It's not my imagination. I swear it's not. This year's Oscar competition is unusually tough to predict in quite a few categories . That's a refreshing change of pace. You might think this one is easy "Best Visual Effects" since it usually is (well, apart from the Golden Compass year. That was a shocker).
You might think that since Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011) didn't win the prize so they kinda owe this series. Indeed, everyone seems to be in awe of the advances in motion capture technology that come with the series, particularly the way it's served as a new medium for the art of acting. But not so fast. The Apes series which dates back to 1968 and is composed of 8 films, has typically been an underperfomer with Oscars. To date the series has won only 4 nominations and 1 honorary Oscar (for makeup before the category existed) in its entire history. This despite starting as a mammoth zeitgeist hit and winning very strong reviews twice over during its rebirth this decade.
This one requires some extra thoughts and video so let's investigate after the jump...
The Nominees:
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dan Deleeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill, Daniel Sudick
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Erik Winquist
Guardians of the Galaxy
Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithandi, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould
Interstellar
Paul J Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter, Scott R Fisher
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crossible, Cameron Waldbauer
The new Apes movie, which was a major success with audiences and critics, couldn't even manage a nomination for its astounding production design. What the hell was that about? So can it win the gold for visual effects despite their strange standoffishness about the series?
The thinking ape's competition is fiercely well-armed with super strength, helicarriers, bizarre mutations, cyborg arms, and tree trunk bodyguards. My guess is it's going to be a tight tight race (wouldn't a tie be fun?) between the apes and the Guardians of the Galaxy but AMPAS's natural indifference to both Apes and Superheroes -- only two superhero films have ever won gold in this category: Superman (1978) and Spider-Man 2 (2004) -- allowing the nominee with the most prestige and the most nominations in other categories to triumph.
Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes