Last year, the Screen Actors Guild Awards had a ready-made anti-Oscar narrative with a slate of winners that features colorful casts (Orange is the New Black) and Idris Elba as the supporting actor winner during the #OscarsSoWhite backlash. This year, there's no clear media narrative and SAG even has to make do without a Best Picture frontrunner since La La Land is understandably not up for their top prize (Outstanding Performance by a Cast... also referred to as "Best Ensemble" by many). So what will they choose this year? Who knows!
Viola has won four SAG awards, two for How to Get Away With Murder, two for The Help
We'll find out tomorrow night but what we're most looking forward to the lifetime achievement tribute to Lily Tomlin which will happily be presented by her 9 to 5 co-stars Jane Fonda and Dolly Parton. But back to predictions. Will Viola Davis win her fifth SAG in five years? Let's make the tough calls after the jump...
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
CASEY AFFLECK / Lee Chandler – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA”
ANDREW GARFIELD / Desmond Doss – “HACKSAW RIDGE”
RYAN GOSLING / Sebastian –“LA LA LAND”
VIGGO MORTENSEN / Ben – “CAPTAIN FANTASTIC”
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Troy Maxson – “FENCES”
Will win: Casey Affleck
Could win: Despite two Oscars, Denzel has never won the SAG Award. Theoretically that could help him but I don't think enough SAG voters will consider such trivia when voting. If and it's a big if, Ryan Gosling shockingly nabs this, expect a clean sweep at the Oscars. That means the film is unstoppable.
Should win: Denzel, Casey, Ryan, and Viggo are all so marvelous in their movies -- they all make my personal ballot.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
AMY ADAMS / Louise Banks – “ARRIVAL”
EMILY BLUNT / Rachel – “THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN”
NATALIE PORTMAN / Jackie Kennedy – “JACKIE”
EMMA STONE / Mia – “LA LA LAND”
MERYL STREEP / Florence Foster Jenkins – “FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS”
Will win: They can't award La La Land with their ensemble prize so the natural place to honor it is here with Emma's completely dazzling star turn.
Could win: Natalie Portman. Awards voters do love celebrities pretending to be other celebrities in true stories. There's also the outside possibility that Amy Adams wins which would surely be viewed as a reaction to her Oscar snub.
Should win: Natalie or Emma. It's a toss-up.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
MAHERSHALA ALI / Juan – “MOONLIGHT”
JEFF BRIDGES / Marcus Hamilton – “HELL OR HIGH WATER”
HUGH GRANT / St Clair Bayfield – “FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS”
LUCAS HEDGES / Patrick Chandler – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA”
DEV PATEL / Saroo Brierley – “LION”
Will win: Mahershala Ali, despite his Golden Globe loss, still has the heat. And what's more he has worked a lot in recent years in both TV and film so he'll have fans from both mediums voting for him.
Could win: Dev Patel, who seems very well liked in a movie with devout fans
Should win: Mahershala Ali
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
VIOLA DAVIS / Rose Maxson – “FENCES”
NAOMIE HARRIS / Paula – “MOONLIGHT”
NICOLE KIDMAN / Sue Brierley – “LION”
OCTAVIA SPENCER / Dorothy Vaughan – “HIDDEN FIGURES”
MICHELLE WILLIAMS / Randi Chandler – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA”
Will win: Viola Davis
Could win: On the very unlikely chance that they feel they've awarded Viola enough (she's won 4 SAG statues in the past five years) Michelle Williams would seem the obvious runner-up recipient.
Should win: Since I consider Viola a lead, my vote would go to Naomie Harris or Nicole Kidman who both make my own ballot.
The Moonlight cast at the LA premiere
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
FENCES
HIDDEN FIGURES
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
MOONLIGHT
Will win: Given that SAG often views this prize as their "Best Picture" equivalent, it would seem likely that they'll choose Moonlight, which amazes most people who see it. Plus the actors are all marvelous but it's hard to separate them since the cast is tripled up given the time jumps in the narrative.
Could win: On the other hand, SAG is one of the most populist awards bodies and Hidden Figures is very very popular (and likeable). It might surprise.
Should win: Moonlight
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR”
“DOCTOR STRANGE”
“HACKSAW RIDGE”
“JASON BOURNE”
“NOCTURNAL ANIMALS”
Do they announce this one ahead of time? I've forgotten.
