After Comedy and Drama Series speculation, we're looking at another Emmy Awards category today – Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series. Five of last year’s nominees are eligible again this year, with only Kit Harington (Game of Thrones) out of the running since the show is over. That leaves defending champion Billy Porter (Pose), previous winner Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), and Jason Bateman (Ozark).
The five series in contention for Best Drama Series after taking last season off don’t play into this category nearly as much since none of them feature a distinct lead who is male...
That said, Tobias Menzies (The Crown) is being campaigned by Netflix in this race, even though the younger portrayer of his character, Matt Smith, was nominated in the supporting race two years ago. It’s too early to tell whether Jeffrey Wright or Ed Harris, both cited in this category two years ago, will be considered lead or supporting for Westworld, though I’d make the case at this point that neither will. New addition Aaron Paul (Westworld), a past Emmy favorite for Breaking Bad, is likelier to be named a lead, but I’m also not sure that will happen. Three-time nominee Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan), last nominated for the 2016-2017 season, is eligible again for the now-cancelled series, but I wouldn’t count on him to return, while past winner Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) was only nominated for his show’s first season but returned to the Golden Globe lineup this year for the final season of his series.
The likeliest threat to boot any of the men listed above is actually from a series in its second year. Brian Cox (Succession) won the Golden Globe, and it’s possible that his show, which was nominated for Best Drama Series last year without any acting bids, will finally earn its due this year following an extremely well-received second season. Cox didn’t, however, merit a SAG nomination, where Brown was joined by four supporting actors, leaving Cox as the only new Globe or SAG nominee who could join this list. He may even be accompanied by costar Jeremy Strong (Succession), who was awarded the corresponding prize from the Critics Choice Association. That show has a strong fan base, especially from readers of this site, but I’m just not sure it translates to the Emmy voter bloc.
From new shows, it’s possible that Steve Carell (The Morning Show) will be placed here instead of in the supporting race, though that would feel strange since he’s considerably less featured than his female costars. It would be hard to argue that Billy Crudup (The Morning Show), who won the Critics Choice supporting prize, would be considered a lead, but it’s always possible. A past winner for Bloodline, Ben Mendelsohn (The Outsider) could factor into the race if his show is embraced. Al Pacino (Hunters) already has two Emmys, and while he’s doing great work in Amazon Prime’s Nazi-hunting show, it may be a bit violent and excessive for voters. Back in 1995, Patrick Stewart (Star Trek: Picard) scored a SAG bid for playing the same character in Star Trek: The Next Generation, and the veteran actor is definitely beloved enough to earn some votes this time around.
So, where does that leave us? While it would be a shame to see Porter snubbed after winning just last year, the same thing happened to Malek a few years back. Pose hasn’t been as high-profile as some of the other shows in contention, and so it might be too under the radar. It would be hard to imagine Bateman or Odenkirk missing since they appear to be default nominees. I believe the same to be true for Brown, even if his show gets omitted from the top race. I’ve been surprised that Ventimiglia has made the cut for three years now, which makes me think he’s just as likely to be included this year. I see Menzies getting in since I think voters will go nuts for the new cast of his show, and I’m not sure there’s room for both Cox and Strong, which makes me think the former is likelier than the latter.
For now, let’s play it safe with our prediction:
- Jason Bateman (Ozark)
- Sterling K Brown (This is Us)
- Brian Cox (Succession)
- Tobias Menzies (The Crown)
- Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
- Milo Ventimigilia (This is Us)
Which actors do you think will make the cut this year? Stay tuned for more Emmy coverage!
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