on in release. Was it too old fashioned? Too small in the shadow of the year's other aviation drama becoming a genuine phenomenon?

Okay my predictions.

Women Talking (all locked up)
Glass Onion (I'd be surprised by a shutout)
Top Gun Maverick (maybe not in a different year but this season, for sure)
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (?????)
Living (?????)

For the last two spots I was torn. It's easy to picture She Said and/or All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Pinocchio and Living. Yours?

CHRIS: Very good point on All Quiet on the Western Front. There does seem to be a tendency to recognize some movies as "visual films" and others as "well-written films" when many are both. That could very well keep it out of the race.

We line up on most of our predictions, save for one:

Women Talking
Glass Onion
Top Gun Maverick

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

The Whale

The box office success for The Whale suggests to me it might have more life in it than just Best Actor. I don't think that means Best Picture, but Fraser coattails could bring it into Screenplay. This sounds reductive (and it largely is as I'm not a fan of the film), but it's also MOST written with all its talk-y, overlong scenes.

In terms of movies I wish were more in the conversation, it's hard to think of a smarter adaptation than Fire Island. It so effectively uses the source material of Pride & Prejudice to tell a unique and beautiful story of queer friendship. Are there any other movies you feel should be more in the conversation?

NATHANIEL: I am also a huge fan of Fire Island and absolutely agree on its screenplay but it surely won't be Oscar eligible with the wild west terrain Hulu is occupying with Searchlight releases now, some of which they sought exemptions for (Good Luck to You Leo Grande) and others which were granted real theatrical releases. As for movies I think they should look at when they're considering their ballots for this category: I think After Yang is very special (in multiple ways) and really thoughtful science fiction. The screenplay to The Wonder is also a really fascinating exercize in both storytelling and the eternal divide between science and faith. Alas, Oscar history these past 10 years or so doesn't suggest that Academy members watch many movies beyond the ones that they've heard are firmly in the Best Picture conversation.

Your turn readers. Which films do you think will be honored for their adaptative work... and which should.

Best Supporting Actress - with Mark & Baby Clyde
Best Director - with Eric Blume & Glenn Dunks
Best Supporting Actor - with Eric & Chris
Best Original Song - with Eurocheese & Baby Clyde
Best Original Score - with Mark & Juan Carlos
Best Cinematography - with Eric and Chris
Best Makeup & Hairstyling - with Nathaniel & Elisa
Best Film Editing - with Ben & Nick
Best Costume Design - with Cláudio & Elisa
Best Production Design - with Eurocheese & Nick