Oscar Volley: Is there space for supporting actors in the Best Supporting Actor race?
Sunday, November 16, 2025 at 4:30PM
Cláudio Alves in Adam Sandler, Andrew Scott, Benicio del Toro, Delroy Lindo, Jacob Elordi, Josh O'Connor, Oscar Punditry, Oscar Volleys, Oscars (25), Paul Mescal, Sean Penn, Stellan Skarsgård

The Oscar Volleys are back! Tonight, it's time for Eric Blume and Cláudio Alves to discuss Best Supporting Actor...

Stellan Skarsgård in SENTIMENTAL VALUE | © Neon

ERIC: Hi, Cláudio. I'm very excited to tackle this year's Best Supporting Actor race with you! This is often the most boring acting category, but am I naive to think this year might be different? There are a lot of really fantastic performances that are not only nomination-worthy but win-worthy in my opinion. Are we to be disappointed that once the precursors start naming nominees, things will narrow too small too quickly? 

For the moment, it's an open book. I would love to discuss with you the two performances that do seem like locks even at this early stage: Sean Penn for One Battle After Another and Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value

I think both actors do sensational work (in startlingly different modes of acting) in their respective pictures, but am wondering what you think of those two "frontrunners" in terms of both the race and their performances?

CLÁUDIO: Though I am a bit of a skeptic regarding Sentimental Value's overall qualities, I agree that Skarsgård is remarkable. Even when it feels like Trier is leaning a bit too hard into a forgiving mood for his portrait of Gustav Borg, the actor resists, articulating all the ways in which the director uses people. He's a born emotional terrorist whose manipulations are so innate as to be automatic, impossible to recognize as such by the man perpetrating them. Until, from time to time, a spike of self-awareness disrupts the scene, often culminating in some perversely funny black comedy. The scene at the home of his old cinematographer? Superb and sharp and surprisingly merciless.

Sean Penn in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | © Warner Bros.

Penn is also impressive as the grotesque Lockjaw, delivering my favorite work of his since Milk, seventeen long years ago. If I were to talk about individual notes that made me want to stand up and cheer, it's got to be his walk. Such a funny tidbit, one more mannered tic among many that's both awkward and oddly suggestive. This might be a tad too outrageous for this convo, but I kept wondering if he was locked and plugged. Hey, that's the kind of speculation that happens when you open your film so close to Locktober.

ERIC: Cláudio, we are in 100% lockstep on the performances of both Skarsgård and Penn. I could have written what you just wrote (although I think Sentimental Value is a masterpiece, so let's fight about that in a separate post?). It's rare to see a character as complex as the one Skarsgård gives us, and the natural affection we have for him as an actor is part of what can cloud our ability to see what a vampire he is. But I think Trier is completely clear-headed about that father, and he made a genius stroke of casting by putting Skarsgård in the role. There's an omnipresent push-and-pull in all of his scenes because it's so easy to tilt his way, even at appalling moments. And his tiny, mini-scenes with Reinsve are divine.

Also, we should always be spending more time talking about dudes being locked and plugged, and if not, I'd prefer to write for another site. That's a funny call, and now I'm obsessed with that idea. I mentioned in my review of the movie here that Penn is playing both a specific person... but also a mythic version of that type... but also sort of the monolithic version of that person. His acting is deliriously inspired, and yes, his best since his equally inspired work in Milk.

CLÁUDIO: My only issue with these frontrunners is that I think they're co-leads of their movies. Rather evidently, in Skarsgård's case, a tad more debatable with Penn. Although I don't know how one can say Infiniti is a lead but not him. What's worse is that the other guy who's nearing frontrunner status is another lead - Paul Mescal in Hamnet. Whatever, I don't want to repeat myself after the volley on Best Supporting Actress. Except to say that the largeness of their roles may actually help these three men secure Oscar nominations because, apart from Nathaniel and me, few seem to care about these frauds.

Paul Mescal in HAMNET | © Focus Features 

ERIC: Mescal does such beautiful work in Hamnet. Here's where I net out on category fraud:  yes, it is annoying as fuck that this happens, but once actors lock into these categories, I don't fight it. The only time I keep resentment through the season is the truly, truly egregious cases of it (Rooney Mara in Carol, who has more time than Blanchett, etc.)...or that just plain ridiculous time that Lakeith Stanfield and Daniel Kaluuya...two leads...both made the supporting category). I see your argument for all three actors theoretically, but I also think an alternate argument is that OBAA is Leo's story, Sentimental Value is Reinsve's story, and Hamnet is Jessie Buckley's story. The central journey in each film is those characters' journeys, and screen time-wise, all of those actors have greater prominence. But yes, we could talk about this forever.

