The Film Experience

Will Succession produce a Best Actor winner? There are two options.

This was going to be the year that Bob Odenkirk finally took home an Emmy for Better Call Saul on his fifth try with a slam dunk episode submission of “Bagman.” But, like Richard Madden for Bodyguard last year, the expected frontrunner got snubbed altogether, leaving the field totally open. There are six great choices for the win. Half this field is new, and this is actually one of the first times that Golden Globe winner Brian Cox and Critics Choice winner Jeremy Strong are nominated against each other, which sets up a major showdown not unlike the one that happens between their characters on Succession.

I’ll try to avoid major plot details in my analysis – but if you'd like more spoiler-filled descriptions, click on the episode titles. Let’s consider each nominee…

Jason Bateman as Marty Byrde in Ozark (Netflix)
Episode: “Su Casa Es Mi Casa”

Even Bateman was surprised last year to hear his name called as a winner for directing this show last year, and now he’s back in this race for the third year in a row with an additional Emmy bid for guest starring on The Outsider. He was out of contention at the mid-year awards because his show took a year and a half off between seasons two and three, but it’s back now and more popular than ever. Rather than submit “Boss Fight,” the episode featured heavily on posters, Bateman chose the sixth episode of the season, which finds him confronting a cracked marriage. It’s a formidable showcase, and he could well join his two nominated costars – Laura Linney and Julia Garner, both of whom have a solid shot in their categories – as winners this year.

Sterling K. Brown as Randall Pearson in This Is Us (NBC)
Episode: “After the Fire”

Brown is the longest-running nominee in this category. He won an Emmy in 2016 for The People vs. OJ Simpson and then for the first season of this show after that, and now he’s on consecutive nomination number four. For the first time, he’s the only regular cast member nominated from the hit show (which missed out on a slot in the Best Drama Series race for the first time). He is, however, also a nominee for his supporting role on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, which could give him a boost. Despite obviously lower voter enthusiasm for his show, it’s hard to argue with the effectiveness of his performance, especially in an episode that finds him reconstructing history and processing how his life could have been different with a therapist. It shows him vulnerable in a way this show rarely does.

Steve Carell as Mitch Kessler in The Morning Show (Apple TV Plus)
Episode: “Lonely at the Top”

Carell received six Emmy nominations for playing the world’s most insufferable boss on The Office – he never won – and now he’s here for drama for playing a wholly different and much more toxic man abusing his position of power. I’d argue that he’s not a leading man, but that doesn’t mean his performance isn’t incredibly strong. Rather than choose an installment where he vigorously defends the fact that he did nothing wrong, Carell smartly selected the flashback episode that shows the problematic and predatory behavior that leads to him getting fired in the series premiere. He’s a dark horse, but it would be a solid way to reward an actor who’s shown tremendous range with this turn (even if it’s reverse category fraud).

Brian Cox as Logan Roy in Succession (HBO)
Episode: “Hunting”

Cox won an Emmy in 2001 for his supporting performance in Nur emberg and contended again the next year for guest-starring on Frasier. He won the Golden Globe this past January for his scenery-chewing in season two of HBO’s hit drama as the world’s worst father and potentially also its most soulless CEO. The phrase “boar on the floor” should conjure enough for fans of the show to pinpoint his episode submission, but if you’re not a fan of the show (or you love it a lot), watch the clip above where he runs an inquest to find a leak by forcing suspect employees to literally kneel on the ground. That’s one hell of an Emmy clip, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if it won him the award.

Billy Porter as Pray Tell in Pose (FX)
Episode: “Love's in Need of Love Today”

Porter is the defending champion in this category. His submitted episode takes place during the same event as last year’s, the AIDS cabaret, but finds Pray confronting his own mortality as his health takes a turn for the worse. It’s another formidable showcase, though Porter isn’t the most prominently-featured player. His show is also absent from the Best Drama Series category, where it was nominated last year, so a repeat win seems unlikely for this talented performer whose show only picked up technical nominations.

Jeremy Strong as Kendall Roy in Succession
Episode: “This Is Not for Tears”

Strong is the only first-time nominee in this category, nominated alongside his onscreen father, played by Cox. In contrast to that ferocious turn, Strong is much more subdued and submissive as a wayward son aware that his father is the only one keeping him afloat. The season finale allows him to showcase a range of emotions as he watches his father’s latest activities, and it all culminates in one absolutely formidable speech that rivals Cox’s Emmy clip (but is far more spoiler-filled). The question is whether a quieter performance like Strong’s can stand out, especially when he fades more into the background in Cox’s episode.

Personal Ranking:

Steve Carell, The Morning Show
Billy Porter, Pose
Sterling K Brown, This is Us
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Brian Cox, Succession

Predicted Winner: Jeremy Strong, Succession

Potential Spoiler: Jason Bateman, Ozark

I’m going to assume that voters like Succession a lot more than I do (it’s growing on me) and that Strong astounds so much in his episode that he can beat Cox. Watch out for Bateman waiting in the wings if they split the vote. Two nominees from one show are very common in this category – Strong would join an exclusive club of less common winners from a double-nominated show like Sterling K Brown and Dennis Franz.

Who are you rooting for?