The Film Experience

by Nathaniel R

In a year of what appears to be abizarre cakewalk to an immediate second Oscar for leading man Mahershal Ali in Green Book, Best Supporting Actor is likely to be a bit dull this season. Nevertheless predict we must.

It's safe to say given the televised precursor wins and the strength of his film in the Best Picture race that Mahershala Ali is locked up for at least a nomination for his uneven leading performance despite this being a supporting category and despite his film being under constant attack. Adam Driver's film BlacKkKlansman has also been a consistent performer and Richard E Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me? appears to be the only real threat to Mahershala Ali's Oscar at this point given widespread enthusiasm about his performance (that is IF his campaign can pick up any steam in the final stretch)...

That takes care of 3 of 5 slots but from there it gets trickier.

Timothée Chalamet has all three key precursors (Globe, SAG, BAFTA) and Sam Rockwell's small role in Vice has two (Globe, BAFTA), Sam Elliott's father-figure brother in A Star is Born has onely one of them (SAG). Statistics will tell you that that that means it's Chalamet and Rockwell for nominations with Elliott on the outside. I'm going against the grain and predicting, instead, a double Sam: Sam Elliott & Sam Rockwell for the fourth and fifth slots. Why? We'll we've seen many times over that a film having Best Picture heat helps its actors get nominated and Chalamet, if nominated, would be his film's sole Oscar nomination. What's more online punditry tends to get a big ageist and routinely favor young actors while the Academy often has wells of affection for older actors that online punditry doesn't quite get (see the strange resistance to Glenn Close's frontrunner status encountered all year online everywhere but here at The Film Experience.)

Nevertheless we assume the vote differentials will be very slim margins for those three players and any combo could happen. In fact, though we're not predicting it, we could even see a scenario where all three make it and one of the supposed locks, probably Driver, is the surprise omission.

All of which leaves us wondering what ever happened to Michael B Jordan's campaign for Black Panther. He who was so widely celebrated for his charismatic supervillain all year but when awards season came, crickets, despite the film performing well. We assumed he'd become the defacto way to honor Black Panther in the way that Regina King is becoming the defacto way to honor If Beale Street Could Talk or the way Kim Basinger became the way to honor LA Confidential or Mary J Blige to honor Mudbound or what not. Plus, he's already overdue for Oscar recognition! It's frankly mystifying that actors, in general, continue to have such trouble seeing the merits of performances that fall outside of traditional dramas or dramedies (see also Toni Collette in Hereditary) but it is what it is. If Jordan isn't a surprise inclusion despite little precursor interest we will be even more sure of our past morbid, but apparently realistic, assessment that even Heath Ledger wouldn't have been won Oscar honors for The Dark Knight if not for his tragic death.

On the other hand maybe if leading men like Chalamet and Ali hadn't been hogging 40% of the conversation about the final five for the supporting category, perhaps a supporting role like Jordan's would have sailed through the precursors to a nomination with little trouble? Maybe Russell Hornsby in The Hate U Give or Daniel Kaluuya in Widows, or our beloved Alessandro Nivola in Disobedience, or critical darlings Hugh Grant in Paddington 2 and Steven Yeun in Burning might have magically gained more traction in a supporting-players- only fair fight? We'll never know!

Which five men do you think will be nominated?