Oscar Volley: the still bonkers-crowded Supporting Actress race
Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 8:20PM Here are Baby Clyde and Mark Brinkerhoff to discuss TFE's favorite category, Best Supporting Actress:
Jessie Buckley in WOMEN TALKING
MARK: Happiest season, to all who celebrate! I love a supporting actress smackdown, in real time, don’t you?This is a blood bath, to be sure, although one thing I’m fairly certain of: There will be someone from Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All at Once. At this point, I’d say Claire Foy and/or Jessie Buckley and Jamie Lee Curtis and/or Stephanie Hsu could even form the bulk of the lineup. Curtis definitely is gunning for it—will she be the third veteran, overdue actress in as many years (after Amanda Seyfried and Kirsten Dunst) to find herself finally nominated in supporting?. If Everything Everywhere All At Once overperforms, that could augur well for Hsu. (Wouldn’t it be something if we got four actors in a single film nominated again this year after The Power of the Dog did it just last year?)
My hunch is we’re likely to see a majority of first-timers in this category, which is always exciting...
Dolly de Leon in TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
Dolly de Leon (Triange of Sadness), Hong Chau (The Whale), and particularly Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) are solid contenders, provided their films are well received more broadly. What’s on your radar? Any outside scenarios we perhaps shouldn’t underestimate?
BABY CLYDE: I specifically requested this category because it’s well, bonkers! The minute Michelle Williams (correctly) defected to the Lead category she sent Supporting into disarray and months later it still hasn’t "recovered"! I suggested we hold off until after the two major critics orgs and then the Golden Globes nominations but this did not help in the slightest. The precursors have gone to different winners and the Golden Globes left out the Women Talking ladies all together.
There are literally 20 or so women who it wouldn’t be that shocking to see in the final line-up. You could make four different lists of nominees and each of them would look legit. All of the other categories (some of which are looking extremely competitive themselves) at least have front runners, but in Supporting Actress no one person is standing out. There’s no heavy favourite to win it all. There aren’t even any assured nominees. We can’t decide who is the most likely from some of the more fancied films. I’ve never seen anything like this so far into Oscar season.
Janelle Monáe in GLASS ONION
All of those you mentioned are legit contenders and that’s even before considering NBR and NYFC winners Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) and Keke Palmer (Nope). On which note, can we discuss this year’s category fraud?!
MARK: Oh, my. Let’s. Just as certain as death and taxes, studios and representatives will try to run one —oh, who am I kidding? -- Several leading actor/actress in the supporting categories. Listen, I love an unpredictable race like this year’s, but not when the likes of first-billed Carey Mulligan (She Said) are campaigning for a slot at the expense of a breakout performer in a true supporting role, namely Dolly de Leon and Stephanie Hsu. (I like Mulligan fine, but she—and, one could argue Palmer, whom we Garys all love—is a co-lead and ought to be considered as such for Oscar!)
All of this is to say that there are plenty of excellent truly supporting actresses to choose from, and I do hope the Academy chooses wisely. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), the queen of everyone’s dreams, is beginning to feel like a lock given the strong precursor support. Is the above-the-line tide finally turning in Marvel’s favor? Will Bassett be *the* first Marvel film performance nominated in an acting category? Because that would be something.
Angela Bassett in BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
By the by, will this year’s supporting actress race end up being a contest between two iconic, overdue actresses (Bassett vs. Curtis) for the actual win? It very well shape up like that.
BABY CLYDE: My fury at Category Fraud is very much tied to the fact that big stars in big roles will possibly squeeze out the lesser-known Supporting performers for whom this category was invented, and for whom a nomination can be life changing. If Stephanie Hsu doesn’t make the cut don’t blame Jamie Lee Curtis, blame Carey Mulligan or Janelle Monáe! Samantha Morton and Jennifer Ehle should be riding high in everyone’s predictions and it would have been great to see Kate Hudson return to the Oscar stage after 20 years but the leading ladies in their respective films seem to have totally scuppered their chances.
Let’s hope it doesn’t matter and the Academy does indeed employ this category for the purpose it was initially introduced, rewarding newcomers and overdue legends . A Curtis/Bassett face off would be fantastic, although either of them being rewarded for these particular roles would make for very strange Oscar nods.
I can’t help thinking that voters may revert to type and go for more traditional nominations which is why at the moment the only dead certainty seems to be Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin. Do you think anyone else is a lock and which outsider would you most like to see make the cut?
MARK: Your fury is righteous and justified! If only Academy voters were more inclined to reject category fraud, as they did with Kate Winslet (The Reader) and Keisha Castle-Hughes (Whale Rider), the Oscar world would be a much more just place.
