by Nathaniel R
Is there a stranger 'big eight' Oscar category situation this year than the Supporting categories? Both of them appear to have a weird dearth of mainstream contenders. Meanwhile the critics awards or "precursors" have (thus far) been laser-focused on upping the Oscar viability of just two (or three if we're being generous) arguably non-traditional options in those categories: Maria Bakalova's comic improv genius in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Paul Raci's weary mentor in the hard-edged indie Sound of Metal, and Youn Yuh-Jung's spirited grandmother in Minari.
Which brings up the natural but loaded question of what part critics do or don't / should or shouldn't play in the televised awards races. There are no doubt complicated reasons why critics all across the nation vote so uniformly in some years but we'd argue that it's never from a lack of good options as hundreds of movies starring plentiful gifted actors come out each year...
If we believe that film critics vote only with their hearts we're being generous and also ridiculously naive. Film critics are people, too, and vote for all sorts of complicated reasons (just like regular people in, you know, elections). If we believe that film critics vote only to "influence" or make statements we're being cynical and also reductive. The answer is a complex mix of both plus dozens of other intangibles like a film or performer's profile, how available certain films have been, desire to have certain performers and films represented at awards dinners, scoring points for breadth of taste, genuine passionate responses, personal triggers, and definitely compromises made when the votes are visibly not going their preferred way, and you have to pick between options you don't much care about.
But IF this year's critical boosts thus far are meant in service of actually boosting Oscar chances there are weaknesses to the tactic. Take Paul Raci in Sound of Metal and to a lesser extent Youn Yuh-jung in Minari (who appears to be running second to Bakalova in critic's hearts). Prizes for those performances are easy to defend (both actors are marvelous) and the roles themselves are not very different from the stock roles that Oscar loves in those categories: mentors, grandmothers. But neither actor is famous in the US and Youn has the additional problem of giving a subtitled performance (which have historically had trouble at the Oscars, especially in the supporting categories). If these honors are intended to boost their Oscar futures, the failure of critics to really signal boost the films that house them and the leading stars they support makes the signal boost weak. Supporting nominations for non-famous actors generally only happen if the film itself is a strong player or they have the help of a strong leading player. But so far critics have weirdly ignored the brilliant Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal (the film's best shot at Oscar glory... on paper) and have not heartily embraced the lovely Minari. Exceptions do happen of course. Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom is a good example; she received a deserved nomination despite her then lack of fame and absolutely no support from heat in other categories to keep her in the discussion.
Raci's and Youn's films would make worthy Best Picture contenders but they have significant obstacles to mainstream Oscar love in that they're more gritty and difficult (Sound of Metal) or more tender and gentle and subtitled (Minari) than Oscar voters naturally steer towards each year. How far can Raci get without attention paid to Riz Ahmed or Youn get without love for the leading man Steven Yeun? We'd guess not far but we hopefully to be proven wrong in multiple ways.
Maria Bakalova is another matter entirely. The Golden Globes have classified her as a leading lady in Borat making her an extremely likely Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical nominee. But the Globes have always been friendlier to atypical contenders and not just because they have an entire "comedy" category to fill (they often finds way to fill that with dramatic leaning work, anyway).
Riz and Raci in "Sound of Metal"
As atypical as Bakalova, Raci, and Youn would be in their categories as nominees they all might have stronger shots than they would in a normal year given that so far both of the Supporting categories feel like a weird mix of obvious contenders that have proved divisive (Glenn Close and anyone involved in Mank) or 'assumed gets' that people might not be as excited about as pundits assumed. For instance, is anyone really going to be excited about the sloggy Supernova, Stanley Tucci's category-fraudulent "supporting" bid? (For the record the film's entire plot revolves around him and he's almost never offscreen). And why is there so little talk about Oscar-winner Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman? With Burstyn it might be because the conversation will be happening next month when the film begins streaming or, more troubling, it could be because her screen time is scant and she doesn't get her big juicy monologue until very late in the film.
Check out the charts and report back. What'cha think?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR