Our Oscar Volley series is almost at an end. Here are Matt St Clair, Josh Bierman, and Baby Clyde to talk Best Actress
Matt St Clair: Even though Best Actress has a pretty clear frontrunner, the rest of the category seems mostly up for grabs. Do you guys agree and also, besides Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter, do you think there's hope for another non-biopic performance to make the cut?
Josh Bierman: Interesting. I don’t agree that there's a clear frontrunner! I assume you mean Nicole Kidman who is the most solid lock for a nomination. This is a category where I think I have to wait to see who’s nominated before I can declare a winner...
I have a feeling Olivia Colman won’t be alone. I’m not sure if it’s my deep desire for her to be recognized that’s informing my opinion, but I think Penélope Cruz will be joining the lineup. She’s picked up major critics prizes, but her performance is also one to which actors will flock. Just recently we saw actors like Lupita Nyong'o and Robin Wright take to social media to campaign for the actress. I think her trajectory will be similar to her husband when he was nominated for Biutiful. Both won a major international prize then saw no follow-up precursor nominations. Mounting buzz then lead to a surprise nomination. And we can’t discount the typical Sony Pictures Classics roll out. It may be an absolute pain for filmgoers but it clearly works with voters.
Matt St Clair: I agree with you on Cruz. That kind of passion could propel her into the final five despite her missing the BAFTA longlist. I'm just not sure who she takes out.
Too much? @eyesoftammyfaye pic.twitter.com/VYjsMoUhs3
— Jessica Chastain (@jes_chastain) January 26, 2022
I'm tempted to say Jessica Chastain because hardly anyone is talking about that movie anymore but that performance is Biopic Mimicry 101 and she's due for another nomination. Then there's Lady Gaga who is in a divisive movie but a huge star in a film that was a box office success durin the pandemic. Plus, she's campaigning like crazy.
I do think Cruz is likelier than someone like Alana Haim who has the benefit of being in a Best Picture contender (Licorice Pizza) but maybe hasn't inspired the same kind of industry passion.
Josh Bierman: I'm convinced Lady Gaga is about to run her mouth right out of an Oscar nomination. It's one thing to campaign hard, it's another thing to do so by saying the most inane things whenever given the opportunity.
i look at a different reaction every time pic.twitter.com/L3Kvo8NLrh
— alex (@alex_abads) January 14, 2022
I keep thinking back to that THR roundtable when she talks about feeling drunk from the prop drinks and everyone looks at her like she has three heads. Gaga's performance was good, but she was in a completely different movie than everyone else (not necessarily her fault). Someone like Chastain gave a great performance in a movie that wasn't very good, but at least it matched the tone of the movie. I can see the actors branch not giving it to Gaga this time. Especially when she was just nominated for a much better movie.
Matt St Clair: Actors thirsting for an Oscar is nothing new and I don't want to accuse Gaga, or other actresses, of being too wanting when plenty of men haven't been accused as such, but maybe she has gone overboard. About being on a different wavelength -- well, the movie doesn't know what tone it's aiming for. But regardless of whether the acting branch nominates Gaga or not, I don't think she's winning even if she's not on as shaky of ground as Kristen Stewart in terms of securing the nomination. At this point, Spencer feels like Kristen Stewart or bust (unfortunately).
Baby Clyde: Penélope has been #1 in my predictions for months. Initially because I really thought it was going to happen and more recently because I’m absolutely flummoxed as to what’s going on in this category. My main reason for keeping her around is that none of the contenders feel like winners (Does anyone really want Nicole to ger her 2nd Oscar for that?). Kidman and Colman are definitely getting nominated but I'm not convinced either is on a path to victory. Having been leading the pack since the beginning of the race, Kristen’s chances have flagged in recently weeks which knocks her off the top spot but with no one else properly taking her place.
There doesn’t seem to be muchh passion for anything which is why I think if she gets in Cruz could potentially win.
I think Lady Gaga is wonderful in House of Gucci. She’d easily get my vote from those in contention. I’m far more into Movie Star Gaga than her Pop Star incarnation. I’m also not so down on her chances as you seem to be. Cringy campaigning doesnt register with Academy voters the way it does with us Oscar obsessives. Many may even relate! She’ll get a lot of credit for headlining the sort of mid-budget adult drama that we don’t see enough of anymore and a sizeable box office hit to boot, solely based on her star power!
We can all agree that Chastain is the most vulnerable. I’ll almost certainly be cutting her. I just don’t see where her first place votes are coming from. The question is do I just replace her with Cruz or boot someone else and predict a resurgent JHud as well? I have a feeling it’s happening. Are the Academy going to show Jennifer any R.E.S.P.E.C.T? Will they give us an Acting/Original Song nominee combo for the 5th year in a row?
Matt St Clair: Well, the SAG nomination for Jennifer Hudson shows a sign of strength given the movie's early release. Plus, she's a previous Oscar winner playing a real-life person who was handpicked by said icon to play her. All those factors could only help her along. As will Best Original Song. The movie surrounding her isn't at the level of her performance, but as history has proven time and time again, voters don't care about an overall film's quality when it comes to biopic performances. The reviews for Chastain and Gaga's movies aren't all that much better than Hudson's.
