Last week was a good one for Gold Derby. Not only did Ryan Murphy elevate their brand status by ____ them to death with an Oscar on American Horror Story but their story that David O. Russell's Joy would go Drama at the Golden Globes got a lot of "whoa, really?" press. I'm sure it's true-ish now but people are so exciteable about any "news" that I'm always finding myself in the position of splash of cold water realism. Truth: there are few certainties this early as it's only October and there's lots of wiggle room still for campaigns and precursor ponderings and such. Films are still entering (The Big Short) and exiting (I Saw The Light) the 2015 calendar and some switcheroos of fate/precursors/campaigning happen at all junctures on the way to Oscar: remember when My Big Fat Greek Wedding and Gangs of New York were suddenly Original Screenplays (oy); remember when Oscar decided abruptly that all the precursors were wrong and Kate Winslet was a leading lady in The Reader (they were right of course but it was super gross how all the precursors and media were all "Yay, category fraud!!!"); or when Whiplash was determined to be Adapted too late for its FYCs to urge voters to vote that way.
So let's assume that Joy is out of the Golden Globe Musical or Comedy and let's assume The Martian is in (though obviously things could change on either front). And after shedding whatever tears must be shed that the Coen Bros Hail, Caesar! is not opening in time to own this category, we move on.
Is the field thin or just mysterious to our eyes in October? Let's take a look after the jump...
IF I WERE ON THIS CAMPAIGN I'D PUSH SO HARD FOR "COMEDY"
• Youth We all know that the categorizations are fluid at the Globes and while people have been earmarking this as a drama, it might do Fox Searchlight some good to redirect attention and pitch it another way. Youth does have a certain level of eyebrow raised amusement at its own surrealism and absurdity -- and people always think old horny men are hilarious. You could consider it a satire. At the very least it's a dramedy. Plus it ends with a musical number. My guess is it would be a slam dunk Best Picture nominee if it's in the Musical/Comedy category and it will have a much tougher time (though it could theoretically make it) over in drama.
FILMS THAT COULD BE IN THE RUNNING
• The Martian - It's light tone and "science the shit out of this" joking could even prevail in this category without a big ticket musical in the way!
• Grandma - Obviously a comedy and a good one, too. But would the Globes embrace something this "indie small" that isn't British? When they pick a tiny film no one is expecting in Best Picture it's usually British.
• I'll See You In My Dreams -It would be an atypically low key choice for them but stranger things have happened in their strangest category
• Trainwreck - It's always tough to know if the Globes will feel like laughing or if they'll just want dramedies. If they feel like laughing, they'll totally embrace one of the year's most talked about comedies especially since Amy Schumer has had a huge year.
• Cinderella - it feels like a musical sometimes, right? If they chose this film it would likely shock everyone for two seconds until people were all like 'oh, yeah. duh. Sure.'
• Spy - Though it was a box office hit, it was so funny we always expect it to get bigger than it did. Might the Globes remind people of how funny it was with a Best Picture nomination in this category
• Ricki and The Flash - while it's box office was minimal and critics were lukewarm, the Globes love Streep even more than the Oscars do and it has the added benefit of being chalk full of musical numbers, too.
• Pitch Perfect 2 - No, no one thinks it's "good filmmaking" but it is a musical
• The Last Five Years - an actual musical! Not that anyone remembers that it actually came out this year. Still it might be a pleasant surprise if, say, Anna Kendrick were given a shout out as Best Actress in a Musical.
• Diary of a Teenage Girl - This is 100/1 odds at Gold Derby's chart. Ha ha. But it's more likely than that. It's prestige enough in its countenance. It's sometimes funny. It's well loved by those who've actually seen it and the Globes have a very small voting body so you only have to convince a few handfuls of people to really love you more than they love the others.
Other 2015 Comedies: Learning to Drive, Dope, Danny Collins, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, Mistress America, What We Do in the Shadows, Tangerine, Magic Mike XXL, Hot Pursuit, Sleeping With Other People
NOT OUT IN THEATERS YET
• The Big Short - Some say this financial crisis comedy with an all star male cast went over really well at a recent LA screening but that's one screening. We'll know more when it has its official premiere at AFI in November.
• Burnt - a lot of pundits seem hot on the Best Pic Comedy chances of this Bradley Cooper as chef movie. Which is a little weird as buzz was not at all strong on early screenings when it was called Adam Jones (his character's name)
• Lady in the Van - what we were saying earlier about the Globes loving small British comedies...
• Trumbo -Is Hollywood's most shameful hour funny now? Hmmm.
• Sisters - The Globes do kinda owe Tina Fey & Amy Poehler, the titular characters, for restoring their shine these past years via great hosting.
• Our Brand is Crisis - Response seems to be mixed but perhaps a serious theme coupled with its natural humor and funnywoman Sandra Bullock as lead will be more than enough?
CURRENT PREDICTIONS
Actress Comedy/Musical
- McCarthy (Spy)
- Schumer (Trainwreck)
- Smith (The Lady in the Van)
- Streep (Ricki & The Flash)
- Tomlin (Grandma)
alternates: Blythe Danner, Sandra Bullock, or Bel Powley
Actor Comedy/Musical
- Carell (The Big Short)
- Cooper (Burnt)
- Damon (The Martian)
- Hader (Trainwreck)
- Murray (Rock the Kasbah)
alternates: Bryan Cranston, Channing Tatum, or Joaquin Phoenix
Picture, Comedy/Musical
- The Big Short
- Grandma
- The Martian
- Spy
- Trainwreck
alternates: Cinderella, The Lady in the Van, or Our Brand is Crisis
AND JUST FOR FUN SINCE WE WISH THE GLOBES WOULD ALSO SPLIT SUPPORTING CATEGORIES IN TWO AS WELL AS LEADS WE'D PROBABLY VOTE THIS WAY...
Musical or Comedy (Our Imaginary Lineup)
Grandma, I'll See You In My Dreams, The Martian, Spy, Tangerine
Actress, Comedy (Our Imaginary Lineup):
Danner (I'll See You...), Kendrick (Last Five Years), McCarthy (Spy), Powley (Diary of a Teenage Girl), Streep (Ricki & The Flash), Tomlin (Grandma), and the ladies from Tangerine (Tangerine). Shit, that's 8 women.
Actor, Comedy (Our Imaginary Lineup):
Caine (Youth), Damon (The Martian), Hader (Trainwreck), Keitel (Youth), Tatum (Magic Mike XXL)
Supporting Actress Comedy (Our Imaginary Lineup):
Byrne (Spy), Fonda (Youth), Harden (Grandma), Weisz (Youth), and Wiig (Diary...)
Supporting Actor Comedy (Our Imaginary Lineup):
Ejiofor (Martian), Law (Spy), Ransone (Tangerine), Starr (I'll See You...), and Statham (Spy)
HOW ABOUT YOU?
What are you expecting from the Globes this year? Or perhaps you're hoping for WTF nominations like In Bruges (highly deserving but very unexpected) or The Tourist (but everyone hates it! and it's not a comedy).