by Nathaniel R
Is the Oscar race as locked up as we think, or will SAG hold some surprises? Care to conjecture about what will win? I'll confess, perhaps foolishly, that I think we could be in for some surprises. Conventional wisdom will tell you that Close, Bale, Ali, and Adams will be the winners... though conventional wisdom will not solve the case of "who wins Outstanding Cast?" since the arguable Best Picture frontrunner Green Book and two most Oscar-nominated pictures Roma and The Favourite are not nominated in that category. With three heavy-hitters out, and Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star is Born, and BlacKkKlansman as the nominees, that prize is something of a mystery...
ACTRESS But is conventional wisdom correct? We think it is in the case of Glenn Close who has the advantage of being a legendary respected actor with long histories in all three actors mediums (tv, film, theater) which should safely endear her to SAG's voting body. She feels like the safest call within the five acting categories, and she'd be a mortal lock if voters could vote for Olivia Colman as a unit with her Favourite bitches Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz. But since that film weirdly did not receive the cast nomination it so richly deserved, Colman could definitely surprise. Hell, even Lady Gaga could surprise. Remember when Johnny Depp beat Sean Penn in 2003 or when Renée Zellweger beat Nicole Kidman in 2002 because of the love for their blockbuster smashes? If SAG really wants to honor the megahits, they just might.
ACTOR Here we'll see if Bradley Cooper has ANY hope of winning Best Actor at the Oscars after a confusing season where A Star is Born has dominated the conversation but hasn't been able to convert that into winning trophies outside of Best Song. We believe most people are predicting Bale but we think Rami Malek takes this one because if SAG will nominate the entire cast of Bohemian Rhapsody despite everyone but Rami having very little to do within the film, chances are their love is deep (and blind). There's that and there's also the new but very familiar Bryan Singer allegations. We don't believe for even a single hot second that Rami Malek is telling the truth when he says he knew nothing about Singer's history (this has been a news story every once in awhile since 1998 and a noisy rumor even more often than that for the past twenty years) but we think actors will sympathize with the position he's been put in regardless. Who would want to be blamed for their boss's crimes when they themselves are innocent? I've had some good bosses in my life and some terrible ones but in all cases I would have thought it absurd to apologize for taking a job I needed if they were accused of a crime. People gotta work. Better to direct the public ire at the studios hiring Singer than the actors who wanted a job.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS We want this race to stay confusing! We dream of another Supporting Actress race like 2007 where different people keep winning. Why can't we have that more often? Margot Robbie and Emily Blunt didn't make it to the Oscar list so they're out as far as wins go (there's no extenuating circumstances that might help them to a win as there was with Idris Elba some years ago). Regina King was famously snubbed at SAG so she's out. If Amy Adams wins here and repeats at BAFTA, she's likely to win the Oscar and we don't want her winning for this particular role. But she will win SAG. It's been hard to dream up a scenario where Rachel Weisz or Emma Stone becomes the sole winner for The Favourite , so we think this an easy call for Adams.
SUPPORTING ACTOR Some people are predicting Sam Elliott for the same reason that we're predicting Glenn Close and Elliott winning this prize would delight us to no end, since he's an actual supporting actor and both he and the movie, are wonderful and deserve more than just Best Song at some point in the season. But unfortunately we don't see it playing out like that. Green Book's Mahershala Ali has been steamrolling and we think that'll continue through Oscar night, despite the fact that he won SAG and Oscar just two years ago for a better performance. I'm thinking back to Jason Robards who chased that All the President's Men (1976) Oscar win with an entirely inexplicable win the following year despite a barely there performance in Julia (1977) -- even with better internal competition from his own film! Why was he able to do that? Presumably because people were in love with him at the time. Love, as we see with Bohemian Rhapsody, is stronger than any logic about awards histories, sharing the wealth, and discernment about whether a not a performance belongs in a particular category or is up to a particular actor's usually high standards.
OUTSTANDING CAST. We only pray that this won't go to the nothingness of Bohemian Rhapsody outside of Freddie Mercury which is very possible given that it was nominated at all. But we're predicting, not from wishful thinking but from sheer cultural force, that this is where Black Panther finally gets a big award for the season. It's the biggest mainstream award that it has a strong shot at winning given the shut out at BAFTA, its losses at the Globes, and its possibly off-air tech wins at the Oscars. Here is, definitely then, the place to reward it. Nobody would complain about seeing that legion of wonderful actors doing their "Wakanda forever" gesture on live television while beaming with their acting trophies.