Emmy Review: Lead Actor in a Drama
Saturday, August 22, 2020 at 10:00AM 
Will Succession produce a Best Actor winner? There are two options.
This was going to be the year that Bob Odenkirk finally took home an Emmy for Better Call Saul on his fifth try with a slam dunk episode submission of “Bagman.” But, like Richard Madden for Bodyguard last year, the expected frontrunner got snubbed altogether, leaving the field totally open. There are six great choices for the win. Half this field is new, and this is actually one of the first times that Golden Globe winner Brian Cox and Critics Choice winner Jeremy Strong are nominated against each other, which sets up a major showdown not unlike the one that happens between their characters on Succession.
I’ll try to avoid major plot details in my analysis – but if you'd like more spoiler-filled descriptions, click on the episode titles. Let’s consider each nominee…
Jason Bateman as Marty Byrde in Ozark (Netflix)
Episode: “Su Casa Es Mi Casa”
Even Bateman was surprised last year to hear his name called as a winner for directing this show last year, and now he’s back in this race for the third year in a row with an additional Emmy bid for guest starring on The Outsider. He was out of contention at the mid-year awards because his show took a year and a half off between seasons two and three, but it’s back now and more popular than ever. Rather than submit “Boss Fight,” the episode featured heavily on posters, Bateman chose the sixth episode of the season, which finds him confronting a cracked marriage. It’s a formidable showcase, and he could well join his two nominated costars – Laura Linney and Julia Garner, both of whom have a solid shot in their categories – as winners this year.
Sterling K. Brown as Randall Pearson in This Is Us (NBC)
Episode: “After the Fire”
Brown is the longest-running nominee in this category. He won an Emmy in 2016 for The People vs. OJ Simpson and then for the first season of this show after that, and now he’s on consecutive nomination number four. For the first time, he’s the only regular cast member nominated from the hit show (which missed out on a slot in the Best Drama Series race for the first time). He is, however, also a nominee for his supporting role on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, which could give him a boost. Despite obviously lower voter enthusiasm for his show, it’s hard to argue with the effectiveness of his performance, especially in an episode that finds him reconstructing history and processing how his life could have been different with a therapist. It shows him vulnerable in a way this show rarely does.
Steve Carell as Mitch Kessler in The Morning Show (Apple TV Plus)
Episode: “Lonely at the Top”
Carell received six Emmy nominations for playing the world’s most insufferable boss on The Office – he never won – and now he’s here for drama for playing a wholly different and much more toxic man abusing his position of power. I’d argue that he’s not a leading man, but that doesn’t mean his performance isn’t incredibly strong. Rather than choose an installment where he vigorously defends the fact that he did nothing wrong, Carell smartly selected the flashback episode that shows the problematic and predatory behavior that leads to him getting fired in the series premiere. He’s a dark horse, but it would be a solid way to reward an actor who’s shown tremendous range with this turn (even if it’s reverse category fraud).
Brian Cox as Logan Roy in Succession (HBO)
Episode: “Hunting”
Cox won an Emmy in 2001 for his supporting performance in Nur emberg and contended again the next year for guest-starring on Frasier. He won the Golden Globe this past January for his scenery-chewing in season two of HBO’s hit drama as the world’s worst father and potentially also its most soulless CEO. The phrase “boar on the floor” should conjure enough for fans of the show to pinpoint his episode submission, but if you’re not a fan of the show (or you love it a lot), watch the clip above where he runs an inquest to find a leak by forcing suspect employees to literally kneel on the ground. That’s one hell of an Emmy clip, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if it won him the award.
Billy Porter as Pray Tell in Pose (FX)
Episode: “Love's in Need of Love Today”
Porter is the defending champion in this category. His submitted episode takes place during the same event as last year’s, the AIDS cabaret, but finds Pray confronting his own mortality as his health takes a turn for the worse. It’s another formidable showcase, though Porter isn’t the most prominently-featured player. His show is also absent from the Best Drama Series category, where it was nominated last year, so a repeat win seems unlikely for this talented performer whose show only picked up technical nominations.
Jeremy Strong as Kendall Roy in Succession
Episode: “This Is Not for Tears”
Strong is the only first-time nominee in this category, nominated alongside his onscreen father, played by Cox. In contrast to that ferocious turn, Strong is much more subdued and submissive as a wayward son aware that his father is the only one keeping him afloat. The season finale allows him to showcase a range of emotions as he watches his father’s latest activities, and it all culminates in one absolutely formidable speech that rivals Cox’s Emmy clip (but is far more spoiler-filled). The question is whether a quieter performance like Strong’s can stand out, especially when he fades more into the background in Cox’s episode.
Personal Ranking:
- Steve Carell, The Morning Show
- Billy Porter, Pose
- Sterling K Brown, This is Us
- Jeremy Strong, Succession
- Jason Bateman, Ozark
- Brian Cox, Succession
Predicted Winner: Jeremy Strong, Succession
Potential Spoiler: Jason Bateman, Ozark
I’m going to assume that voters like Succession a lot more than I do (it’s growing on me) and that Strong astounds so much in his episode that he can beat Cox. Watch out for Bateman waiting in the wings if they split the vote. Two nominees from one show are very common in this category – Strong would join an exclusive club of less common winners from a double-nominated show like Sterling K Brown and Dennis Franz.
Who are you rooting for?
DRAMA
Actress | Actor | Supp Actress | Supp Actor | Guest Actress | Guest Actor
COMEDY
Actress | Actor | Supp. Actress | Supp Actor | Guest Actress | Guest Actor
LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
TV Movie | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp Actress
MISC
Costumes, Fantasy | Costumes, Period | Animated Program
Reader Comments (24)
Rooting for: Jeremy Strong.
for the last nine years this award has gone to an actor whose show is in either its first or final season. that bodes well for steve carrell
I am absolutely loving these posts. It's so interesting to analyze episodes submitted for consideration. I have tried "Succession" and "Ozark" numerous times and just can't find any heart or soul in either program. The acting is fantastic on both though. Brown's character had a very problematic arc this season, and the charismatic actor struggled to make you care. Porter is Porter, which is fabulous.
When I did watch "Succession," I was struck by Strong's performance in particular. I felt very uncomfortable with his constant humiliation. He is probably my pick for a show I don't even like.
I'm really feeling a vote split with the Succession guys, but Jodie Comer overcame just that last year so who knows.
If a certain trend from the last nine years continues in this category, then the only possible winner is Steve Carell. What trend is that? Well, here are the last nine winners in the category...
Kyle Chandler for the final season of Friday Night Lights
Damian Lewis for the first season of Homeland
Jeff Daniels for the first season of The Newsroom
Bryan Cranston for the final season of Breaking Bad
Jon Hamm for the final season of Mad Men
Rami Malek for the first season of Mr. Robot
Sterling K. Brown for the first season of This Is Us
Matthew Rhys for the final season of The Americans
Billy Porter for the first season of Pose
So, given that Steve Carell is the only nominee here contending for either the first or final season of his show, then it would stand to reason to predict him. I'm personally rooting for Jeremy Strong (mostly because Bob Odenkirk and Tobias Menzies aren't here, though I do think Strong is the best part of Succession), but that would require a break in this trend. Will it happen? We'll see...
Predicted winner: Jeremy Strong. Potential spoilers: Bryan Cox, in case of vote splitting - Jason Bateman.
I found most of the performances in The Morning Show to be more or less one note.
I think this goes to one of the Succession guys. Cox has longevity and industry appreciation, but Strong has the buzziest performance. Toss up.
@par and @Richter Scale - I did neglect to mention that nine-year trend. Even if recent examples like Green Book and Parasite winning Best Picture have shown that stats aren't always predictors, I'm still inclined to consider them. The two main reasons I think Carell won't win are that his show isn't nominated for Best Drama Series, and, unlike Jeff Daniels, he's not the only performer from his show nominated.