TELEVISION PRIZES
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
RIZ AHMED / Nasir “Naz” Khan – “THE NIGHT OF” (HBO)
STERLING K. BROWN / Christopher Darden – “THE PEOPLE V. O.J. SIMPSON: AMERICAN CRIME STORY” (FX Networks)
BRYAN CRANSTON / President Lyndon B. Johnson – “ALL THE WAY” (HBO)
JOHN TURTURRO / John Stone – “THE NIGHT OF” (HBO)
COURTNEY B. VANCE / Johnnie Cochran – “THE PEOPLE V. O.J. SIMPSON: AMERICAN CRIME STORY” (FX Networks)
Will win: I'm going to go out on a limb -- is it a limb? -- and say Riz Ahmed
Could win: Either of the People vs OJ Simpson men
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
BRYCE DALLAS HOWARD / Lacie – “BLACK MIRROR” (Netflix)
FELICITY HUFFMAN / Leslie Graham – “AMERICAN CRIME” (ABC)
AUDRA McDONALD / Billie Holiday – “LADY DAY AT EMERSON’S BAR & GRILL” (HBO)
SARAH PAULSON / Marcia Clark – “THE PEOPLE V. O.J. SIMPSON: AMERICAN CRIME STORY” (FX Networks)
KERRY WASHINGTON / Anita Hill – “CONFIRMATION” (HBO)
Will win: Sarah Paulson who is having her Temple Grandin year in which she picks up statues for what feels like 18 months or so...
Could win: It's just Sarah. She's a steamroller
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STERLING K. BROWN / Randall Pearson – “THIS IS US” (NBC)
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
JOHN LITHGOW / Winston Churchill – “THE CROWN” (Netflix)
RAMI MALEK / Elliot Alderson – “MR. ROBOT” (USA Network)
KEVIN SPACEY / Frank Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)
Will win: John Lithgow because he's quite an awards magnet. Tonys, Emmys, Globes, SAG....
Could win: Kevin Spacey won last year beating surging Rami Malek and SAG does like to repeat itself.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
MILLIE BOBBY BROWN / Eleven – “STRANGER THINGS” (Netflix)
CLAIRE FOY / Queen Elizabeth II – “THE CROWN” (Netflix)
THANDIE NEWTON / Maeve Millay – “WESTWORLD” (HBO)
WINONA RYDER / Joyce Byers – “STRANGER THINGS” (Netflix)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)
Will win: Claire Foy with heat from her Golden Globe prize
Could win: Robin Wright has yet to take this prize and could be a sentimental favorite for her unsentimental role. On the other hand, if they're feeling anything like sentiment, welcoming Winona Ryder back would be "very".
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ANTHONY ANDERSON / Andre Johnson – “BLACK-ISH” (ABC)
TITUSS BURGESS / Titus Andromedon – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank Gallagher – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JEFFREY TAMBOR / Maura Pfefferman – “TRANSPARENT” (Amazon)
Will win: Anthony Anderson since Black-ish is now an awards favorite
Could win: Burrell, Macy, and Tambor have all recently won this prize and SAG likes to repeat
Should win: I mean... doesn't anyone want to hand Burgess a statue for his genius work on Kimmy Schmidt?
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
JANE FONDA / Grace Hanson – “GRACE AND FRANKIE” (Netflix)
ELLIE KEMPER / Kimmy Schmidt – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
LILY TOMLIN / Frankie Bergstein – “GRACE AND FRANKIE” (Netflix)
Will win: This is a really tough call, but I'll go with Julia Louis-Dreyfus who, despite her constant Emmy wins, doesn't usually win SAG
Could win: Uzo Aduba has won this prize for the past two consecutive years
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
THE CROWN (Netflix)
DOWNTON ABBEY (Masterpiece/PBS)
GAME OF THRONES (HBO)
STRANGER THINGS (Netflix)
WESTWORLD (HBO)
Will win: Common wisdom will say The Crown but let's predict a surprise and go with Stranger Things since SAG loves the cute kids.
Could win: Downton Abbey has won this prize three times and it's their last chance to reward the show. But it feels like it went off the air long ago, doesn't it?
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
THE BIG BANG THEORY (CBS)
BLACK-ISH (ABC)
MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK (Netflix)
VEEP (HBO)
Will win: Let's say that Veep gets its first prize in this category.
Could win: Orange is the New Black has won this for the past two years and Modern Family for quite a few years before that but both shows have lost heat, haven't they?
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
“GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
“MARVEL’S DAREDEVIL” (Netflix)
“MARVEL’S LUKE CAGE” (Netflix)
“THE WALKING DEAD” (AMC)
“WESTWORLD” (HBO)
Do they announce these ahead of time? Game of Thrones usually wins. But crossing my fingers for Westworld since Daredevil's stuntwork wasn't as amazing in season 2 as in its debut season.