BAFTA goes its own way and shakes up the race
Sunday, February 19, 2023 at 6:56PM 
After it earned 14 out of 15 possible nominations, we should have known that All Quiet on the Western Front was a major threat as far as the BAFTAs were concerned. And yet, this seemed like The Banshees of Inisherin's time to shine. Well, the British Academy has announced their victors, and though they loved Martin McDonagh's latest, it couldn't defeat Edward Berger's Netflix juggernaut. The German Oscar submission won seven awards, including Best Film and Director. Banshees had to settle for four prizes, the same number of wins Elvis amassed. Beyond those three, no other title managed to take home more than one statuette, not even the the Oscar frontrunner Everything Everywhere All At Once.
But what does it all mean? Let's assess after the jump…
- BEST FILM: All Quiet on the Western Front, Malte Grunert
The German WWI drama wins the top prize only three years after 1917 did the same. Perhaps the lesson is that we should never underestimate these sorts of narratives regarding this organization. Furthermore, one should note that this joins Roma, Jean de Florette, Lacombe Lucien, Day for Night, Ballad of a Soldier, Gervaise, The Wages of Fear, Forbidden Games, La Ronde, and Bicycle Thieves in the group of non-English-language Best Film winners. In that regard, the British Academy is ahead of the Academy, though only Roma represents a step beyond European cinema.
Oscar-wise, this is terrible news for The Banshees of Inisherin. If it couldn't win here, it surely won't do better with AMPAS, right?
- BEST DIRECTOR: Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Berger's victory is shocking when one considers how often BAFTA gives this prize to Oscar nominees. For perspective, you have to go back to Ben Affleck and Argo in 2012 for another example, and Pedro Almodóvar in 1999 before him. This tells us that the race is still flexible despite the Daniels' DGA triumph.
- BEST LEADING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Is Blanchett going to sweep? She's the only acting contender still in that position. We'll see if SAG continues her victory lap or if they'll go with Yeoh. I hope for the latter to keep up the suspense if nothing else.
- BEST LEADING ACTOR: Austin Butler, Elvis
If Farrell was going to win the Oscar, one supposed he'd have won the BAFTA. Right now, this race is about Butler vs. Fraser, with the younger actor having the advantage of being in a Best Picture nominee and the Academy's pro-biopic bias.
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Now, this pair feels like a BAFTA-only phenomenon. Ke Huy Quan is still the undisputed favorite for the Oscar, while Bassett can cement her chances with one more imperious speech if she wins the SAG. Still, the Supporting Actress category seems more open to surprises than its male counterpart.
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: All Quiet on the Western Front, Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
We may be looking at our Oscar winners in the screenplay categories. Nevertheless, don't discount the possibility of an EEAAO sweep and the writerly showiness of Women Talking.
- BEST EDITING: Everything Everywhere All At Once, Paul Rogers
This editing achievement is so in your face that not even the competition of BAFTA's three favorite films could prevent it from winning. The Oscar feels sewn up. Though, of course, you never know.
- BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: All Quiet on the Western Front, James Friend
I'd assume Friend had the Oscar in the bag if it weren't for the ASC snub. The last time a film won the Cinematography Academy Award without a precursor nod from the guild was back in 2006 with Pan's Labyrinth. Maybe history will repeat itself with an international contender winning despite that persnickety stat.
- BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Babylon, Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino
Paired with its recent ADG victory, this is a strong sign that Babylon is the one to beat. A revisionist sojourn through Hollywood history starring Brad Pitt winning Best Production Design… where have we seen this before?
- BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Elvis, Catherine Martin
- BEST MAKE UP & HAIR: Elvis, Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston & Shane Thomas
These feel like the present frontrunners. Never bet against Martin in a costume race or biopic mimicry in make-up categories.
- BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar: The Way of Water, Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri & Eric Saindon
Nothing to see here, just everything going according to expectations. Congratulations on your future Oscar win, gentlemen.
- BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: All Quiet on the Western Front, Volker Bertelmann
- BEST SOUND: All Quiet on the Western Front, Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prasil & Markus Stemler
That score win is wild, considering the minimalistic style of Bertelmann's compositions. Could it repeat these successes with the Academy? Maybe, but I'm skeptical.
- BEST CASTING: Elvis, Denise Chamian & Nikki Barrett
Though at first glance, this seemed like an easy win for EEAAO, it wasn't. Curious to see if SAG follows suit, awarding their ensemble prize to one of the other nominees - Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans and Women Talking.
- BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar & Alexander Bulkley
- BEST DOCUMENTARY: Navalny, Daniel Roher, Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller & Odessa Rae
- BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE: All Quiet on the Western Front, Edward Berger & Malte Grunert
It seems as if these are our big winners of the season, give or take Disney's power in the Animated race. Could Turning Red still surprise on Oscar night? I think so, and, hey, stranger things have happened.
- OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM OF THE YEAR: The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent & Peter Czernin
- OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR, OR PRODUCER: Aftersun, Charlotte Wells
- BEST BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, Peter Baynton, Charlie Mackesy, Cara Speller & Hannah Minghella
- BEST BRITISH SHORT FILM: An Irish Goodbye, Tom Berkeley & Ross White
In these categories, everything was as expected. Nevertheless, here's a round of applause to the amazing Charlotte Wells, fresh of her DGA win. One must also wonder if these anglophone shorts will triumph at the Oscars. Historically, the Academy has been quite friendly to international short films, which is good news for the competition. I am crossing my fingers for an Ice Merchants win.
What did you think of the BAFTA wins? How much do they affect the Oscar race, if at all?
Reader Comments (36)
My guess is that first the first time in forever (ever?) all four acting winners don't match between Oscar and BAFTA. Fraser, Yeoh, Quan, Bassett all seem to me like Oscar favorites at this point. (With BAFTA making a superior pick in each case but Quan!)
After losing here, I’m now OK with Quan and Bassett winning Oscars if that happens. Neither of those are sweep-worthy performances. But it really was stunning to see a televised award show dare to vote how they actually felt. I’m sure they’ll get plenty of shit too for voting for what they thought was the best. Oh well.
That Butler win…wow, that’s probably going to repeat at Oscar and it’s going to probably age terribly. He’s clearly the #5 of the category. Why reward SNL-type mimicry?
The big question is how many of these winners repeat?
Qwhite a list of winners!
I want Yeoh to win the Oscar but I'm pretty sure at this point Cate will sweep.
"Though at first glance, this seemed like an easy win for EEAAO, it seems not. Curious to see if SAG follows suit..."
I don't know what you mean by that, since Elvis isn't nominated for Best Ensemble at SAG and, furthermore, I don't understand why everyone keeps insisting on equating Best Casting with Best Ensemble, as they are two very different things.
Richter Scale -- Apologies, I wrote this in a rush and messed up. Anyway, I mainly was trying to refer to the possibility of EEAAO's losing the SAG though it feels like the favorite. I have corrected the article accordingly. Thanks for pointing it out :)
You are correct that casting and ensemble acting aren't the same. However, I'd argue their distinction makes an ELVIS win even weirder. After all, isn't Hanks's casting one aspect that sometimes makes even that movie's fans falter in their praise? And isn't so much of EEAAO's campaign story about its casting process? How Yeoh came to transform the project after a version of it had been envisioned with Jackie Chan, how Ke Huy Quan got an opportunity to return to the big screen, how they gave Stephanie Hsu this fantastic role, turning her from an unknown entity to an Oscar nominee?
Maybe I'm wrong, but that was my perception.
Someone tell me if I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure this year’s director race has produced the most variety of winners since 2004.
2023: Spielberg (GG), Kwan/Scheinert (DGA), Berger (BAFTA)
2004: Eastwood (GG, DGA, Oscar), Scorsese (Critics Choice), Leigh (BAFTA)
Pretty sure we haven’t had a year of 3 different winners for televised awards (and DGA) in between. Insane we have to wait nearly 2 decades for variety.
The real moment belonged to Kerry Condon who won Best Supporting Actress for The Banshees of Inisherin. In a flashback to the Oscar's Moonlight and La La Land debacle, Carey Mulligan was first announced as the victor. The error was not broadcast. The moment was almost immediately corrected.
Condon was nonplussed and made a moving speech thanking the late Alan Parker for giving her first first acting gig at age 16. Her comments regarding being an Irish actress and her career long work with Martin McDonagh were moving. The highlight of her speech was thanking her horses and her dogs who give her "so much love and meaning in her life."
