The Art Director's Guild can give us a taste of what's to come for Oscar but that's the reductive way of looking at it. By having multiple categories they give us a much better sense of what these craftsmen thought of the work done in any given film year... or at least told us which screeners they caught up with. Instead of 5 annual nominees like the Oscars, they have 15. Or in this year's case 16 titles (there was a tie in "period film").
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS won a surprise Academy nomination for Production Design (without an ADG nomination). Might CAFE SOCIETY (which *has* an ADG nomination) make the Oscar list despite a current low profile?
Which will go on to Oscar? (I'll have to rethink our chart which has four films which didn't score with the ADG in the top ten though one of them, The Handmaiden, still feels possible as a nomination since foreign films don't generally show up at guild awards before their Oscar nods) Oscar eventual lineup is remarkably similar from year to year in terms of how it pulls from the ADG nominations. For example, here is this decade thus far:
2015: Oscar chose 3 from ADG's period pieces, 1 each from their contemporary and fantasy selections
2014: Oscar chose 2 from ADG's period pieces, 2 film from fantasy, none from contemporary. They filled the remaining spot with a film ADG had not selected (Mr Turner)
2013: Oscar chose 3 from ADG's period pieces, 1 each from their contemporary and fantasy selections
2012: Oscar chose 3 from ADG's period pieces, 2 from fantasy, none from contemporary.
2011: Oscar chose 2 from ADG's period pieces, 1 from fantasy, none from contemporary, and 2 films the ADG had not selected (Midnight in Paris & War Horse)
2010: Oscar chose 2 from ADG's period pieces, 3 from fantasy, none from contemporary.
The safest bet is that they'll do the same as usual this year with a 3,1,1 split for ADG's Period, Fantasy, and Contemporary fields. All the nominations are after the jump...
Period Film:
Cafe Society — Production Designer: Santo Loquasto
Fences — Production Designer: David Gropman
Hacksaw Ridge— Production Designer: Barry Robison
Hail, Caesar! — Production Designer: Jess Gonchor
Hidden Figures — Production Designer: Wynn Thomas
Jackie — Production Designer: Jean Rabasse
Since there are six nominees in this five-wide field, let the theorizing begin: which two films were tied for fifth place? Oscar only ever chooses a maximum of 3 films from the ADG's period selections but it's tough to say which of these is the "strongest" in terms of Oscar pull. Cafe Society and Hail Caesar are the most conspicuously "big" period production design efforts but neither film has much of a campaign so they'd have to make it to Oscar on pure feelings of merit from the branch members of the Academy. There seems to be general resistance to Jackie out there (despite how amazing it is), Hacksaw Ridge gets most of its power from its war scenes which are big muddy outdoors affairs and Fences might be a little too inconspicuous for voters who like "Most" Production Design. What do you make of these six choices?
Fantasy Film:
Arrival — Production Designer: Patrice Vermette
Doctor Strange — Production Designer: Charles Wood
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them — Production Designer: Stuart Craig
Passengers — Production Designer: Guy Hendrix Dyas
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story — Production Designers: Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont
Doctor Strange and Rogue One might seem to be real contenderes but Oscar doesn't tend to embrace art direction for Star Wars films (apart from the 1977 smash) or for Marvel Studios movies. Though Arrival and Passengers have gorgeous design work, the safest bet for a transfer to Oscar is possibly Fantastic Beasts. Stuart Craig has already received four nominations for art directing the Harry Potter films. We wish Oscar voters wouldn't let franchises hog these categories like that but that's typically how it works if they really love a film series.
At any rate, it'll be interesting to see if Passengers can overcome its terrible reviews to win nominations in Production Design and Visual Effects which are by far that film's most successful elements.
Contemporary Film:
Hell or High Water — Production Designer: Tom Duffield
La La Land — Production Designer: David Wasco
Lion — Production Designer: Chris Kennedy
Manchester by the Sea — Production Designer: Ruth De Jong
Nocturnal Animals — Production Designer: Shane Valentino
As noted in the trivia list above, Oscar does not much value contemporary production design so all of these films have a tough road to the hearts of Oscar voters. Statistically speaking only one of these can move up to the Oscar shortlist but even then that's dicey. La La Land's Best Picture heat and locale specific pleasures ("Sebs," the Observatory) and more fantastical elements ('Dream Ballet' like finale) could well help it make the transfer though.
If you're still with us please read Daniel Walber's take on the production design of Hell or High Water in his column The Furniture.
THE ADG'S TELEVISION NOMINATIONS
One-Hour Period or Fantasy Single-Camera Series:
Game of Thrones: ”Blood of My Blood,” “The Broken Man,” ”No One” — Production Designer: Deborah Riley
Stranger Things: ”The Vanishing of Will Byers,” “Holly, Jolly,” “The Upside Down” — Production Designer: Chris Trujillo
The Crown: ”Wolferton Splash,” “Hyde Park Corner,” “Smoke and Mirrors” — Production Designer: Martin Childs
The Man in the High Castle: “The Tigers Cave,” “Land O Smiles,” “Fallout” — Production Designer: Drew Boughton
Westworld: ”Pilot” — Production Designer: Nathan Crowley
One-Hour Contemporary Single-Camera Series:
Better Call Saul: ‘Inflatable,” “Fifi,” “Klick” — Production Designer: Tony Fanning
Bloodline: “Part 16,” “Part 21″ — Production Designer: Tim Galvin
House of Cards: “Chapter 41,” ”Chapter 47,” “Chapter 48″ — Production Designer: Steve Arnold
Mr. Robot: ”Eps2.0_unm4sk-pt1.tc,” “Eps2.4_m4ster-slave.aes,” “Eps2.9_pyth0n-pt1.p7z” — Production Designer: Anastasia White
Preacher: “See,” “South Will Rise Again,” “Finish The Song” — Production Designer: Dave Blass
Television Movie or Limited Series:
American Horror Story: Roanoke: “Chapter 4” — Production Designer: Andrew Murdock
Black Mirror: ”Nosedive,” “Playtest,” “San Junipero” — Production Designers: Joel Collins, James Foster, Nicholas Palmer
Sherlock: ”The Abominable Bride” — Production Designer: Arwel W. Jones
The Night Of: ”Pilot” — Production Designer: Patrizia von Brandenstein
The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story: “100% Not Guilty,” “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia,” ”Manna From Heaven” — Production Designer: Jeffrey Mossa
Half Hour Single-Camera Series:
Mozart in the Jungle: ”Now I Will Sing” — Production Designer: Tommaso Ortino
Silicon Valley: ”Two In The Box,” “Vachmanity Insanity,” “Daily Active Users” — Production Designer: Richard Toyon
Transparent: “If I Were A Bell” — Production Designer: Cat Smith
The Last Man on Earth: ”Pitch Black,” “The Power of Power,” ”Mamas Hideaway” — Production Designer: Bruce Robert Hill
Veep: Kissing Your Sister — Production Designer: Jim Gloster
Multi-Camera Series:
2 Broke Girls: ”And The 80s Movie,” “And The Godmama Drama,” “And The Two Openings: Part Two” — Production Designer: Glenda Rovello
Baby Daddy: ”Love & Carriage,” “Room-Mating,” “Stupid Cupid” — Production Designer: Greg Grande
The Big Bang Theory: “The Positive Negative Reaction,” “The Big Bear Precipitation,” “The Fermentation Bifurcation” — Production Designer: John Shaffner
The Great Indoors: ”Pilot” — Production Designer: Glenda Rovello
The Ranch: ”Leavins Been Comin (For A Long, Long Time)” — Production Designer: John Shaffner
Awards or Event Special:
Beyonce: Lemonade — Production Designer: Hannah Beachler
Grease Live! — Production Designer: David Korins
Hairspray Live! — Production Designer: Derek McLane
The 68th Primetime Emmy Awards — Production Designers: Tamlyn Wright, Baz Halpin
The Oscars — Production Designer: Derek McLane
Short Format: Web Series, Music Video or Commercial:
Adidas: Basketball Needs Creators — Production Designer: Ruth De Jong
Beyonce: Lemonade: “6 Inch” — Production Designer: JC Molina
Beyonce: Lemonade: ”Denial” — Production Designer: Jason Hougaard
Beyonce: Lemonade: “Hold Up” — Production Designer: Jason Hougaard
iPhone 7: Balloons — Production Designer: James Chinlund
Variety, Reality or Competition Series:
American Grit: ”Ruck Up” — Production Designer: Mercedes Younger
Portlandia: “Weirdo Beach” — Production Designer: Schuyler Telleen
Saturday Night Live: “Larry David/The 1975,” “Peter Dinklage/Gwen Stefani,” “Tom Hanks/Lady Gaga” — Production Designers: Keith Ian Raywood, Eugene Lee, Akira Yoshimura, N. Josheph DeTullio
The Ellen Degeneres Show: ”Ellens Halloween Show” — Production Designer: Karen Weber
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: ”Ep. 0417,” “Ep. 0461,” “Ep. 0493″ — Production Designers: Eugene Lee, Peter Baran
The Voice: ”The Blind Auditions, Part 3,” “The Battles Premiere, Part 2″ — Production Designers: Anton Goss, James Pearse Connelly