By: Abe Friedtanzer, Chris James, Cláudio Alves, and Nathaniel Rogers
We’ve come to the end of Team Experience’s Emmy Awards predictions. As we discussed the past two days, the Drama and Comedy categories can often default to past nominees. With the Limited Series and TV Movie categories, nominating panels are dealing with blank slates each year. Over the past ten years, the concept of a Limited Series has gone from being a less-popular oddity to a popular way to tell the buzziest of stories. Just this year, we saw three different ripped from the headline tech shows across three streamers. It doesn’t have to be all dramas or true stories. Mike White used cringe comedy to create one of the most memorable pieces of TV this year with The White Lotus. There are no shortage of great programs to nominate, even if the number of slots may be less than its Drama and Comedy counterparts. Nominations for the 74th annual Emmy Awards will be announced at 8:30am on Tuesday, July 12th by Melissa Fumero and JB Smoove.
Some overall thoughts and Predictions from Team Experience predicts after the jump...
Abe: I don’t think there’s ever been a slate this competitive before, and it will all boil down to how much critical praise equals Emmy love. For instance, are Inventing Anna and Pam & Tommy Emmy fare, or not? This will likely be a battle between Dopesick and The White Lotus, but it’s also possible that The Offer could be well-received or that any of the many shows in contention could bump some of the expected stronger players. Also, though we’re not including those categories here, the films in contention for Best TV Movie could finally break through in the acting categories for the first time in a few years.
Chris: Despite the nominees being different year after year for Limited Series categories (by design), unoriginality exists in this branch too. It’s not that different from a problem that plagues the Academy more and more each year. Voters tend to only watch a few limited series and nominate them down the line for all categories. In fact, the supporting categories are usually only dominated by three or four programs. The main question for prognosticators is, “what shows will Emmys love most?” I think they’ll love The White Lotus and Dopesick in particular, while Maid and The Dropout could be dark horse winners if they overperform in crowded supporting categories. While there may be fan bases for other limited series, such as Gaslit or The Offer, I don’t think we’ll get lone nominees from them. I’m sad that The Dropout overshadowed WeCrashed, which I felt had stronger performances and a more consistent sense of outlandish tone. Still, I’m very excited to see Dopesick and The White Lotus to dominate, as both are terrific.
Cláudio: Every year, the Emmys feel more overstuffed despite the plethora of categories available. This is especially true of the limited series races, as more and more of these projects flood the season. Sometimes, there are so many that it feels like none of them has space to breathe and find its audience, the maximum potential for popularity. Moreover, the TV Academy seems to be following the vices of its theatrical brethren, embracing biopics and real-life stories with increasing mania. I'm trying to be optimistic with some of my predictions, but maybe that's a mistake. In other news, it'll be interesting to see if the Emmys embrace TV movies born out of series or if they prefer more eminently cinematic projects that landed here through matters of distribution rather than artistic intent. Finally, how is The White Lotus eligible here if there's already a second season in the works? The Emmys' ever-changing eligibility rules will forever confound me.
Nathaniel: Are The White Lotus and Dopesick still the frontrunners to win Limited Series? One of the curious things about this Emmy season is that the glut of last minute contenders does not appear to be helping them the way recency bias usually helps Oscar contenders; The stuff that premiered in 2021 still has more buzz! Of course we won't know until the nominations if this is a false perception or not. The most nail-biting "Limited Series" category is Best Actress. There are multiple award winning actresses in the running as well as a huge number of famous celebrities playing famous celebrities (awards voters love that) but there won't be room for all of them... or even half of them! Hoping against all odds that Michelle Pfeiffer places for The First Lady since it's the best work she's done in about 20 years. But the odds are unfortunately against her given the response to the series overall (despite her rave reviews) and the glut of former Oscar, SAG, Globe, and Emmy winners in the mix (Pfeiffer is a previous nominee for every major mainstream screen acting award, but she's never won any of them. Sigh).
NOTE: One thing to keep in mind in this category is the number of nominees allowed in each category. Due to less submissions, some Limited Series acting categories will have less nominees than their Drama and Comedy counterparts. See the breakdown below and more information here.