The wins for Banshees aren’t surprising, I’d expect them to have the advantage at BAFTA. Butler taking Best Actor doesn’t convince me that Farrell is out of the race - I feel safe in assuming he was the runner-up here. And while an Oscar for Michelle Yeoh would be lovely, I have no faith in the Academy and can totally see Cate cruising her way to a (well-earned) third win. Fingers crossed for some surprises at the remaining ceremonies, though.
Not gagging. Don't love war movies, but we love to see some variety.
Yay for Condon and Blanchett.
I'm ok with Butler. He did wonderful even if I prefer Farrell performance a lot.
The prize that is the big head scratcher is All Quiet in cinematography. I think that it had some beautiful moments in the ext. scenes, but the interoris lights scream stage.
I expected more love for Tàr from a European prize (that movie is so Haneke) taking home something more like directing.
The All Quiet on the Western Front sweep is such a breath of fresh air. More of the major awards shows should do what the BAFTAs are doing = stop trying to predict the Oscars.
Ke Huy Quan's 24/7 weeping in front of voters couldn't win him a BAFTA. That's also refreshing. It almost feels like some voters have integrity.
Although I want Yeoh to win the Oscar, I think Cate will win now. Papa's Pizzeria is one of the best installment in papa louie series and one of the greatest cooking and restaurant management games.
I watch the Baftas every year and it's always dull.
Grant was ok as host but seemed nervous but happy.
Barry K winning was the most surprising and most deserving and a great speech.
I don't think Bassett is locked for the Oscar,Condon could pull a Tilda Swinton.
It's a three way Best Actor race that i'm feeling Butler takes it a la Malek
Looks likely Cate will win which would be disappointing.
Loved the Sandy Powell tribute.
Was the red carpet arrivals broadcast because I wasn't aware acting nominees Fraser,Deadwyler,Mulligan,De Armas,De Leon,Redmayne had shown up.
Yavor, agreed—All Quiet on the Western Front was never gonna set Film Twitter on fire but politically, aesthetically, cinematically it’s a very special and well made “war movie.” It’s so so so easy to dismiss in 2023 (look at how untraditional this BP list is, in a great way!) but I’m happy it has a moment here.
I’m also surprised its lead actor hasn’t gotten more love, he and Diego Calva were the discoveries of the year for me, in addition to Hsu. I prefer what all of those actors did to the Elvis performance, which I agree with others won’t age well. Butler was a few notches above Rami Malek and a notch or two below Edgerton as Elton, as these things go.
Also, Baz has lost his touch, it’s insulting to treat Elvis as a “return to form.” A great directorial effort wouldn’t have disfigured 40% of the movie with Hanks’ terrible performance, it wouldn’t have allowed the story to feel so sloppy and poorly paced.
After Butler's win I'm reminded that comeback narratives are not always that strong, especially against biopics. Mickey Rourke lost against Sean Penn's Milk and Michael Keaton lost against Eddie Redmayne's Stephen Hawking.
It wouldn't really be surprising to see Elvis win, especially after the amount of support AMPAS showed the movie.
While I fully expect EEAAO to cement its frontrunner status by winning both the PGA and the SAG for Best Ensemble this weekend, at this point I’m kind of rooting for those to go to, say, Top Gun and Banshees of Inisherin, respectively, just to put all us Oscar predictors in a state of complete confusion heading into the ceremony.
i know it wasn't great news for Colin that he couldn't win last night, but Claudio, i'm still mystified by saying it's between Fraser and Butler. i think Colin might still very well win...he has A LOT of ex-co-stars and fans in Hollywood...far more than Fraser and Butler combined. and i think Fraser is a distant third...he's won very, very little so far (sorry, Critics Choice is not a real thing despite online critics pretending it is). maybe this is bias since i think The Whale is so bad, but his film is much more divisive than Banshees. ultimately, i guess i'm saying that i won't be surprised if either Butler, Farrell, or Fraser wins...it's a genuine three-man race.
similar with supp actress. i won't be surprised if Bassett wins, but i don't think she will at end of day. banshees is going to win some major award, so Condon might be the spot where they choose to place their chips. i just think most of these categories aren't nearly as locked as people think they are. we have genuine races this year, in a super fun way.
@MrRipley79-"Looks likely Cate will win which would be disappointing." Why? Did you watch the movie?
I disagree with the rest of the comments about Butler. You can see that he totally put himself in the role and really elevated it bringing high energy. But his best credit is to go above the writing of the charchter that for me was quite bidimensional. I invite you to think about it whitout the prejudice that we have for biopic performances (and we all have it). I couldn't argue why Mescal should be considered superior. I think that all the credit that a lot of people are giving him for Aftersun belong to the character and the directing than his actual performance.
Jumped off the couch when Barry won. So deserved. There shouldn’t be one winner steamrolling the season in this category. Barry’s performance was heartbreaking and to win against a costar who is a colead is amazing.
If Banshees is not taking screenplay at the Oscars, Kerry Condon will be Banshees’ Oscar. I think Quan, Butler and Blanchett are solid now.
@PP92: I watched the movie, and it's extremely overrated. Her performance is very good but not the all-timer it's being made out to be. Dramatic performances are given more benefit than other types of performances (i.e. Yeoh's dramatic/action/comedy mashup) for these awards by default.
Unlikely that Cate is not winning after this. Coincidentally the Blue Jasmine season also had different BAFTA acting winners apart from her but I do think Butler will also repeat and Fraser cannot overcome biopic and BP support. Just 2 years ago BAFTA winners were almost completely repeated by the Oscars by the way but at the time it felt inplausible...
Butler rises above the chaotic editing and boring screenplay. Costumes and makeup are also strong parts of the movie so to me Elvis is a deserving winner in these categories.
I concur about Condon's sweet speech and the lovely tribute for Sandy Powell. Costume designers deserve this kinda celebration.
EEAAO is still likely to win original screenplay over McDonagh Get Out style but adapted will probably match.
The case of AQOTWF really cannot be viewed outside the current events. Since last year already saw a streamer winning BP, maybe this'll be the time Netflix breaks through. Never underestimate "we want to feel important" votes.
PP92 yes saw the movie one of my favourites from 2022,Cate I thought was excellent as always but the performance of Mia Goth in Pearl is the equivalent of what Cate's doing for her director's vision plus Yeoh and Deadwyler impressed me more.
Spread the wealth I say,I'd have preferred if Daniel Day Lewis had received his 3rd for Phantom Thread and not Lincoln,I'd have also liked Nicholson to win his 3rd for About Schmidt and not the film he won for,Meryl's 3rd for me should have been Silkwood,Bridges or The Post.
Cate Blanchett is clearly winning at this point. Her performance in Tár is the best of the year bar none, and Cate's win will instantly become one of the very best in the category.
Even though I like Cate's performance a bit more, I really really want Michelle to get the Oscar for best actress. I mean, Cate already won two and she will have more opportunities to win. When will we get another WOC win as best actress again? Only once it happened in 94 years. This is a perfect time to have another; great reviewed and well liked performance and performer; great box office and one of best picture frontrunners. What else will it take?
Also, I am of two minds with BAFTA going their own way. It's great to spread the wealth but if they love Banshees that much, why can't they give it best picture? Instead, the categories they deviate are the categories where the favorite is a POC (Quan) and the other is where the co favorite is also POC (Bassett). It's fine that they deviate from favorites but it's unfortunate it happens to both of them.
Regarding best actor, another year, another biopic win. I think Austin is great so he will make a good winner but it's so deflating that great performance like Colin's will always has uphill battle. If Colin couldn't even win BAFTA, I can't see avenue he can win Oscar. I will be shocked if he wins SAG; which I think will go to Austin also.
Cate Blanchett did deliver the best performance (male or female) in 2022. That alone should make any feminist out there happy to some extent.
Some time will pass. A couple of years or five, and the people whose minds are currently clouded by Film Twitter and identity politics will at the very least admit to themselves in private that the aforementioned performance is the one which indeed stands out.
Reductive or not, at the end of the day Michelle Yeoh (a wonderful actress) does a mom role with action scenes.
The "why shouldn't non-white actors get Oscars / Oscar nods for mediocre performances" rhetoric naturally makes me want to puke. Any person making such statements is clearly not interested in Oscar history and fails to notice that pundits and critics regularly point out the mediocre wins and nods.