As for Cruz, though, she does have clear passion which has me inclined to predict her to make the cut. I don't know about the win, though. I'm still sticking with Kidman as the frontrunner because of her recent Globe win and the PGA nomination for Being the Ricardos, indicating it could be up for Best Picture which is an advantage none of her competitors seem to have. Then again, Golden Globe winner Rachel Zegler is also in a Best Picture contender, but it's rare for someone to win a lead acting Oscar for their acting debut. Meanwhile, Chastain, Cruz, Gaga, Stewart, and Hudson aren't in films with as much broad support. Even The Lost Daughter feels like Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay only.
I don't know. They could just reward the true best actress of 2021, Tessa Thompson for Passing, or make it a tie between her and Renate Reinsve in The Worst Person in the World, but we don't live in such a reality.
Josh Bierman: I also think Tessa Thompson did beautiful work in Passing, but this is a category that doesn't usually go for quiet performances (especially this year). I'm not sure the comparisons to Negga are helping her either.
One person who we haven't brought up is the reigning Best Actress champ herself, Frances McDormand. While I enjoyed her interpretation of Lady M, I don't know if it necessarily warrants a nomination. However, the Academy loves her. Denzel is a slam dunk for a nomination, but do we think the folks who propelled Fran to a mildly surprising third win last year will be putting her on their ballots again? Five-time Fran has quite the ring to it...
Matt St Clair: Well, Frances McDormand quoting Macbeth in her Best Actress speech last year could be an omen. Also, like you said, AMPAS loves her even if with her clear apathy towards awards. But I think a nomination is as far as she'll go. Not only because she just won her third acting trophy but Lady Macbeth is a borderline supporting role. Not as supporting as the Witches or Lady Macduff, of course, but still a straddler. Do I think she could make it? Absolutely. With her track record, anything is possible. But I'm predicting she sits out this year.
Baby Clyde: I think the Academy may be done with her for a while. Her win last year was much deserved but once it happened it immediately felt like overkill. She’s a great actress. One of our best but having more Best Actress trophies than Bette Davis, Ingrid Bergman, Jane Fonda, Meryl Streep etcetera doesn’t feel right, especially whilst Glen Close still has zero wins! When people win in quick succession it’s quite common for the Academy to take a break. With so many other deserving contenders this year I can imagine voters not making a McDormand nomination a priority.
My #1 Best Actress of the year is Jasna Đuričić in my film of the year Quo Vadis, Aida? The problem is it’s a film with one of those weird release schedules that straddles two years and consequently gets a bit lost in the shuffle. It got nominations from BAFTA, Indie Spirits and Oscar's Best International Feature award for 2020 (so it's not eligible for the Oscars this year), but wasn’t officially released until well into 2021, winning big at the recent European Film Awards, making President Obama Best of 2021 list and even getting numerous nominations at our very own Film Experience Awards. Back in the 1960’s it was a common occurrence for films contending for the Foreign Language prize to turn up in open field categories at the following ceremony but that's no longer allowed. Still, there was no better leading actress performance in either year.
Matt St Clair: Jasna was amazing. Another great leading performance in a non-English language film in a year full of them. Not just Penelope Cruz and Jasna Duricic but Renate Reinsve in Norway's Oscar finalist The Worst Person in the World, Agathe Rousselle's gender-bending work in Titane, and Maren Eggert who won Best Actress at Berlinale for Germany's Oscar finalist I'm Your Man.
Josh Bierman: I'm eagerly awaiting the release of The Worst Person in the World this weekend. I wish I could have seen it before this conversation.
We've yet to address Kristen Stewart, who was once the most formidable contender in the bunch, but now even just a nomination is no sure thing. The Academy does love actors playing royals, so she has that going for her. Not to mention that the performance is excellent. The film itself is more divisive but at least strong choices were made. Most of these movies centering real people are run-of-the-mill biopics that we've seen before. Her omission from the SAG Best Actress line-up is worrisome. It's also a little surprising considering how long she's been working in the industry. She's worked with a lot of folks, so I'd have expected more support. She's another case like Cruz where there is a small group of cheerleaders, but they are vocal. I've seen Julianne Moore posting about her and working the circuit for her. But is that enough? A week and a half ago I thought she was still safe, but now I'm not so sure.
Matt St Clair: I think Stewart is at a point where the nomination itself would be the win because as great as she is, her chances are probably shaky because the movie is less of a biopic and more of a psychological drama that happens to center around Princess Diana. As you said, they tend to prefer biopics that are more traditional. Even when I first saw it, I sensed it wouldn't be AMPAS' cup of tea.
Baby Clyde: So who are our final predictions? I’m pretty sure Kristen Stewart still makes it so I’m going with:
- Nicole Kidman (Being The Ricardos)
- Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)
- Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
- Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
- Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
Although I VERY much want to include Penelope Cruz so I might change my prediction before the nominations. As is that’s really not a vintage lineup there.
Josh Bierman: Oh man, this is tough. BAFTA may change things, but on the other hand Penelope isn't even on the shortlist there, so maybe I'm just looking for excuses to cover my ass if these blow up in my face. Here we go:
- Nicole Kidman, Being The Ricardos
- Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
- Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
- Jennifer Hudson, Respect
- Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Breaks my heart to leave out Kristen Stewart, but maybe we'll be surprised.
Matt St Clair: Here's where I now stand:
- Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
- Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
- Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
- Jennifer Hudson, Respect
- Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Pains me to leave Stewart off but I think she'll just miss the cut. Hope I'm proven wrong.
Only three women are predicted by all three of us - Colman, Hudson, and Kidman. Do you agree?