by Nathaniel R
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Colman Domingo (Rustin) are both working the classic 'biopic' angle
As with the first round of Best Supporting Actor predictions, we're opting to pretend that the strike will be resolved in time for most of the movies that are scheduled for awards season to continue with their current plans. We use the word "pretend" because it feels increasingly likely that this awards season will be an unprecented combo of fewer than usual releases and zero celebrity campaigning. We hope the studio powers-that-be will wake from their incessant greed and learn to share the wealth with the people without whom they can't make money (actors/writers) but we're not going to hold out breath lest we asphyxiate.
On to Best Actor. This category is often heavy on biographical 'great men' roles and there's little reason to expect this year will be any different. Cillian Murphy, Colman Domingo, Bradley Cooper, Joaquin Phoenix, and Adam Driver will all potentially benefit from that tried and true awards-appeal genre...
Those aren't the only biographical roles but they're the ones that fit most neatly into what people think of when they think 'biopic' roles. Other men playing real life albeit much less famous characters are Leonardo DiCaprio, Zac Efron, Callum Turner, Paul Dano, and Gael Garcia Bernal.
We're usually more interested in the fictional roles since we like being surprised and the actors have to craft three dimensional characters with only the screenplay and their own imaginations. On the fictional character front we're most curious (sight unseen) about Andre Holland (The Actor) and Andrew Scott (The Stranger). In terms of Oscar predictions for fictional leading men we're most bullish about Paul Giamatti in Alexander Payne's latest dramedy The Holdovers and Barry Keoghan in Emerald Fennell's Saltburn.
First still from "Saltburn" from Amazon/MGM
Now it's true that Saltburn doesn't sound all that Oscar-bound on paper. The synopsis goes like so...
A college student (Barry Keoghan) develops an infatuation with a charismatic classmate (Jacob Elordi), who invites him to meet his aristocratic but eccentric family over the summer
It sounds a smidgeon Talented Mr Ripley-ish, no? Despite the reservations about it probably not fitting neatly into an Oscar 'genre', the Academy is getting more adventures. Most importantly, momentum matters a lot with industry awards and Saltburn could benefit from quite a lot of it. Barry Keoghan is fresh off a deserved and highly-regarded nomination for a well loved film (Banshees of Inisherin). He's got a very strong and currently popular supporting cast (Jacob Elordi, Rosamund Pike, Richard E Grant, Carey Mulligan) to play with. Most importantly a lot of people will be rooting for the film since it's the sophomore directorial outing from writer/director Emerald Fennell of Promising Young Woman fame.
TAKE A LOOK AT THE NEW CHART. Who are you inclined to predict sight unseen and which contenders do you think will be non-starters despite pre-release buzz?