Take a look at how Amy Adams' work in Arrival has aged (hint: brilliantly) compared to Ruth Negga's work in Loving (hint: no one cares about this movie or performance).
Meh.
If you're going to dare to be different then make a movie that's actually good the winner. There were plenty of great foreign films to choose from.
Please don't let Austin Butler win. Even though he is by far the best thing about the movie, Elvis is such a terrible, terrible film. It also would be really unfair to Taron Egerton who was better than both Malek and Butler, and not even nominated.
Glad about Kerry Condon. Angela Basset winning is also hilarious to me.
@Yavor,
It's alright to prefer one performance to the other; but to describe Michelle's performance as mom role with action scenes is, as you mentioned, extremely reductive. It takes a special skill and talent to that performance that shouldn't be dismissed that easily.
And also, there is no need to argue about Oscar history. We all know it's not just about quality of performance but there are many factors involved. It is fine that you think Cate gave best performance but there are others who didn't and I will stand by my opinion that if Michelle wins, it will not be looked down upon and will be well regarded. If Cate wins, that's great also; both are acclaimed performances so please don't belittle performances that you don't like just because you want someone else to win.
Drew, please do everybody a favor and stop reducing everything down to race. It's gross and demeaning to the PoC contenders. BAFTA picking Keoghan and Conlon is not representative of anything other than the voters preferring those performances. You think they should have gamed the system and made sure they picked the 'correct' winners on their ballots?
Neither Ke Huy Quan and Angela Bassett are lighting up the screen in their respective films. Michelle Yeoh is great but she's up against a force of nature in Blanchett. The notion that voters should opt for Yeoh over Blanchett because of her ethnicity is appalling, especially as you concede Blanchett is better in her movie. Yeoh is good enough to win on her own merit - she doesn't need you fixing it for her.
EricB -- I hope you're right. Truthfully, I predict a lot of stuff based on pessimism. Since Farrell is my favorite of the Best Actor frontrunners, I'm perhaps too quick to discard him in the face of Butler's BAFTA win.
Everyone -- Remember that art is subjective, there's no objectively superior performance. So defend your favorites and know your opinion is valid. However, don't act as if wanting someone else to win is to go against a self-evident absolute truth. Please and thank you :)
Personally, none of the Academy's Best Actress nominees even make my ballot, so the level of hyperbole going on in this comment section is a bit funny to read.
@Denny,
It's not my intention to reduce everything to race. As I mentioned, I preferred Blanchett's performance but I want Michelle to win because she also gave wonderful performance and it's perfect time to reward her as another WOC to win best actress. So it's not only about her race but she also has performance. I am in the camp that always think that nobody really needs that many Oscars as there are many talents that can be recognized.
And I respect your opinion about Quan and Bassett; I am just saying it's unfortunate considering BAFTA history in rewarding minorities but I never insinuate that either Barry or Kerri are not win worthy. They are both wonderful; so pleas do not twist my opinion into something that it is not.
Felt so proud when they were like NOPE to the Quan/Bassett nonsense but then they threw it away with Butler.
I disagree that the Quan momentum is "nonsense" because I love his performance as Waymond.
However—I think BAFTA has the most integrity of all the major awards. They cut through a lot of Hollywood BS with their choices, not all the time, but fairly regularly. Notice last year's Best Actress winner (Joanna Scanlan, After Love) vs. the Oscar winner who didn't make their top five.
In Hollywood, Jessica Chastain was an "overdue" star with a poorly received but very conveniently timed *showy* *biopic* in an open year. In the UK, they didn't care. That's enough to win an Oscar but it won't guarantee you a BAFTA. BAFTA's not perfect but they have standards you won't find elsewhere.
It's encouraging to see that some people are still working to maintain their websites. I'll make sure to come back shortly. It's very incredible.read more
I’m okay with these awards though I’m still hoping Michelle Yeoh steals it on Oscar night. I didn’t enjoy Tar but Cate is good. Relieved that Empire of Light didn’t win anything; wow, I really disliked that film. Not even Deakins’ cinematography could save it.
I might be an outlier, but I liked Elvis and Butler’s performance. I would watch it 5 times in a row over another 10 minutes of some of the other Oscar nominees for Best Picture.
@Yavor. Still reductive. And actually false. It says more about you than about the performance.