We'll talk more about the SAG ceremony and actual winners soon but first let's talk about what happened to Belfast and The Power of the Dog. While Kenneth Branagh's memoir and Jane Campion's instant classic have long been considered Best Picture frontrunners neither of them won a single prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Does this mean anything? Well, yes and no...
With Belfast, which was up for the closest thing SAG has to a "best picture" style prize in "Outstanding Cast", the loss reads like a closing chapter, a defeat. Despite initial twitter mania when few Oscar-hopefuls had yet screened, Caitriona Balfe, the only Belfast member to score a solo acting nomination at SAG, was never a frontrunner for the Supporting Actress prize. Her loss was a given but the defeat in Outstanding Cast suggests that the kind of affection you need to win the top prize just isn't there for the film. Or, at least the affection wasn't as strong as the pull for CODA's also adorable cast. Being an early frontrunner has its disadvantages. The two primary marks against any film that is out front early are these: First, you lose the 'new favourite' recency bias and second, you become a big target. Had CODA been considered an early frontrunner, it too might have had noisy detractors. But curiously, though it's an "older" film, having debuted over a year ago now, and a less successful one, financially, given that it was a very expensive purchase and barely registered at theaters before streaming, it feels both more successful and newer than Belfast, neither of which are true (!), since that intense frontrunner spotlight was never actually on it.
After the top SAG win you could arge that CODA is exactly where Belfast intended to be going into Oscar night, as the presumptive favourite among the block of voters that is mostly drawn to mainstream storytelling and the kind of "warm" sentimental family-friendly films that have been in short supply in recent years. There were a lot more of these films this past season than usual (you can also count King Richard in this group... and even C'mon C'mon if you're feeling generous) and CODA is now the top dog in that corner.
The losses for The Power of the Dog are less "it's over" concerning, since it's far more of an auteur piece, but they are still a 'perception' obstacle to overcome before final Oscar voting begins. Kirsten Dunst's quiet despairing performance always had a 'how to win?' problem in that it was up against the traditional awards-magnetism of Ariana DeBose's "Anita" role (which has led to both Tony and Oscar wins for other actresses before her). And as with many enduring reliable performers like Dunst, the danger is always that your gifts get taken for granted so sometimes the nomination is the reward.
Benedict Cumberbatch and Kodi Smit-McPhee's turns are by far the most lauded in their categories but critical awards and favour alone has never been Oscar-winning assurance. You need more than just the critics. Both men could lose their categories on Oscar night (Cumberbatch will given Will Smith's superstardom and long Hollywood history) but the jury is still out on Supporting Actor. Troy Kotsur could well be the sentimental favourite and the second deaf performer to win an Oscar, but on the other hand, Smit-McPhee is a revelation and key to his film's success. What's more CODA might have peaked at SAG, as other ensemble pictures havei in the past like Sideways, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Hidden Figures, The Help, and American Hustle.
The Power of the Dog was not up for Outstanding Cast at SAG but that's never been a dealbreaker to win Best Picture. Of the past 10 top SAG winners, for example, only four have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars: Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, and Parasite. And of the past 10 Best Picture winners three were not nominated for Outstanding Cast at SAG: Nomadland, Greenbook, and Shape of Water. If The Power of the Dog wins Best Picture it will be most analagous to The Shape of Water statistically, leading the Oscar nominations, losing all individual categories at SAG, but boosted considerably by coming from a beloved director who was figuratively the star of the movie and who had never won the top prize.
So we're sticking with The Power of the Dog as our Best Picture prediction. Belfast has lost ground to CODA but the latter, being without Oscar nods in any visual or sound categories or director would be an extremely unusual Oscar Best Picture winner. In fact, since all current categories have been in place, no film has ever managed a win in Best Picture without either a director or an editing nomination... and winners usually have both. CODA definitely gained awards ground last night but its primary accomplishment, through SAG, wasn't taking out Power of the Dog, but defeating Belfast and bolstering the chance that Troy Kotsur would win an individual acting Oscar.
Agree? Disagree? Do tell in the comments.