@Mike Johnson - I completely agree about Ozark and Succession. This was my first year watching the entire season of both (very recently), and while I'm starting to see why people like them, I still wouldn't consider them anywhere near the best of the season. I was impressed with the performances from Tom Pelphrey, Janet McTeer, Holly Hunter, and Annabelle Dexter-Jones (who wasn't even on the ballot), and I wish they had been included. I'm fine with all the actors that did get nominated from both but I think Nicholas Braun and Harriet Walter didn't need to get in.
abe, thanks for your continued smart coverage! i think it will be one of the two Succession gents, with whoever doesn't win still being the person to collect the second-highest votes. within the industry, Succession is still a year later all anyone talks about. cox and strong are doing a dance at a shakespearean level that none of the other nominees have at their disposal. i'd be sad as a voter to have to pick one of them.
Abe - I understand, but I think there's more to consider with Carell. Even though The Morning Show didn't get a Drama Series nomination, it got five acting nominations and a Directing nomination, so it does have a lot of support, way more than The Newsroom ever got (and, FYI, Jane Fonda was also nominated that year for The Newsroom, so Daniels wasn't the only nominee). Also, Steve Carell is an overdue veteran. He was nominated six times for playing Michael Scott on The Office and never won, therefore voters could see this as a chance to finally give him an Emmy. This is why I could very easily see Steve Carell winning.
I was a big Morning Show fan, but I find Carell’s placement here odd. He wasn’t a lead, but I get why he went this way. Some of his material, and even performance over the season was subpar. However, his performance in this episode is powerful, and he anchors one of the best episodes of the television season really well. I could see voters going for him.
I don’t think succession will split. Strong and Cox are both great contenders.
And Emmy voters love multiple wins, so seeing Brown win again is easy to see.
This is a tough category.
I don't understand the love for Carrell. I'm getting another version of him in Crazy Stupid Love, instead of a Matt Lauer vibe. Virtually everyone else in Morning Show is better.
@Richter Scale - Daniels was the only regular player nominated and therefore he was who voters could reward. Both Aniston and Crudup have a solid shot at winning. That doesn’t mean Carell won’t also, but it’s just hard to imagine his performance being taken seriously as a leading role. I was predicting him in supporting before we saw his place on the ballot, and so maybe in the absence of a concrete frontrunner like Odenkirk, he will be able to pull through. It would still be a bit of a surprise, that stat notwithstanding.
The Morning Show is OVERRATED.
I hope Brian Cox wins, with Jeremy winning for season 3 whenever it comes out.
Succession is just that good.
LOVING these posts and this series - thanks heaps team :)
I love these posts...regarding Best Actor Drama: my heart is with Jeremy but a Brian’s win would be awesome
F- It's only overrated by awards groups. Critics said meh and regular viewers said sub-meh. The awards groups are probably giving it more love because of the big names attached.
I’d still be a Porter voter. Love the Succession guys but I enjoy everything Porter does as Pray Tell that I’d support a repeat win
I actually enjoyed The Morning Show and would be fine if Jennifer Aniston won her category (it's maybe the most impressed I've been with her). That said, Succession is in another category, and Jeremy Strong gives my favorite tv performance since Jon Hamm and Elisabeth Moss on Mad Men, so I am rooting hard for him. (Cox would be a great winner as well.
I don't care for Jason Bateman. /Lucille Bluth voice.
Maybe it's because I'm currently watching the Morning Show, but I think Carrell has a real shot of winning, even if it's just a career thing since he never won for The Office. Before watching this, Strong would've been my predicted winner.
But Emmys are weird who knows.
Give me Brian Cox for the win, and if I can't have that, please give me Jeremy Strong.
As you may have noticed I am a strong "Succession" fan.
Watching a show about the oligarchy in action seems very timely.
Brian Cox for the win hopefully and if not then Jeremy Strong.
I think its between Cox & Strong and it might be an odd comparison, but it reminds me of Shirley MacLaine & Debra Winger in Terms Of Endearment. Shirley won for the great brassy Aurora, but Debra was better, imho, as the beleaguered Emma. And I would have loved to see Flap Horton playing boar on the floor.