by Nathaniel R
Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin in "Respect"
We'd love not to be a broken record but until the Academy isn't, we must sing the same choppy tune: The Academy has a biopic problem. They just can't give them up and nearly always view mimicry (of various degrees) as more of an achievement than character creation from scratch. We'll never understand it exactly but it keeps reasserting its truth. So that's always where you have to begin with predictions. This year's Best Actress category has the potential to be entirely performances based on real people.
Not that it will be. There are (that we know of thus far) seven real life characters as female leading roles this season...
Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Bakker in "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
The ones marked by an asterisks are more traditional biopics in that they're about very famous people in which the actor will be expected to emulate that person in some way either through direct mimicry or by interpreting their spirit.
- Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye *
- Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
- Jennifer Hudson, Respect *
- Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos *
- Taylour Paige, Zola
- Dylan Penn, Flag Day
- Kristen Stewart, Spencer *
But of course there's more to acting than just playing real life people so there are MANY other possibilities for "Bests" this year which is what the extensive BEST ACTRESS CHART is for. We figured we'd lead with the biographical stuff because it always has the edge on paper which also means it has the edge in prerelease buzz before people can get excited about what the movie and the performances are actually like.
Once the movies arrive and we're all seeing them (the best part!) favourites can be chosen but until then, it's just the fun and/or agony of anticipation, speculation, and prognostication.
CURIOUSITY
For what it's worth here are the five performances I'm most personally curious about in that I either don't know what to expect and/or I'm just eager to see what the actress does with that particular role.
- Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye
- Cruz, Parallel Mothers
- Kidman, Being the Ricardos (Y'all know I looooove me some Nicole Kidman but this is a risky move. It'll either be great or terrible - somewhere in the middle seems the most unlikely, doesn't it?)
- Lawrence, Don't Look Up (Feels like she's been gone forever, correct?)
- McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth (Can't picture her as Lady Macbeth which is why it's exciting)
CATEGORY PLACEMENT FLUIDITY
It's worth noting, now that all four acting charts are up and our first wave of predictions are complete, that category placement is always fluid. Some of the current placement on the charts is conjecture and some is confirmed. Some is just common sense that it would never occur to anyone to cheat on; Nobody is going to pretend Denzel Washington isn't the lead of Macbeth or that Gaga isn't leading House of Gucci for example.
Kiki Dunst on the set of "Power of the Dog" with director Jane Campion.
But several performers could change charts from lead to supporting or the other way around, especially for films which probably have two to three leads (I'm assuming Power of the Dog, for example, is a three lead film but have guessed two of them in supporting including Kirsten Dunst who we might see in lead instead. Hopefully she'll be campaigned in the correct category, whichever that turns out to be.)
The various distributors and awards strategists will eventually make announcements. Sometimes those strategies will change once it's easier to read the room after the fall film festivals. But category placement isn't even secure until the nominations are read as we were reminded about again last year when LaKeith Stanfield was nominated in supporting after campaigning (correctly) as a lead for Judas and the Black Messiah.
PREDICTION CHART INDEX
first wave predictions are complete
Which of the best actress competitors are you most excited about sight unseen?