Onto some other possible nominees. The Oscar blogger folks commonly have three other folks slated under those three possibilities:  Adam Sandler, Jacob Elordi, and Benicio del Toro. I have yet to see Jay Kelly, but I have never been on this weird bandwagon claiming Sandler is a talented actor, so I am withholding any thoughts. I think Elordi's performance is kind of extraordinary in its physicality, pure strangeness and poetry, so I would be thrilled to see him in this race. And while del Toro's performance is super fun and smart, I can't muster the enthusiasm that Film Twitter seems to have for it. What are your thoughts on those three and some other gents after them? 

CLÁUDIO: I'm not as into Mescal's Shakespeare as you seem to be. Mostly, I think that he's betrayed by an adaptation that expands his role while cutting down all others, including scenes like the "to be or not to be" recitation, which the actor doesn't find a way to resolve or elevate above cliché. I really like Hamnet, but there are a few bits in the third act that left me colder than I was anticipating regarding Mescal. Still, there's a lot of good work to appreciate. For example, the Irish thespian aces one of the trickiest parts of this grieving father's arc, when his joy over finding his daughter alive comes crashing down into unbelieving stupefaction as he spots his son's dead body. More than illustrating sadness, he almost seems to articulate a spike of derealization, as if the world has stopped making sense.

Jacob Elordi in FRANKENSTEIN | © Netflix

Elordi is in a similar position, being somewhat betrayed by adaptation choices that limit what he can do. However, what he does accomplish within those limitations is as remarkable as you say. I confess I didn't have high expectations for his take on the Creature and was happy to be proven wrong. 

Sandler-wise, I can't say much as I haven't seen Jay Kelly yet, but I am of two minds. On the one hand, that movie's chances seem to have taken a nosedive, relegating it to a minor priority in Netflix's campaign game. That would leave Sandler as the easiest place to reward the whole project without wasting too much of one's ballot on Jay Kelly. On the other hand, part of me wonders if the man is as beloved in the industry as he is on social media and among critics. I mostly say this because of Uncut Gems, whose buzz seemed to completely die down when it came to guild honors and the like. 

ERIC: Reading your words on Jay Kelly, I'm now thinking that the movie gets a big resurgence out of that nosedive over the holiday season. The industry loves Clooney and Sandler, so everyone is going to watch it. It's not going to be one of the films that anybody misses. So if it delivers for enough people, they're probably in? And the industry does love a movie about itself. 

CLÁUDIO: And now, it's time to pull an Uno reverse card, since I very much want to believe that the Benicio del Toro acclaim will translate beyond social media. His supporting turn is only second to Taylor in my appreciation of One Battle After Another's cast, the kind of effortless-looking virtuosity that's hardly ever given the proper credit. Del Toro doesn't foreground the strain or the challenge of his performance like Penn or DiCaprio do - this is not a dig against them - yet he is tasked with bearing the brunt of many of the film's wildest tonal gambles. From the moment he appears on screen, exuding an easy, encouraging warmth for his student, to the self-satisfied impishness of his last scene, the man is sheer perfection, transforming the picture around the leads without pulling the narrative flow or the audience's focus out of place.

Delroy Lindo in SINNERS | © Warner Bros.

I feel similarly about Delroy Lindo in Sinners, a film I'm much less enthused about than most. Indeed, I have this hunch that Best Supporting Actor is the only acting category where AMPAS will honor Coogler's vampire flick. My only question is who'll get the biggest push from Warner Bros? Lindo, who's phenomenal and can capitalize on an overdue narrative after decades of brilliant work and a notorious snub? Or Miles Caton in a co-lead part with a potential "star is born" campaign storyline? 

ERIC: Lots of interesting opinions in this latest reveal! I'm not as high on del Toro as you (and the internet) are, but I can't disagree with any of your words either. I think I had a resistance to how Anderson presented that character to me...it felt a little too "look how cool I got Benicio del Toro to be"...kind of how Tarantino presents some of his actors. This sort of presumed grooviness that comes off just a little smugly to me, because I prefer the sort of operatic stuff he can get out of, say, Julianne Moore or Day-Lewis (or Penn, in the same movie, or to a lesser extent, Teyana Taylor). I suppose I like it better when PTA pushes people to new heights rather than letting them relax. Personal preference.

I'm on record here as being in a social-media-minority who does not love Sinners...an okay film with some interesting ideas...but I'll wait to discuss its weaknesses when you and I dive into the Best Director race together. I've loved Delroy Lindo forever, but I thought his performance here was nothing special based on what he can do. I would be shocked if Miles Caton gets any real traction in this race, but I've certainly been very wrong before! 

