The Film Experience

Our team is breaking down the top contenders in all the major Emmy races and highlighting some of our favorites. Today, we’re looking at Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Series

Ethan Hawke's performance as John Brown in "The Good Lord Bird" looks to win the star his first Emmy.

By: Christopher James

Heading into Emmy nominations for this particular category, we don’t have a single actor who has won a precursor. We’re in a race without a frontrunner! The past year of awards all went to Mark Ruffalo for I Know This Much Is True, who also won the Emmy. This makes the race all the more exciting. Will the Emmys award the star of a series nominated in many categories, or will they go for a big name actor in a series that doesn’t show up anywhere else. They went with the latter last year, as Ruffalo was the only nominee for I Know This Much is True.

Read on to see who might be in contention this year...

Hugh Grant has earned all the necessary precursors for his performance in "The Undoing" on HBO.

Proven Awards Players

So far, the only person with SAG, Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations in this category is Hugh Grant for HBO’s The Undoing. The popular HBO mystery was received with more mixed opinions than other major limited series contenders. Yet, Grant has been going through a career renaissance, recently nominated for an Emmy for A Very English Scandal. That could’ve paved the way for him to win his first Emmy for his work as a duplicitous doctor who may or may not have murdered a woman.

His main competition is another awards favorite who has yet to win an Emmy. Ethan Hawke swings for the fences in the Civil War-era drama The Good Lord Bird, where he plays abolitionist John Brown. This would be Hawke’s first Emmy nomination, but he’s been a major player in the Oscars. His movie star status could help him win for the Showtime series, even if The Good Lord Bird doesn’t contend in other categories. This would be a similar path that Mark Ruffalo took to win last year.

The Emmys love few people more than Bryan Cranston. He has received 11 acting nominations and four Emmy wins over his long career, and it has been for more than just Breaking Bad. Since that legendary series ended, Cranston has also earned nominations for All The Way (where he played Lyndon B. Johnson) and Curb Your Enthusiasm (in the guest actor category). This signals that the Emmys are far from over their love affair so it could continue this year for Showtime’s Your Honor.

The other Showtime contender here is Jeff Daniels for The Comey Rule. The ripped-from-the-headlines approach worked well for The Loudest Voice last season, but that had a stronger precursor run. So far, Daniels has only received a Golden Globe nomination for his work as James Comey.

The Fargo anthology series has brought many actors Emmy nominations and wins. However, the fourth season of FX’s series failed to achieve the same level of buzz and viewership of previous seasons. Chris Rock earned a Critics Choice nomination for his work in the series, but it feels less likely that this will translate into a corresponding Emmy nomination.

If the Emmys embrace "WandaVision," will Paul Bettany also receive an acting nomination?Late Breaking Juggernauts

Marvel Studios has never managed acting nominations, but can that change this year? WandaVision has received the most buzz of any of Marvel’s TV offerings and this category is weaker than normal. This could leave room for Paul Bettany to break in for his performance as Vision in the show. However, the acting buzz for WandaVision is more concentrated on the female stars - Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn.

Similarly, the acting buzz for The Underground Railroad has mostly gone to breakout female star Thuso Mbedu. Still, the weaker field could allow Joel Edgerton to get nominated for his work as the villainous bounty hunter.

The lead actor field tends to favor flashy performances of real-life figures. This could spell success for Ewan McGregor in Ryan Murphy’s latest miniseries for Netflix, Halston. McGregor certainly goes for it in his portrayal of the legendary clothing designer. Yet, the show was savaged by critics and Murphy’s Emmy success has been waning in recent years.

Other recent premieres that could result in an Emmy nomination are Andrew Scott for HBO’s Oslo and Ashley Thomas for Amazon Prime’s Them.

Jude Law is a dark horse contender as the star of "The Third Day."

Potential Underdogs

With little consensus in the field, there’s room for upsets. HBO has even more contenders, including Jude Law (The Third Day) and Olly Alexander (It’s a Sin). If voters look towards TV Movies, then Amazon Prime’s Uncle Frank could see its star Paul Bettany sneak into the category. Few topics are more relevant now than virus/plague/post-apocalyptic content. Paramount+’s The Stand didn’t make a huge splash when it first premiered. Yet, stars Alexander Skarsgard and James Marsden are on the ballot and could surprise, particularly former winner Skarsgard.

Will the TV vs. Movie vs. Play debate around "Hamilton" cost Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. Emmy nominations?

The Hamilton of It All

Hamilton is not eligible for Outstanding TV Movie, but that won’t stop it from racking up Emmy nominations. Its stars have made it onto the acting ballots in the limited series/TV movie categories. Few pieces of media have been awarded as much as Hamilton. The challenge will not be getting voters to watch the groundbreaking show. It will be in reminding enough people that the cast is eligible. Both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards nominated Hamilton stars, but in different categories. If voters see Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. on the ballot, my suspicion is that they will definitely add them. It helps that this field is much weaker than the actress category.

PREDICTIONS

Ethan Hawke - The Good Lord Bird
Hugh Grant - The Undoing
Lin-Manuel Miranda - Hamilton
Bryan Cranston - Your Honor
Leslie Odom, Jr. - Hamilton

Who are you rooting for in the Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Series Or Movie category this year? What are your predictions?

more on the upcoming Emmys