All Oscar charts are being updated over the next four days but we started with Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor because there are so many questions haunting us. So go ahead and answer the following quandaries if you can...?
1. Can Tom Hanks finally break his strange Oscar curse?
Before anyone had seen A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood he was a lock "on paper" in Best Actor. But the movie turned out to not be a biopic at all but something far more creative and we'd argue more successful than a biopic would have been, in which Mr. Rogers is more of a symbol and catalyst for another man's journey. It's a gorgeous movie but the switcheroo from expectations to reality will likely throw some Oscar voters as well as general moviegoers. Hanks has been delivering better performances of late than the kind he used to win Oscars for but AMPAS hasn't nominated him in 19 years. Should we expect that they'll continue that "you already got yours" cold shoulder rather than be predicting him?
2. Is Brad Pitt really a lock for Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood?
We locked him up early since he was the universal choice early in the year for 'most likely to go the distance' but is that really a done deal. We know from past complaints (hi Diane Ladd!) that not every actor in the actor's branch likes it when gigantic movie stars go "supporting" when their name is above the title. He's brilliant in the film but in a total movie star way that makes it look effortless and "effortless" is not a word that is often used to describe Oscar-nominated performances. They like to see you sweat. Is his 'lock' overstated... could he in fact be the high profile omission this year? Furthermore the FYC ads we've seen for the film seem to focus on images of Leo and Margot instead.
3. Will no actors of color make it in the male categories?
Right now the closest possibility appears to be Eddie Murphy who is very enjoyable in Dolemite is My Name... though Netflix might have trouble keeping that film in the conversation (traditional theatrical releases tend to have a longer shelf life for people talking about even if straight to streaming has the advantage of everyone being able to see you all at once.) Plus, Best Actor is extra stacked this year and if Murphy made it in along with the very-much-expected Adam Driver, the legendary Robert DeNiro, and the rising possibility of Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes that would be Netflix owning 80% of the category which seems far-fetched to put it lightly. In Supporting Actor there are several viable candidates but none of them have built much momentum at this writing. Will there be a late-breaking impactful moment for someone? A lot of people are talking about Song Kang Ho from Parasite right now but it's worth remembering that the Supporting categories almost never have had subtitled performances in them. (Marina de Taveras was a shocking nomination for several reasons last season.)
4. Can Shia Labeouf's successful year wield any awards results?
Hollywood loves a comeback and/or rebirth and doesn't Shia Labeouf more than qualify this season? His year started strong with kind reviews and then sleeper hit status for the indie The Peanut Butter Falcon He quickly chased that release with a very personal indie about his own life. The former child star turned troubled adult actor has exorcized his personal demons onscreen by playing his own father in Honey Boy. It would be a gimmicky thing given the bald cap and deglamming and stunt casting but for the obvious anguished heart poured into the production. At first we thought Honey Boy was just an Independent Spirit hopeful but a strong per screen average in its first weekend suggests audiences are actually interested. Might actors really love his confessional swing for the fences?
5. Is our love for Alan Alda clouding our judgment of his Supporting Actor bid?
Netflix has him out on the campaign trail where he's a huge loveable hit... but the Marriage Story advertising barely acknowledge him. Why aren't they pushing even harder when it looks like a very possible get due to the massive love the industry feels for him?
6. Who are we underestimating on the Actor or Supporting Actor charts?
Might Anthony Hopkins just come along naturally if The Two Popes catches on (as many think it will) despite having no current buzz? Are we silly for dropping Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse just because it didn't really catch on in theatrical release ? What'cha think?