Andrew Scott in BLUE MOON | © Sony Pictures Classics

I think Ethan Hawke is getting into (and possibly winning) the Best Actor race, so I think there's a small shot that Andrew Scott makes the list here. Scott's scenes with Hawke couldn't possibly be better, and it's still unconscionable to me that he didn't get his nomination for All of Us Strangers. I could see Scott being that "surprise nominee" along the lines of Brian Tyree Henry, Michael Shannon, Jeremy Strong, Richard E. Grant...beloved actor who they finally bring into the club? 

Speaking of Jeremy Strong, any shot for him at this point? And what say you to Josh O'Connor ramping up once everyone watches Wake Up Dead Man on Netflix over the holidays? 

CLÁUDIO: While I wouldn't have nominated Scott for All of Us Strangers, he's been worthy of an Oscar nod multiple times before - Pride and Catherine Called Birdy come to mind - and is certainly getting into that overdue status. Blue Moon would be a beautiful opportunity to honor him, but I fear the performance may be too low-key. Perhaps I'm underestimating Academy voters' ability to recognize great acting that manifests itself without pyrotechnics. I hope so - Henry is a good precedent - though my predictions will probably continue to be based on pessimism for the time being.

Strong looks pretty beloved by his peers, but I doubt Springsteen can survive its box office numbers and ultimate rejection by what was supposed to be its target audience. As for O'Connor, I believe Netflix hasn't yet revealed how they'll be campaigning him, so there's some hope they'll do the right thing and run him as a lead actor. If they go supporting, he has a significant chance to crash the party. At TIFF, I saw firsthand how much everyone loves him, including those representing other projects, which makes me believe his embrace by AMPAS is inevitable. Right now, it's just a matter of time. When will it happen? This season? Maybe so.

Josh O'Connor in WAKE UP DEAD MAN: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY | © Netflix

However, I'm now dreading a Best Supporting Actor category without a single supporting actor. Oh well, I'd better shut up about category fraud. Anyway, my final predictions, in order of confidence, are: Penn, Skarsgård, Mescal, del Toro, Lindo. O'Connor is dependent on that final campaign decision, and both Sandler and Elordi feel very close to the lineup, too. 

I'd love to know your predictions, but also, could you share some long shots you're rooting for at this early stage of the race? I find myself hoping Jacobi Jupe can get some traction for the titular role in Hamnet, even though his on-screen father is going to gobble up most of the attention. Completely outside the realm of possibility, I'd also like to urge readers to give a chance to Fábio Assunção's heady mix of aggression, desire and despair in Motel Destino, Tawfeek Barhom's spine-chilling ambiguities in Ghost Trail, Michael Cera's hilarious turn in The Phoenician Scheme, Aram Sabbah channeling Hoffman's Rizzo in To a Land Unknown, Ricardo Teodoro's slippery sensuality in Baby, and Jacques Develay as Misericordia's shockingly big-dicked abbot.

ERIC: You always have such fun, surprising candidates. I'm woefully behind on movies this year, but in addition to the folks we've talked about, I really enjoyed Diego Luna's soulful turn in Kiss of the Spider Woman; Robert Pattison's flinty, fiery work against Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love; Josh O'Connor's subtle suppleness in The History of Sound; Daniel Auteuil's fun duet with Jodie Foster in A Private Life; and Sean Bean's cranky brother in Anemone. I also admired the performances of all the men in It Was Just an Accident, who played different piano keys to bring that symphony together.  

I agree with you that if they move Josh O'Connor's Netflix movie performance into the supporting category, he stands a fair chance of crashing the party here. That movie is also the kind of film that everyone catches over the holiday, because it can be watched by any given group of people.  

For now, my projection would be (in order of confidence): Penn, Skarsgård, Mescal, Sandler, Elordi. At end of day, I wouldn't be surprised if Penn went all the way to Oscar number three. If OBAA goes the distance to Best Picture, it's possible they'll sway to award an actor in it as well. We still have a way to go, and the December flurry of awards bodies will start to narrow this down, sadly, but this is a fun time to discuss the broader field.

Any thoughts for us to wrap up?

CLÁUDIO: Only that I can't wait to pop in my Pillion screener to check out the other Skarsgård vying for Supporting Actor prizes this season. And also, let's all light a candle so that Nathaniel's doomdiction doesn't come true and Waltz doesn't become a factor in the race for Frankenstein. Can you imagine a world where he, rather than Elordi, got recognition for that movie? I know Guillermo del Toro loves horror, but some frights go too far. I shudder just thinking of that possibility.

Adam Sandler in JAY KELLY | © Netflix

Other Oscar Volleys:

 

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