Monáe, who, let’s face it, ought to have been nominated over co-star Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures (*or* Moonlight) in 2016, is on fire in Glass Onion; it’d be hard for me to quibble with her getting recognized already. It would be nice to see genuine supporting players like the underappreciated Ehle, Hudson, Morton or Gabrielle Union (The Inspection) make it in over Mulligan, who would not remotely benefit from this nomination, the solidness of her performance notwithstanding. (She’s got Maestro on deck for next year, anyway, for whatever that’s worth.)
Besides Bassett and Curtis, I agree Condon is a lock for a pitch-black film that seems to be resonating across the board. (Incidentally, am I only one who kept seeing in Condon sometimes Kristen Wiig, sometimes Rebecca Ferguson, throughout? She’s a standout.) Beyond those three, it likely will be one of the Women Talking actresses and a heretofore unnominated performer like Chau, De Leon (my outsider pick for sure) or Monáe. BAFTA and/or SAG could be instructive in this regard.
Claire Foy in WOMEN TALKING
Is there anyone whose Oscar chances in supporting seem done at this point? I’m not ready to say it (yet), but it *is* a little surprising that Claire Foy hasn’t gotten much precursor support for what I presumed would be an awards-friendly performance.
BABY CLYDE: Buckley definitely seems to be the Women Talking woman who consensus is building around which means Foy’s looks likely to get snubbed again after missing out for First Man.
MARK: Poor Foy. She can win an Emmy for seconds of work, but can’t get the time of day from Oscar it seems. She’d be so worthy for it this year, too.
BABY CLYDE: Hong Chau was much fancied a few years back for her breakthrough Downsizing but looks like she’s about to also become a double snubee as The Whale isn’t really taking off as expected. With Fraser's frontrunner status evaporating, he'll have less coattails pull.
I’m glad you’ve mentioned Gabrielle Union. She’s been in my predictions ever since I saw The Inspection at TIFF. It would be so exciting to see her getting her due after so long in the industry, but that film hasn’t picked up steam like some of us anticipated. Which leaves De Leon as the one I’m rooting for most this Oscar season. I'm also very curious to see whether Nina Hoss (TÁR) gets dragged to a nomination on the back of Cate’s inevitable Best Actress run.
Kerry Condon in THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
It’s still very early and I wouldn’t be surprised if four of these didn’t make it (that's how volatile this is) but I think my current predictions are:
- Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
- Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion)
With De Leon a close sixth (or maybe Hsu or Foy or Hoss or...)
MARK: TÁR sure seems to be the Cate Blanchett show, memes and all, so I don’t have much faith that any other of the film’s actors will be getting in on her coattails, including Hoss. So, like you, I think that leaves us with a select few probabilities now:
- Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
- Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
- Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
The latter will be duking it out with De Leon and Monáe for that last slot, which could go any which way, depending on how widely embraced both Glass Onion and Triangle of Sadness are by the Academy—a frankly wild list of unconventional film nominees, regardless of the ultimate five. Have we ever had such a genre-y lineup? That alone is kind of exciting, even if you’re not sold on every performance itself.
And with that, that’s a wrap, no? It’s been a blast; we’ll see come nomination morning in less than a month!!!
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Reader Comments (16)
While I wouldn’t say it’s likely, it’s still pretty wild that there’s a chance only four movies are represented across both supporting categories this year since it’s at least possible EEAAO, Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking, and The Fabelmans take up all 10 spots.
Merry Christmas. I can't say much about the supporting actress as I haven't seen all the films.
BUT: yesterday was Ava Gardner's 100th birthday. Just a reminder.
That would be the strangest lineup in my lifetime. Feels like an MTV category.
Is Judith Ivey good in Women Talking? Can I dream of a career nomination?
I haven't seen some of the contenders Women Talking,Wakanda Forever The Inspection The Whale or Babylon.
Here's my top 5 on the films I have seen in no particular order
Curtis EEAAO
Hsu EEAAO
Merlant Tar
Hathaway Armageddon Time
Lynch The Woman King.
Of the people receiving the most praise there is at least one a year I don't get last year Cumberbatch this year Kerry Condon,I preferred the shop lady better.
I also don't see what others see in Monae,fine performance but overshadowed by others in the cast esp Hudson,Craig and Norton.
I enjoyed De Leon but even that's not the performance you go "Give her an Oscar" even though she is very fine in it and i'd be glad is she got in.
I though Jennifer Connelly in Top Gun 2 might have a coatail shot as a previous winner but then i saw the film and it's all looking off into the distance acting or beaming smiles.
I was most underwhelmed by Hoss who apart from some great silent reactions shots is left with zero to do apart from angrily get out of a car and stroke Lydia's back.
KeKe Palmer's a Lead and I found her to be totally annoying in Nope.
I did like Emond in Causeway but not enough meat on it.
I think the race will go to a veteran Bassett or Curtis either of those two would be glorious unless they love Women Talking I could see Buckley,nobody else screams winner to me
I get tired of myself saying it but Judy Davis is spectacular in Nitram. Chilling monologue included. Can't believe she's got no traction at all.
