Lynn Lee and Ben Miller discuss the Best Actor race.
Ralph Fiennes in CONCLAVE. Will it *finally* be his time?
LYNN: First, a double disclaimer: 1. I haven’t yet seen some of the likely Oscar contenders this year, including in this category. 2. I’m also generally pretty meh on this year’s contenders (and movies) as a whole, especially compared with last year’s embarrassment of riches. This also extends to the best actor category, which was overflowing with worthy candidates last year, whereas this year I’m not sure I could even pick a top five I have strong feelings about, at least based on what I've seen so far.
All that said, my one bright hope for this season is that Ralph Fiennes finally gets his Oscar...
While Conclave probably wouldn’t make my list of his top performances, he’s still great in it, and certainly long overdue for another nomination and a win. I think he’s got the nomination in the bag, though I fear in his case that will be the reward. I suspect this will be Colman Domingo’s year, though one should never count out the combined appeal of Timothée Chalamet + biopic power.
What say you, Ben?
BEN: This is a funny category to talk about because it’s the one that is the most set-in-stone, as far as nominations go. There has been little to no shakeup since people first laid eyes on The Brutalist and cemented Adrien Brody in the conversation. Fiennes, Chalamet, Domingo, and Daniel Craig have also been ever-present in the precursors, so no one expects a surprise. I mean, who even would be the surprise nominee and who would get kicked out? You could pick from a handful of other performances, from Paul Mescal in Gladiator II, Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain, or Sebastian Stan in either A Different Man or The Apprentice (though I don’t think we live in a world where that would ever happen). Frankly, the one alternate name that keeps entering ears is Hugh Grant in Heretic. He’s the type of persona that would be fun to shake things up, but who does he replace? Do you see any cracks in the Fiennes/Brody/Chalamet/Domingo/Craig quintet?
Daniel Craig and Drew Starkey in QUEER (photo: Yannis Drakoulidis)
LYNN: If there’s a vulnerable spot in that lineup, I think it’s Daniel Craig. Queer is very...queer. Which shouldn’t be an issue in this day and age, but, alas, still very much is, though admittedly less so in Hollywood. Then again, it’s hard, as you note, to identify a credible alternative. Grant would be fun, but can he overcome Oscar’s anti-horror bias? Could Eisenberg slip in, or is he more likely to get recognized for screenplay? (One wonders if Kieran Culkin could have been a contender if he’d been submitted for lead rather than supporting.) Stan, I think, will suffer from split votes between his two films.
Re: Brody, as he’s been dominating the critics’ awards, I’m wondering if this will be like Cillian Murphy and Oppenheimer all over again. Last year around this time, I pegged Bradley Cooper (Maestro) as the likely winner, with Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) as the dark horse; I thought Murphy’s performance, while very good, was too introverted to win the big one. I was obviouslywrong! Of course, The Brutalist is no Oppenheimer: it’s not a megahit by an A-list director; it's only just been released to theaters, so general audiences and perhaps a good chunk of the Oscars voting body haven’t even seen it yet. On the other hand, Brody and the movie really swing for the fences, so maybe he will prove just as undeniable as Murphy.
And speaking of Murphy, very early in this season there was talk of him picking a repeat nod for Small Things Like These. However, it seems to have dissipated, and the film was barely in theaters – I wanted to see it, but I blinked and it was gone.
Any personal favorites among our probable nominees? Or any performances you really liked that should be in the conversation but aren't?
BEN: Queer as a film is an odd duck. I imagine it will be extremely polarizing but still singled out for Craig. Think of this as the male version of Ana de Armas in Blonde. Just because people hate the film doesn’t mean they can't separate the actor from it.
As far as the contenders, I see this as a pretty wide-open race for the win at the current time. Brody is in an interesting spot, because it's the exact opposite of his first time. In the 2002 Best Actor race, he was the only one of the five nominees who didn’t already have a statue. If the expected five is indeed the lineup, he would be the only one with a previous win, with three actors many people already consider overdue for attention as competition. I always look to the narratives, and that seems to be the one that would win out. Between Fiennes, Chalamet, and Domingo, which one gets the “has no Oscar” monkey off their back? We forget that the Academy does skew older, so it would make sense for Fiennes to finally win one after all these years of quality work and 27 year gap between nominations. He would be my prediction as of today.
As far as those potential nominees, I have been banging the Sing Sing drum since I first saw it, with Colman Domingo being the incredible tender force that he always is. Of these potential nominees, he is by far and away my favorite. Outside of these five, I don’t think I’ve seen a better male performance this year than that of Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. It’s such an oddly dark and funny film and he understands it completely. He has continually impressed me in every new performance. It’s my favorite of the year. That being said, Glen Powell in Hit Man is a close second.
Are there any performances you wish would have been included in the conversation?
Glen Powell in HIT MAN
LYNN: Well, you beat me to Glen Powell! While I didn’t love Hit Man as much as others, I did thoroughly enjoy watching him in it. It was such a deft and fun turn in which he somehow convinces us all to take him seriously...by not taking himself too seriously. At the same time, he’s completely convincing as both a nerdy schmoe and as the sexier persona that starts taking over. As for all the personalities in between, that’s just comic gravy – even as it underscores that people by and large see what they want to see.
The one other performance I’d mention, even though the film flew almost completely under the radar, was Keith Kupferer in Ghostlight. Kupferer is excellent as the seemingly stock inexpressive working guy who’s suppressing a world of anger, hurt, and grief, and who haltingly, begrudgingly learns to sublimate his pain into art. The climax – when he’s finally able to articulate everything he’s been bottling up – is incredibly moving, and it works only because Kupferer’s really made you believe in his emotional journey.
But coming back to where I started, I gotta give props to my boy Ralph for his work in Conclave. He’s one of those actors who can play both to the close-up and to the cheap seats. But I prefer him in subtle, understated mode, which is the register he’s working in here, and it would be just lovely if that’s what wins him an Oscar.
BEN: I think the consensus will be a Fiennes vs. Chalamet battle. If Chalamet were to win, he would be the youngest Best Actor winner ever, beating Brody by about seven months. I don’t know how people will respond to A Complete Unknown, but I wasn’t a fan AT ALL. That being said, 9 of the last 14, and 13 of the last 20 Best Actor winners have been based on real people. Chalamet is the only one of this group that has that advantage. I still think Fiennes has the upper hand because of his legacy and age with the current voting body. It would be a win I could get behind.
My predictions for the nominees:
Adrien Brody
Timothee Chalamet
Daniel Craig
Colman Domingo
Ralph Fiennes
The longest of longshots would be Hugh Grant, but I don’t see it happening.
How do you see it shaking out?
LYNN: I must say that of the likely contenders, Chalamet’s performance is the one I’m least looking forward to seeing. And I like Timmy! His time will come. But I really hope not for cosplaying Bob Dylan.
So in the end, my predictions are the same as yours. Sorry to be boring! I’m just not tracking any long shots worth going out on a limb for, speaking purely in terms of probability. Would be happy to be proven wrong, except as far as Fiennes is concerned.
OTHER VOLLEYS