by Nathaniel R
Though 2022 is half over we must acknowledge that the Oscar race is only really just beginning. Oscar voters rarely pay attention, sadly, until late in the year so honors like the HCA "midyear" awards (just announced) and our own list-making of Halfway Mark Best Of the Year Thus Far surely fall on deaf ears, especially since Hollywood is deep in Emmy campaign season (well, waiting-for-Emmy-nomination seasons to be exact). Nevertheless let's talk about what's happened so far and what could happen going forward while we update the Oscar charts.
There's a lot of people saying a lot of things...
BEST ACTOR <--- Updated Chart
Of the four acting categories, this is the only one that got "All Shook Up" this past week...
That was on account of Baz Luhrmann's Elvis opening in theaters. The film's immediate embrace by audiences removes the most serious obstacle the film had. If it had been perceived as a flop it would have had an extremely difficult time being taken seriously late in the year. You can flop and still hit with the Oscars but you're about thousand percent more likely to do that if you flop DURING the heat of the season when they're considering you regardless of whether the audience turns up. That's just one of the many non-level playing field advantages late year releases have.
All of which is a long way of saying that we're feeling very good about Austin Butler's chances. He was already in our top five on the year-in-advance chart when we only had the film's genre to go on. Given that he's electric in the film and it's hard to resist those 'star is born' performances, we've booted him up to #1. This is not a 'he's going to win' prediction -- the charts are never about that pre-nominations -- we still have a lot of movies yet to enter the race. Plus he's young. He turns 31 this August so if he wins, he'll be the fourth youngest Best Actor winner of all time.
Youngest winners
- Adrien Brody (The Pianist) - 29 (one month shy of 30)
- Richard Dreyfus (The Goodbye Girl) - 30
- Marlon Brando (On the Waterfront) - 30 (just a few days shy of 31)
- Maximillian Schell (Judgment at Nuremberg) - 31 and 4 months
.... this is where Austin Butler would go if he wins as he'd be 31½ - Nicolas Cage (Leaving Las Vegas) - 32
HAS ANYTHING ELSE HAPPENED THAT WILL AFFECT BEST ACTOR?
You could point to Top Gun Maverick's historic success and suggest Tom Cruise but we'd have to giggle and then worry. Okay, now stranger things have happened at the Oscars and there has been an overall kind of lionization of Tom Cruise as THE LAST MOVIE STAR this summer but in the end we just don't think they'll think of it as an acting movie. Plus Cruise stopped chasing Oscar favor long ago (it must have hurt to lose for both Jerry Maguire and Born on the 4th of July, either of which would have aged well as wins). Regardless Top Gun Maverick will snag Oscar nominations given its #1 of the year popularity. The question is how many and can it break out of the tech categories?
In our April Foolish chart we also suggested that Viggo Mortensen could surprise if Crimes of the Future was another A History of Violence/Eastern Promises. Alas, it wasn't. Audiences didn't turn out for his third collaboration with David Cronenberg and critics weren't excited even though they were respectful. So we've removed Viggo from the chart (even though he's very good in the film) and have replaced him with the Cannes Best Actor winner Song Kang-ho for the Korean language film Broker.
Subtitled performances always have a hard time courting Oscar favor, so we didn't place him high on the chart, but Broker has at least two specific things going for it: First, it's got NEON behind it and they've already made Oscar history with Parasite; Second, Song Kang-ho was the star of Parasite so voters will be somewhat familiar with him even if they're mostly otherwise ignorant of Korean cinema (where Song is, of course, ubiquitous and a bonafide movie star).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR <-- Updated Chart
Despite our own love for Elvis and probably the Academy's too, it's unlikely that Tom Hanks is on his way to a seventh nomination. It took the Academy skipping over numerous worthy performances from him to finally welcome him back with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (2019). What's more many people are citing this Elvis performance as the worst of his career. We wouldn't go that far but it is definitely a strange one. The Academy has nominated over the top acting before simply because they like the actor and/or the movie or it was "time", but all the reasons that normally help that occur won't apply to a two-time winner who just recently made an awards comeback. There's just no incentive to honor him for this. Nevertheless we have to leave him on the chart (albeit at the end of tier 3) because they will be watching and taking the movie seriously since it's a) a bit hit and b) a musician biopic which is arguably their all time favourite subgenre of movies.
The big addition to the chart, in tier 2 currently, is Ke Huy Quan for his comeback role in Everything Everywhere All At Once after his brief childhood stardom in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies. We hope A24 launches a healthy campaign for the film in all categories since it deserves it. Nevertheless it would take quite a campaign since voters ALWAYS resist acting work in genre films. We've never understood that because it's not like it's easier to do genre acting well.
Will Quan's story and performance be enough or will the Academy's longstanding resistance to Asian actors AND "silly" films block the appeal? We suspect that Michelle Yeoh is the only real bet for awards glory but it would be nice if Quan and Curtis could get some attention along the way.
Two actors emerged from Cannes as real possibilities here. There were rave reviews for Sir Anthony Hopkins grandfather role in Armageddon Time so we've moved into the top five for now because... why not? The wealth/fame satire Triangle of Sadness was the top winner at Cannes so if the Academy's acting branch responds to it we could see Woody Harrelson get an awards run for playing the captain of the messy luxury cruise. Voters do like him; 2 of his 3 Oscar nominations were for movies that were not Best Picture nominees.
How are you feeling about these two races?