by Nathaniel R
don't despair ladies, you're the only two locks in "Best Supporting Actress"
We saw a tweet yesterday that implied that the Oscar race for Best Supporting Actress is now between Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) and Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) which felt a bit insane to us. That's a Globe induced fever. Nevertheless the shock of Foster's win for a movie people have barely noticed does maybe tell us that the Supporting Actress competition is more fluid than assumed. So who is leading and who is going to be left out on the 15th when the nominations are announced? The way we see it there are 9 women left standing for various reasons (which is a lot going into voting since it's usually only 6 or 7 by now). Only two of them (Glenn Close and Olivia Colman) feel locked up for honors. Curiously despite the sure-thing feel of Colman's soon to be second nomination, it's unlikely she has ANY shot at a win. Her Oscar win is very recent and The Father isn't quite the contender it should be (qualitatively speaking) given its quiet campaign. But the nomination battle is always different than the battle to win.
Who gets the other three spots?
Close's competition for the win remains surely either Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Youn Yuh-Jun (Minari), or Amanda Seyfried (Mank) but each of them needs the nomination first and all of them have obstacles. Yes, Bakalova has been beloved by the precursors but at the end of the day it's still outlandish improv comedy which Oscar rarely goes for. Youn missed the Globe nods and she's also an Asian actress (the minority group that Oscar has been the absolute stingiest with in the acting categories, given the films that have been in competition) so she could still be passed over on nomination morning though that would horrify us. Seyfried has the benefit of being in what might be the nomination leader and paired with a major leading actor contender but she missed the SAG nomination and its possible the actors don't love Mank as much as the craft branches do.
All three could easily be nominated but the dark horse candidates are strong, too, so one OR EVEN TWO of them might fail to secure the nod.
There are four spoiler contenders still standing who could easily or theoretically sub in for any of them. Little German child star Helena Zengel nabbed both SAG and Globe nods for News of the World and the film is doing well with precursors; she has to be considered a major threat. In fact, statistically she's more likely than Youn Yuh-Jung though we think Minari love could be strong enough to offset that. Ellen Burstyn is a living legend and former Oscar favourite (6 noms and 1 win) paired with a major Best Actress contender in Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman. Coattails are a real awards thing. We've seen them drag people in time and time again. (Then again, Burstyn hasn't received much play this season so she feels unlikely).
And speaking of coattails... though she's received no attention yet, if there's any surprise nod on Oscar nominations morning in this category, Dominique Fishback would make more sense than Jodie Foster as she's paired with Supporting Actor frontrunner (?) Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah in what is a completely textbook Best Supporting Actress style role aka the "long suffering girlfriend/wife" part.
And then there's Jodie Foster. We think she's a Globe fluke since the HFPA have always deeply loved her (8 nominations, 2 wins, plus a Cecil B Demille Award) but you never know. The Globe win may be enough to get AMPAS voters placing that screeners in their players in the next couple of days and finally watching it.
We still think Glenn Close is going to win in the end but with 9 arguably viable contenders for 5 slots, nomination morning is going to sting for a few actresses and their fans. And then the race for the win begins. SEE THE CURRENT CHART.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IS MUCH LESS CHAOTIC
We're sticking with last month's predictions since there hasn't been much disagreement with the precursors in terms of this category. We think the nominees will be
- Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods (LOCK)
- Sacha Baron Cohen - Chicago 7 (LOCK)
- Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the BLack Messiah (LOCK/FRONTRUNNER)
- Leslie Odom Jr - One Night in Miami (LOCK)
- Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
For the fifth slot we're going with critical darling Paul Raci even though he missed at both the SAG and Globes. History is filled with critics awards winners that failed to secure Oscar love but we think Riz Ahmed's strong campaign will help Raci squeak in. The coattails effect is often derided because unworthy contenders often benefit but it CAN be used for good and this would be benevolent usage.
Still that fifth slot might go to Bill Murray or Jared Leto instead if voters are feeling lazy and not watching their screeners and defaulting to familiar stars. IF there's a surprise we might see David Strathairn or Charles Dance or Mark Rylance or Glynn Turman pop up but that's unlikely. It would probably require chaos in the vote totals and a kind of 'character actor loving disgruntled voting block' hiding out there in Academy land, uninterest in many of the frontrunners. Haha.
OH AND HERE'S MY OWN BALLOT FOR THESE TWO CATEGORIES AT THE FILM BITCH AWARDS.
(Keep in mind that, as a staunch calendar year advocate, Judas and the Black Messiah is not eligible. Any film which is firmly a 2021 picture -- i.e. no premieres or play in 2020 -- is ineligible. And even if it were Daniel Kaluuya is not remotely a supporting actor since he's playing Fred Hampton in the Fred Hampton biopic. He's half of this titular character duet!