0 to 7 nominees in categories with 0 to 7 submissions through a different voting process
2 nominees in categories with 8 to 11 submissions
3 nominees in categories with 12 to 15 submissions
4 nominees in categories with 16 to 19 submissions
5 nominees in categories with 20 to 80 submissions
6 nominees in categories with 81 to 160 submissions
7 nominees in category with 161 to 240 submissions
8 nominees in categories with at least 241 submissions
Now onto the predictions:
There were 61 submissions, so the nominee total is only five this year.
Unanimous Choices
Dopesick (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Maid (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
The Staircase (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
The White Lotus (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Quite Probable
The Dropout (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Lone Votes of Faith
Under the Banner of Heaven (Abe)
There were 48 submissions, so the nominee total is only five this year.
Unanimous Choices
The Survivor (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
The Fallout (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Quite Probable
Ray Donovan: The Movie (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Split Decision
Chip ‘n’ Dale: Rescue Rangers (Abe, Cláudio)
Fresh (Abe, Chris)
Lone Votes of Faith
The Sky is Everywhere (Nathaniel)
There were 92 submissions, so the nominee total is six this year.
Unanimous Choices
Amanda Seyfried - The Dropout (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Julia Garner - Inventing Anna (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Lily James - Pam and Tommy (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Quite Probable
Jessica Chastain - Scenes from a Marriage (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)
Margaret Qualley - Maid (Abe, Chris, Nathaniel)
Split Decision
Julia Roberts - Gaslit (Chris, Nathaniel)
Lone Votes of Faith
Jessica Beil - Candy (Abe)
Toni Collette - The Staircase (Nathaniel)
Claire Foy - A Very British Scandal (Cláudio)
Michelle Pfeiffer - The First Lady (Cláudio)
There were 64 submissions, so the nominee total is only five this year.
Unanimous Choices
Colin Firth - The Staircase (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Andrew Garfield - Under the Banner of Heaven (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Michael Keaton - Dopesick (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Quite Probable
Ben Foster - The Survivor (Abe, Chris, Nathaniel)
Oscar Issac - Scenes from a Marriage (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)
Split Decision
Samuel L. Jackson - The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey (Cláudio, Nathaniel)
There were 183 submissions, so the nominee total is only seven this year.
Unanimous Choices
Jennifer Coolidge - The White Lotus (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Kaitlyn Dever - Dopesick (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Andie MacDowell - Maid (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Quite Probable
Connie Britton - The White Lotus (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)
Laurie Metcalf - The Dropout (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Split Decision
Juliette Binoche - The Staircase (Abe, Cláudio)
Alexandra Daddario - The White Lotus (Chris, Nathaniel)
Daisy Edgar-Jones - Under the Banner of Heaven (Abe, Cláudio)
Lone Votes of Faith
Rosario Dawson - Dopesick (Nathaniel)
Anika Noni Rose - Maid (Nathaniel)
Juno Temple - The Offer (Abe)
Mare Winningham - Dopesick (Chris)
There were 232 submissions, so the nominee total is only seven this year.
Unanimous Choices
Naveen Andrews - The Dropout (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Murray Bartlett - The White Lotus (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Quite Probable
Steve Zahn - The White Lotus (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)
Split Decision
O-T Fagbenle - The First Lady (Abe, Cláudio)
Matthew Goode - The Offer (Abe, Nathaniel)
William H. Macy - The Dropout (Chris, Cláudio)
Peter Sarsgaard - Dopesick (Chris, Cláudio)
Michel Stuhlbarg - Dopesick (Cláudio, Nathaniel)
Lone Votes of Faith
Gil Birmingham - Under the Banner of Heaven (Nathaniel)
Jake Lacy - The White Lotus (Chris)
Burn Gorman - The Offer (Abe)
Will Poulter - Dopesick (Nathaniel)
Nick Robinson - Maid (Chris)
Shea Whigham - Gaslit (Abe)
Sam Worthington - Under the Banner of Heaven (Nathaniel)
Who do you think will be nominated for the Limited Series & TV Movie Emmys? Which performers or shows do you wish were getting more attention? Let us know in the comments below.