Team Experience is discussing the various Oscar categories. Here's Baby Clyde and Juan Carlos Ojano discussing Best Actress.
CARLOS: A two-time Oscar winner gunning for her third, a rising star playing a Hollywood legend in a highly divisive film, a character actress getting an overdue recognition, a recurring nominee playing Steven Spielberg's mother, and an international star in the role of a lifetime in the Best Picture frontrunner. It's quite an exciting mix of actresses plucked from a highly competitive field.
But we would be remiss if we don't address the elephant in the room, to just get it out of the way...
After a surprise inclusion (and exclusions), the polarizing response to those, and an internal investigation, I think we do have enough distance for the dust to settle and just talk about the five nominated actresses and their work. Or do we?
BABY CLYDE: It was touch and go for a while, when it looked like this conflama might overwhelm Oscar season, but thankfully Frances Fisher's omnipotent Instagram account has faded from the headlines and we can concentrate on the great performances that did make it into the final list. Having said that, I've long believed that blaming Academy members for the frequent lack of diversity in nominations misses the point.
Voters aren't responsible for the scripts that get written, or the films that are green lit, the placements at festivals, the response from critics or the choices made by precursor awards. By the time the Academy gets to have any input at all, the fields has been winnowed down to just a few contenders and that field doesn't tend to have much variety.
The problem this year of course, is that none of that was true. The films were made and treated as prestige pictures from the start, with high profiles, campaign funds and all the awards recognition necessary to grab The Academy's attention, AND THE BLACK WOMEN STILL GOT SNUBBED!!!
This is a terrible look. My immediate tweet summed it up:
Best Actress is YIKES 😬
— Baby Clyde’s Oscars (@BabyClydeOscars) January 24, 2023
It's a problem that needs addressing even if I have no solutions to offer. What I do know is that Andrea Riseborough wasn't to blame and the ill-informed backlash she received after her surprise nomination was entirely unwarranted. It goes without saying that the majority of those complaining hadn't actually seen the performance.
But let's get the competition at hand. Cate's got this in the bag, right???
CARLOS: I would have agreed 100% with it until Michelle Yeoh won SAG and got that response. Also take into consideration the film's sweep that night and the overall response to the cast during that ceremony.
Much has been said about the SAG vs BAFTA stats which do favor Blanchett, but sometimes you just have to take a temperature check. EEAAO has been sweeping at the guilds, disproving that the film might strugglewith the industry, particularly its older members. There seems to be genuine love for the film (save BAFTA). And that's what gets me. If there is so much love for the film, would the industry even bother looking away from the gargantuan performance at its core?
Couple it with other coexisting narratives - Yeoh has never been nominated for an Oscar, Yeoh is the first openly Asian actress to be nominated, Yeoh would be the first Asian to win Best Actress - and you have the perfect storm to back Yeoh emerging as the victor. And lucky for us, we did see the embodiment of a potential win for her during the SAG Awards. With both SAG winners Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Huy Quan basically doing FYC speeches for Yeoh and then Yeoh winning, Yeoh is definitely making a strong case to surprise as the next Oscar winner.
To even call Yeoh a surprise seems weird, but that is really because pre-SAG, Blanchett was the true sweeper of this category. Tár even overperformed in Oscar nominations (getting an impressive total of six), signaling that this could have been a smooth sailing path for her to win a third Oscar. In recent years, SAG vs BAFTA splits in Actress tend to favor the winner in the latter (Davis vs McDormand, Close vs Colman, Davis vs Streep). But EEAAO being an awards juggernaut does give me pause. Also, previous years have BAFTA airing last in the televised awards. This year, it's SAG.
So even during our conversation, I am still undecided! It might seem futile at this point predictions-wise, but where do you think the other three nominees stand?
BABY CLYDE: Have to say I totally agree. That SAG win does suggest a last-minute change in the narrative. But has if come too late? Blanchett has been sweeping. Still this year is refreshingly unstable with very few locks across the 23 categories. After years of predictable Oscar ceremonies, this one could be full of shockers. Being firmly #TeamYeoh, I’d be delighted by her winning.
As I’ve been saying all year, Michelle Yeoh could have starred in Tár but Cate Blanchett could not have pulled off Everything Everywhere All At Once.
The thing that gives me pause is Academy voter’s resistance to making great Oscar moments. Blanchett would be a deserving winner but it won’t be a memorable win. Yeoh on the other hand will be a historic win for the ages. Never underestimate The Academy ability to make the dullest choice imaginable. I’ll never forgive them for wasting a Best Actress award on 22 year old Jennifer Lawrence when 86 year old Emmanuelle Riva was right there, ON HER BIRTHDAY!!! I’m keeping my fingers crossed but expectations low.
