The Film Experience

Here are Baby Clyde and Mark Brinkerhoff to discuss TFE's favorite category, Best Supporting Actress:

Jessie Buckley in WOMEN TALKING

MARK: Happiest season, to all who celebrate! I love a supporting actress smackdown, in real time, don’t you?This is a blood bath, to be sure, although one thing I’m fairly certain of: There will be someone from Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All at Once. At this point, I’d say Claire Foy and/or Jessie Buckley and Jamie Lee Curtis and/or Stephanie Hsu could even form the bulk of the lineup. Curtis definitely is gunning for it—will she be the third veteran, overdue actress in as many years (after Amanda Seyfried and Kirsten Dunst) to find herself finally nominated in supporting?. If Everything Everywhere All At Once overperforms, that could augur well for Hsu. (Wouldn’t it be something if we got four actors in a single film nominated again this year after The Power of the Dog did it just last year?)

My hunch is we’re likely to see a majority of first-timers in this category, which is always exciting...

Dolly de Leon in TRIANGLE OF SADNESS

Dolly de Leon (Triange of Sadness), Hong Chau (The Whale), and particularly Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) are solid contenders, provided their films are well received more broadly. What’s on your radar? Any outside scenarios we perhaps shouldn’t underestimate?

BABY CLYDE: I specifically requested this category because it’s well, bonkers! The minute Michelle Williams (correctly) defected to the Lead category she sent Supporting into disarray and months later it still hasn’t "recovered"! I suggested we hold off until after the two major critics orgs and then the Golden Globes nominations but this did not help in the slightest. The precursors have gone to different winners and the Golden Globes left out the Women Talking ladies all together.

There are literally 20 or so women who it wouldn’t be that shocking to see in the final line-up. You could make four different lists of nominees and each of them would look legit. All of the other categories (some of which are looking extremely competitive themselves) at least have front runners, but in Supporting Actress no one person is standing out. There’s no heavy favourite to win it all. There aren’t even any assured nominees. We can’t decide who is the most likely from some of the more fancied films. I’ve never seen anything like this so far into Oscar season.

Janelle Monáe in GLASS ONION

All of those you mentioned are legit contenders and that’s even before considering NBR and NYFC winners Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) and Keke Palmer (Nope). On which note, can we discuss this year’s category fraud?!

MARK: Oh, my. Let’s. Just as certain as death and taxes, studios and representatives will try to run one —oh, who am I kidding? -- Several leading actor/actress in the supporting categories. Listen, I love an unpredictable race like this year’s, but not when the likes of first-billed Carey Mulligan (She Said) are campaigning for a slot at the expense of a breakout performer in a true supporting role, namely Dolly de Leon and Stephanie Hsu. (I like Mulligan fine, but she—and, one could argue Palmer, whom we Garys all love—is a co-lead and ought to be considered as such for Oscar!)

All of this is to say that there are plenty of excellent truly supporting actresses to choose from, and I do hope the Academy chooses wisely. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), the queen of everyone’s dreams, is beginning to feel like a lock given the strong precursor support. Is the above-the-line tide finally turning in Marvel’s favor? Will Bassett be *the* first Marvel film performance nominated in an acting category? Because that would be something.

Angela Bassett in BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER

By the by, will this year’s supporting actress race end up being a contest between two iconic, overdue actresses (Bassett vs. Curtis) for the actual win? It very well shape up like that.

BABY CLYDE: My fury at Category Fraud is very much tied to the fact that big stars in big roles will possibly squeeze out the lesser-known Supporting performers for whom this category was invented, and for whom a nomination can be life changing. If Stephanie Hsu doesn’t make the cut don’t blame Jamie Lee Curtis, blame Carey Mulligan or Janelle Monáe! Samantha Morton and Jennifer Ehle should be riding high in everyone’s predictions and it would have been great to see Kate Hudson return to the Oscar stage after 20 years but the leading ladies in their respective films seem to have totally scuppered their chances.

Let’s hope it doesn’t matter and the Academy does indeed employ this category for the purpose it was initially introduced, rewarding newcomers and overdue legends . A Curtis/Bassett face off would be fantastic, although either of them being rewarded for these particular roles would make for very strange Oscar nods.

