Oscar Volley: "Avatar" versus what in Best Visual Effects?

Team Experience is discussing each Oscar category in the lead up to the ceremony. Here's Abe Fried-Tanzer and Nick Taylor to discuss Visual Effects.

Black Panther Wakanda Forever

ABE FRIED-TANZER: Hey Nick! Here we are discussing the category with the most stages of finalists, giving us a window into what could have been. I appreciated the inclusion of interesting choices like Bardo, Good Night Oppy, and RRR on the initial twenty-wide list, and was pulling for Nope and Thirteen Lives to move on from the next stage of ten. But none of that happened, and we’re left instead with five very different choices, none of which are based on original material.

There are some intriguing stats to share about these nominees, like that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever placed, but its predecessor (which scored a Best Picture mention) didn't in the same race...

Similarly, Top Gun: Maverick scores a first for the franchise, whose 1986 original merited a few technical bids but not for visual effects. A James Cameron movie - Aliens - won that year - and that appears to be our frontrunner this time too, with Avatar: The Way of Water. What’s your initial take on the competition?

NICK TAYLOR: It’s a solid list, though I find myself spending more time thinking about films I wish had been nominated or gotten further consideration than some of our nominees. I can’t pretend Mad God ever had a shot, but the inability of Everything Everywhere All At Once and Nope to get a real foothold in this race still confuses me. It doesn’t help that Avatar is so far ahead of its competition that Visual Effects is probably the most sewn-up craft category this season. My stat input is that this is the first lineup since 2015 not to have any lone nominees - all five films have at least one other nom somewhere else, and three of them are Best Picture nominees.

The Batman

I don’t wanna sound too grouchy about this slate, even if these choices feel slightly unadventurous. Aside from the Wakanda Forever nomination, which I have absolutely no time for, there’s plenty of strong work to be found in All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, and Top Gun: Maverick. Any of them might have been worthy winners in a different year. And of course, Avatar: The Way of Water deserves to trounce this category as fully as its predecessor did in 2009. Who do you think is running second?

ABE: I hear you on all this and I did forget to mention EEAAO, which of course would have been a great inclusion given its dazzling visuals. Avatar has it sewn up since it uses such time-consuming, advanced technology. I would actually put All Quiet on the Western Front as the likeliest spoiler given its tech categories overperformance and the fact that it’s a masterful recreation of a never-ending battle. 1917 won this category a few years ago and a World War I repeat wouldn’t be all that out of the question.

All Quiet on the Western Front

But, in some cases, films that have had decent showings in other races end up with just this win. I don’t see Avatar winning elsewhere and this feels like an easy get. Say what you will about the film as a whole but its effects work is formidable. If Top Gun: Maverick hadn’t missed out in a few places, I might be more inclined to believe in it as a spoiler.

NICK: I would agree with All Quiet as the likeliest spoiler, even if I don’t believe it’s going to pull it off. There’s the intangible factors - it made the Best Picture field, it’s the most nominated film to make Visual Effects lineup - and it’s own cinematic merits.  Berger’s insistence on hyperrealistic violence creates some impressively grueling scenes of violence and destruction. Compare it against recent war winners like 1917, and the battle scenes are still horrifically well-executed.

You bring up an interesting point about this race as a place to reward films that may not have a shot elsewhere. Wakanda Forever looks poised to win Supporting Actress for Angela Bassett and might repeat the Costume Design win. I’m not sure The Batman has a great shot for either of its nominations, but it probably has a better shot at Makeup & Hairstyling than Visual Effects. Meanwhile, All Quiet, Avatar, and Maverick are competing in a lot of categories. Does Top Gun go home empty handed if it doesn’t win here? If it takes this prize is it gonna show well all night? Am I silly to even momentarily imagine anything but Avatar named?

Top Gun Maverick

ABE: I like to look stats even though they're only helpful until something comes along to change them. The biggest surprise in this category that I could remember was in 2007 when The Golden Compass defeated Transformers (Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End was the third nominee). But compare Transformers with Avatar and they're not even on the same level. In 2015, Ex Machina triumphed, but I don't think there was a clear frontrunner there with Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens all in the mix. Even if it's not a 100% lock to win (which, admittedly, it probably is), Avatar: The Way of Water is indisputably the frontrunner.

Top Gun: Maverick going home empty-handed is not out of the question at all. While some say it could win Best Picture, I don't buy it. Adapted Screenplay isn't happening and Song seems unlikely too. Film editing or sound, on the other hand, could easily come through, so I don't think this will be a place to reward the film. I think it's possible that All Quiet wins if and only if it also wins in other technical races, but I think it's just as possible that it could go home empty-handed!

But we're getting away from this category, which sadly isn't as interesting. Avatar: The Way of Water will not be an undeserving winner, so let's just get ready for it.

NICK: It will be a tremendously deserving winner. I want to reiterate that the quality of the field is more impressive than its inevitable victory would make it seem. I hope Payakan gets to give a little acceptance speech alongside James Cameron. Or maybe they’ll let him introduce Avatar's Best Picture reel! It’s what he deserves.

Avatar: The Way of Water

RELATED
All Quiet on the Western Front wins 7 BAFTAs
Split Decision: Avatar: The Way of Water
Nathaniel's Film Bitch Nominees in Visual FX
Oscar Polls - Visual Categories