The Film Experience

Our team is breaking down the top contenders in all the major Emmy races and highlighting some of our favorites over the next few weeks.

So far, Anya Taylor-Joy has won the Golden Globe, SAG Award and Critics Choice Award for "The Queen's Gambit." Is an Emmy next?By: Christopher James

The limited series field became the go-to place for stories about women this past year. Great performances from Oscar winning actresses go head to head with buzzy, zeitgeisty performances from rising stars. There’s no shortage of contenders, but a shortage of slots. Only five women will earn nominations when they are announced on July 13th. Perennial winner Anya Taylor-Joy (The Queen’s Gambit) will likely show up. Will she win though once up again Oscar winner Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown)? Could a critical favorite like Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You) or Thuso Mbedu (The Underground Railroad) surprise? Or will they end up as a shocking snub?

Read on to see who might be in contention this year...

If Michaela Coel gets into Lead Actress in a Limited Series for "I May Destroy You," could she pull an upset?

Proven Awards Players

The Queen’s Gambit star Anya Taylor-Joy has not lost a major precursor hit. The star of the Netflix juggernaut won this category at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards. There’s no question that she’s heading into this race as the frontrunner and is a lock for a nomination.

Though it has been one year since its premiere, critics are still loudly banging the drum for I May Destroy You and its creator/star Michaela Coel. Her Golden Globes snub only brought more attention to her performance and the show at large. Its frank portrayal of sexual assault and the PTSD trauma that lingers has struck a chord that still rings loud and true. With SAG and Critics Choice nominations, it’s clear that people are discovering her performance and it’s likely the Emmys will take notice.

The only other SAG nominee and Golden Globe nominee still eligible is Oscar winner Nicole Kidman for her work in HBO’s The Undoing. The star-studded mystery thriller was well-watched, but had more mixed reactions from audiences and critics. Its pedigree puts it towards the top of the conversation, but it’s hard to call Kidman’s nomination anything more than name-checking. Still, the Emmys love her and The Undoing was a popular hit, so we shouldn’t count Kidman out.

The only other performer who has reaped a major nomination heading into the Emmys is Tessa Thompson, the star of Amazon’s romance Sylvie’s Love. Thompson was among the nominees for the Critics Choice Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie category. Recently, the Emmys have favored limited series more than TV movies in these combined acting categories. With such a crowded field, Thompson is unlikely to earn a nomination for more subdued work, even if she is very winning in the film.

Kate Winslet is looking to win her second Emmy for her performance in HBO's "Mare of Easttown."

Late Breaking Juggernauts

The most recent cultural TV obsession has been Mare of Easttown and a large part of its success can be attributed to Kate Winslet’s performance as the titular detective. Winslet nails both the tricky Pennsylvanian accent and the layered portrayal of grief throughout the seven episode run. Along with Anya Taylor-Joy, Winslet is the only other lock for a nomination in this category. When all is said and done, she could be the eventual winner too. She’s previously won this category for HBO’s Mildred Pierce.

Arguably though, the most watched contender in this category is WandaVision. Wanda Maximoff herself, Elizabeth Olsen, received a great deal of praise for the show, in which she brought to life fifty years of sitcom tropes while working through her grief. The best shot for a WandaVision nomination is in Supporting Actress for Kathryn Hahn. However, Olsen would be the second most likely place for the show to earn nominations. Plus, if WandaVision is going to show up in the Limited Series category, it will likely have to show up here too.

One of the possible major contenders in all categories this year is The Underground Railroad. The Barry Jenkins miniseries was one of the most recent series to premiere, as it dropped all ten episodes on Amazon Prime mid-May. While the direction has gotten the lion’s share of the praise, critics are heralding Thuso Mbedu’s impressive breakout performance as Cora in the series. It’s possible that Mbedu could be snubbed in favor of more famous contenders, even if the show garners other major nominations. Still, fans of the show are likely to show support for the central performance of The Underground Railroad.

We can also never count out biopic mimicry. Specifically, the Genius series has always landed acting nominations for its central performances (Geoffrey Rush for Einstein and Antonio Banderas for Picasso). Cynthia Erivo could easily get nominated for Genius: Aretha. She’s at the exact right point in her career to make it onto awards ballots. Additionally, Danielle Brooks takes on another musical icon in Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia. If the Emmys really want to reward real-life performances, Brooks could also make it in.

Kate Mara contends in Hulu's "A Teacher," centering on her inappropriate relationship with a student (Nick Robinson).

The Underdogs

There are plenty of other underdogs eligible this year who have not showed up at any of the precursors. These are all performers from somewhat Emmy popular categories who haven’t heavily factored into the race yet. HBO Max has a pair of contenders that could sneak in - Ruth Wilson (Oslo) and Naomie Harris (The Third Day). Oslo is more recent, so Wilson likely has more of a chance than Harris. Kate Mara received some strong notices for Hulu’s half-hour drama A Teacher. The first season of Dirty John saw buzz for star Connie Britton. Could Amanda Peet end up with an Emmy nomination for the second season of the anthology series?

If voters are more in the mood for musicals and comedies, there are also underdogs on the ballot for them. Dolly Parton projects always receive nominations for TV Movie, could Christmas on the Square earn support for acting for both Parton and Christine Baranski? The Emmys also love Melissa McCarthy. Could that love lead to a surprise nomination for Superintelligence on HBO Max?

Horror fans may rally around Victoria Pedretti for The Haunting of Bly Manor. Yet its predecessor didn’t receive much traction a few years ago.

PREDICTIONS

Who are you rooting for?

more on the upcoming Emmys