I can’t help thinking that voters may revert to type and go for more traditional nominations which is why at the moment the only dead certainty seems to be Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin. Do you think anyone else is a lock and which outsider would you most like to see make the cut?

MARK: Your fury is righteous and justified! If only Academy voters were more inclined to reject category fraud, as they did with Kate Winslet (The Reader) and Keisha Castle-Hughes (Whale Rider), the Oscar world would be a much more just place.

Monáe, who, let’s face it, ought to have been nominated over co-star Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures (*or* Moonlight) in 2016, is on fire in Glass Onion; it’d be hard for me to quibble with her getting recognized already. It would be nice to see genuine supporting players like the underappreciated Ehle, Hudson, Morton or Gabrielle Union (The Inspection) make it in over Mulligan, who would not remotely benefit from this nomination, the solidness of her performance notwithstanding. (She’s got Maestro on deck for next year, anyway, for whatever that’s worth.)

Besides Bassett and Curtis, I agree Condon is a lock for a pitch-black film that seems to be resonating across the board. (Incidentally, am I only one who kept seeing in Condon sometimes Kristen Wiig, sometimes Rebecca Ferguson, throughout? She’s a standout.) Beyond those three, it likely will be one of the Women Talking actresses and a heretofore unnominated performer like Chau, De Leon (my outsider pick for sure) or Monáe. BAFTA and/or SAG could be instructive in this regard.

Claire Foy in WOMEN TALKING

Is there anyone whose Oscar chances in supporting seem done at this point? I’m not ready to say it (yet), but it *is* a little surprising that Claire Foy hasn’t gotten much precursor support for what I presumed would be an awards-friendly performance.

BABY CLYDE: Buckley definitely seems to be the Women Talking woman who consensus is building around which means Foy’s looks likely to get snubbed again after missing out for First Man.

MARK: Poor Foy. She can win an Emmy for seconds of work, but can’t get the time of day from Oscar it seems. She’d be so worthy for it this year, too.

BABY CLYDE: Hong Chau was much fancied a few years back for her breakthrough Downsizing but looks like she’s about to also become a double snubee as The Whale isn’t really taking off as expected. With Fraser's frontrunner status evaporating, he'll have less coattails pull.

I’m glad you’ve mentioned Gabrielle Union. She’s been in my predictions ever since I saw The Inspection at TIFF. It would be so exciting to see her getting her due after so long in the industry, but that film hasn’t picked up steam like some of us anticipated. Which leaves De Leon as the one I’m rooting for most this Oscar season. I'm also very curious to see whether Nina Hoss (TÁR) gets dragged to a nomination on the back of Cate’s inevitable Best Actress run.

Kerry Condon in THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
It’s still very early and I wouldn’t be surprised if four of these didn’t make it (that's how volatile this is) but I think my current predictions are:

Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion)

With De Leon a close sixth (or maybe Hsu or Foy or Hoss or...)

MARK: TÁR sure seems to be the Cate Blanchett show, memes and all, so I don’t have much faith that any other of the film’s actors will be getting in on her coattails, including Hoss. So, like you, I think that leaves us with a select few probabilities now:

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

The latter will be duking it out with De Leon and Monáe for that last slot, which could go any which way, depending on how widely embraced both Glass Onion and Triangle of Sadness are by the Academy—a frankly wild list of unconventional film nominees, regardless of the ultimate five. Have we ever had such a genre-y lineup? That alone is kind of exciting, even if you’re not sold on every performance itself.

And with that, that’s a wrap, no? It’s been a blast; we’ll see come nomination morning in less than a month!!!

Nathaniel's Supporting Actress Predictions

Best Director - with Eric Blume & Glenn Dunks
Best Supporting Actor - with Eric & Chris
Best Original Song - with Eurocheese & Baby Clyde
Best Original Score - with Mark & Juan Carlos
Best Cinematography - with Eric and Chris
Best Makeup & Hairstyling - with Nathaniel & Elisa
Best Film Editing - with Ben & Nick
Best Costume Design - with Cláudio & Elisa
Best Production Design - with Eurocheese & Nick