I agree with Mark prediction.
@Peggy Sue-Australian cinema is perpetually assent from Oscar conversation, but they're caucasian so nobody cares
This last comment was so Awardsdaily
I haven’t seen Women Talking yet (although I’m not looking forward to it, and although I admire the actresses in it, hurrah for Sheila McCarthy, get more good roles).
So from what I’ve seen, my choices so far would be:
-Angela Bassett, Wakanda Forever
-Stephanie Hsu, EEAAO
-Jamie Lee Curtis, EEAAO
-Lashana Lynch, The Woman King/ Matilda: The Musical
-Sigourney Weaver, Call Jane
I wonder if the Nepo Baby controversy will affect Jamie Lee Curtis's chances. Could hurt them, but it's just as likely, if not more so, that it helps her. Everyone knows that while the connection with Janet Leigh may have helped her get the HALLOWEEN gig (she's admitted as much in interviews), she could have totally faded away after that. She's stayed in the game due to hard work and persistence and talent. Also, I assume most Academy voters don't much care about an East Coast publication tisk-tisking Hollywood and nobody else for the fact that parents help their kids get jobs and the fact that in every industry worth getting into connections matter.
I suspect we're gonna get some big surprises in the category on Oscar nomination morning. I don't think ANYONE is a lock. Condon is the safest, I suppose. I'm just rooting for JLC (it's time, damnit) and De Leon to make the cut. Hoss deserves to get in too but she's a longshot as this point. Definitely the most suspenseful of the acting races - both in terms of who the final five will be and the eventual winner.
Peggy Sue wrote:
“I get tired of myself saying it but Judy Davis is spectacular in Nitram. Chilling monologue included. Can't believe she's got no traction at all.”
THANK YOU! This x 1000000. I mean, I get it because the film is an incredibly disturbing watch but Judy Davis in ‘Nitram’ is hands-down the best supporting actress performance I’ve seen in a while. Essie Davis in the same film is also superb and Caleb Landry-Jones is one of the greatest Best Actor wins at Cannes in recent memory. Sadly none of this brilliance has gained any momentum even in US critics awards. Maybe because it premiered at Cannes in 2021 and took so long to reach US cinemas that any major conversation had petered out… Truly a loss to the 2022 awards season.
I’m thinking it’s going to be:
Jessie Buckley (Women), Hong Chau (Whale), Kerry Condon (Banshees), Dolly De Leon (Triangle) & Claire Foy (Women).
For one thing, Mark & Baby Clyde mentioned how many contenders there really are. And this category is already known for surprises. Yes, Jamie Lee Curtis is beloved and has shown up everywhere, but we shouldn’t ignore that her role (and Bassett’s) are NOT what Oscar goes for. Wouldn’t surprise me at all for them to be the big misses on nomination morning.
And Hong Chau has an IOU. The Whale could very well be an acting & makeup ONLY vehicle.
Finally, the talk about Women Talking has been that it seems to be underperforming and I just really think that with it being a late contender, I think Oscar will save the day and it will perform strongly with nominations. I mean, out of the nominees that I’m predicting, it’s arguably the most “normal” Oscar fare. I expect it to do really well on nomination morning.
Angela Bassett, really? She's great in WF, but I don't see the Academy going for that at all. I think JLC has a good shot, though. And Kerry Condon is aces in Banshees.
Haven't seen Women Talking yet, looking forward to it - lack of buzz notwithstanding.
It's too bad that She Said has even less buzz - although I'm glad you guys noted Samantha Morton and Jennifer Ehle because for my money, theirs were two of the best supporting performances of the year. Morton especially is FIRE in a single scene - she ought to be getting Beatrice Straight-in-Network level of hosannahs, she's that good. And yes, in a world less fraught with category fraud, Ehle would/should legit be in the supporting actress conversation. Sad there's no chance of that happening.
I have to say... I'm almost certain Hsu will not be nominated. Curtis will take the nomination spot for that movie, as her stardom will just push her to have her first nomination. If Hsu get a SAG nod, maybe. Big maybe.
If any movie gets a double nomination, it will be Women Talking. I can see Foy and Buckley being nominated, for sure.
Condon is just the one to beat. We know this. And Angela Bassett... Well, I'm not sure. Do the Oscars need more people to actually care about them by watching the telecast? Yes. But will they do what they almost never do which is nominate someone from, basically, a scifi film? She also needs SAG to endorse her.
Chau? Also big maybe. I don't see it for her, personally. Same for Dolly de Leon. She doesn't seem to be the type of actor and performance they would go for, especially for a movie that doesn't seem to have a lot of other spots to be in.
For me its Bassett, Buckley, Condon, Curtis and Foy.
Hathaway >>>>Williams