As for the others, I think we can agree they have a slim-to-none chance of winning but that’s not to say they wouldn’t be deserving in other years. In order of personal preference, Riseborough would be this year's Indie darling if it wasn’t for the circumstances of her nomination. It’s an astonishing performance which hugely deserves its nomination.
Williams on nomination #5 is fast becoming overdue and in other circumstances would be a strong contender. This time round, category confusion (voters got it right) and a divisive performance in a film that has lost all momentum mean that this isn’t her time.
Which leaves De Armas who is certainly not to blame for her films many faults but for me failed to convince as the most iconic Movie Star of them all. She gives a fine performance but the odd accent slip and fact she looks nothing like Marilyn Monroe left me underwhelmed. It’s really hard to make an impact when everything surrounding the performance is so objectionable.
How do you rank these ladies? Would you like to see any of them triumph?
CARLOS: I would love to see Andrea Riseborough win for To Leslie! I was lucky enough to have watched the film just a day before Oscar nominations were announced, just to see what the fuss was about with that last-minute campaign. And oh my goodness, I was floored. I am familiar with her work but here she takes it to another level. To see her give this character dignity and empathy even when she reaches her lowest low, to have a physicality and expressivity that feels holistic and fully formed, it's just a fantastic showcase. I thought that the vocal support for her work within the actors' circles and the backlash to the backlash would give an urgency to push this to a surprise victory, but I guess the top two contenders are in more widely seen films. But again, I am ecstatic for this nomination.
As for Michelle Williams, there was a point sometime last year when I was entertaining the possibility of her possibly winning. To have her portray Spielberg's mother in a default Best Picture frontrunner and for a four-time nominee still waiting for her first win seemed like a compelling narrative, but that immediately crashed as soon as we realized that there were other films that had more passion in Best Picture (EEAAO, The Banshees of Inisherin, heck even Top Gun: Maverick). As for the performance, I know it's divisive, but I admire her commitment to that character. Her interpretation of Mitzi Fabelman is an unapologetic presence, one that truly occupies space and with an unpredictable rhythm to it. And I respect that - I love seeing Williams be this in character. I also agree with the category placement; this is a big performance and character and her importance resonance even in the parts without Williams' physical presence. Her screentime is also well-distributed throughout the film so I buy the placement. In my opinion, it's too big to be in supporting.
Ana de Armas started as a frontrunner before the film screened. Once it did, the film was polarizing and people immediately dropped her from their predictions. However, the mainstream awards bodies responded to her work, "bringing her back" to the conversation. Personally, as with Williams, I respect de Armas's commitment to the performance. Not the reenactments (but they do help), but to find some semblance of a footing within Andrew Dominik's nightmarish vision and be emotionally present in the moment. I didn't mind the accent because I do think it adds to the performative aspect of "Marilyn Monroe" as a persona coming from Norma Jeane. My problem actually lies from the monotony of this performance, due to the adherence to what the film was going for. The material severely limits what de Armas does with the character. It's hard to find varying notes and I am not sure she even wanted to. Not being able to subvert the material is the performance's glaring fault.
My personal ranking would be:
As for predictions... oh dear, oh gosh:
What would be your personal ranking? And predictions too? I need some guidance!
BABY CLYDE: We’re in total agreement on Riseborough. Before I’d seen or even read anything about the film, I only knew it was a tiny Indie about a recovering alcoholic. As it starred Andrea Riseborough, I’d assumed it was maybe a British period piece set in a gritty Northern town or something. The first few minutes, when I realised she was convincingly playing a modern day Texas woman blew my mind. The range!!! A last minute, cut and paste Twitter campaign did seem a bit cringe and I never for one minute thought it was going to work. But it shouldn’t have been necessary. She should have been in the discussion all season. It’s my favourite performance but not the one I’m actually rooting for.
If I’m honest I was slightly underwhelmed by both Cate Blanchett and Tár. It’s impressive work but most of the most interesting and dramatic action takes place off screen. I don’t think I’ve ever encountered a film that was so unwilling to engage its audience. I wanted to see Lydia Tar confronting her accusers or wrangling with the board who are trying to dismiss her. Those scenes would have been epic. Instead, we’re told everything and shown nothing. This left me frustrated for the performance that could have been. It didn’t help that the film wasn’t released in the UK until January and whilst I could have seen it before that would have meant watching on my laptop and I wanted to experience it on the big screen. I suspect my expectation were too high having heard nothing but raves for three months. I was left underwhelmed. If she was Oscarless I’d be fully onboard, but I see no reason for a third when there is an icon of International Cinema giving the performance of her life ready and waiting.
My personal ranking would be:
1. Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Cate Blanchett - Tár
(big gap)
4. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
5. Ana de Armas - Blonde
As for predictions…You’ve convinced me. No guts no glory:
1. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Cate Blanchett - Tár
3. Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie
4. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
5. Ana de Armas - Blonde
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