Final Emmy Predictions: Drama Series and Acting Categories

By: Chris James, Abe Friedtanzer, Cláudio Alves, and Nathaniel Rogers

Can Succession win a second Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series this year?

The Drama field at the Emmys is ripe for change. With most of last year's big contenders out of the running due to timing (The Handmaid's Tale and The Crown did not air new episodes this year) or shows ending (Lovecraft Country, Pose), there is plenty of room for newbies. The main question is, will past Emmy juggernauts, like Succession and Better Call Saul, return in full force or will new shows, like Squid Game and Severance, fill the void.? Over the next couple of days, Team Experience will also be providing predictions for the comedy and limited series categories as well. Nominations for the 74th annual Emmy Awards will be announced at 8:30am on Tuesday, July 12th by Melissa Fumero and JB Smoove.

Find out who Team Experience predicts will be nominated for the Drama categories after the jump...

First, some overall thoughts from the team.

Abe: Even though only two shows from last year’s Drama Series list are eligible again, there are five high-profile series back after taking a season off. While it’s likely to be a battle between defending champion Succession and new sensation Squid Game in most of the categories, watch out for another new show like Severance that might be able to upset and score big. It’s also hard to know how well returning shows like Stranger Things and Killing Eve will perform, and whether Emmy validation will match fan enthusiasm. And then there’s Better Call Saul, which may still underperform ahead of its final round of episodes, which premiere the day before nominations and will be eligible for next year’s awards. I’m not predicting it in any major categories, but I would be absolutely delighted if Loki got some much-deserved recognition.

Chris: The Emmys seem to love less shows every year. That’s what makes this year particularly interesting. Last year was dominated by The Handmaid’s Tale and The Crown, both of which are not eligible this year. Based on experience, the Emmys build out their categories by nominating more and more people from shows they are already watching. So what will have four or more acting nominations? Succession seems like the most appropriate answer. However, Stranger Things is one of the obsessions that is most hot at the time of voting. They might also catch the actress-sexual bug and nominate many of the actresses from Yellowjackets.

Cláudio : One of my big questions this year is how the changing tides of ubiquity will affect the voting, especially regarding recency bias. For instance, the Stranger Things' split season meant that the vote was happening between volumes when the expectation was at its peak. Will voters go for it with even more intensity than before, or will less juvenile prestige take the lead? Then, there's the matter of repeated favorites and how they don't leave space for new names to arise - Best Actor could be full of beautiful surprises, or it'll just be more of the same with a couple of variations. I tend to hope for variety but expect the opposite.

Nathaniel: Among first season shows it's inevitable that Squid Games lands in a big way given its SAG wins and immense ratings. But the two most interesting series to watch in terms of how they might play with voters are Showtime's Yellowjackets and Apple TV's Severance. It's easy to see different scenarios where they overperform or underperform. I'm guessing a split where Severance overperforms and Yellowjackets slightly underperforms (Lynskey only for the acting races) though I think both will easily land in the top category, despite all the competition from returning shows. I'm even predicting Severance's Adam Scott for a lead actor nomination despite the formidable competition and so few pundits actually risking that call. To include him it was either ditching Odenkirk or Brown, both of whom are default nominees. Now watch it be someone unexpected who gets the boot!

Netflix's Ozark contends for its final season. Is fourth time the charm for the series?

Outstanding Drama Series (8 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

• Better Call Saul (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Ozark (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Severance (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Squid Games (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Succession (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• This is Us (Abe, Chris, Nathaniel)

• Stranger Things (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)

• Yellowjackets (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Split Decision

• Yellowstone (Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Lone Vote of Faith

• Bridgerton (Abe)

• Euphoria (Cláudio)

Zendaya's Emmy win for "Euphoria" in 2020 was one of the most memorable recent Emmy moments. Can she repeat again this year?

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series (6 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

• Laura Linney - Ozark (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Melanie Lynskey - Yellowjackets (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Zendaya - Euphoria (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Jennifer Aniston - The Morning Show (Abe, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Mandy Moore - This Is Us (Abe, Chris, Nathaniel)

Split Decisions

• Jodie Comer - Killing Eve (Abe, Chris)

• Kelly Reilly -  Yellowstone (Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Lone Votes of Faith

• Simone Ashley - Bridgerton (Cláudio)

• Juliette Lewis - Yellowjackets (Chris) 

"Squid Game" was one of the biggest sensations of the season. Can lead star Lee Jun-Jae add an Emmy next to his SAG Award for the series?

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series (6 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

• Jason Bateman - Ozark (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Lee Jun-Jae - Squid Game (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel) 

• Jeremy Strong - Succession (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Sterling K. Brown - This Is Us (Abe, Chris, Nathaniel)
  
  

• Brian Cox - Succession (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)

Split Decisions

• Bob Odenkirk - Better Call Saul (Abe, Cláudio)

• Adam Scott - Severance (Chris, Nathaniel)

• Kevin Costner - Yellowstone (Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Lone Votes

• none

If she wins, this would be Julia Garner's third Emmy for the role of Ruth Langmore in "Ozark."

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series (8 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

• Patricia Arquette - Severance (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Julia Garner - Ozark (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Jung Ho-yeon - Squid Game (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• J. Smith-Cameron - Succession (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Sarah Snook - Succession (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Sadie Sink - Stranger Things (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Sydney Sweeney - Euphoria (Abe, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Split Decisions

• Christina Ricci - Yellowjackets (Abe, Chris)

• Millie Bobby Brown - Stranger Things (Chris, Cláudio)

Lone Votes

• Juliana Marguiles - The Morning Show (Nathaniel)

• Chrissy Metz - This is Us (Abe)

How many "Succession" men will get into Supporting Actor? We predict two for sure, with two more waiting in the wings.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series (8 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

• Kieran Culkin - Succession (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Giancarlo Esposito - Better Call Saul (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Matthew Macfadyen - Succession (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• John Turturro - Severance (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Nicholas Braun - Succession (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Billy Crudup - The Morning Show (Abe, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Oh Young-soo - Squid Game (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)

Split Decision

• Chris Sullivan - This Is Us (Abe, Chris)

Lone Votes of Faith

• Jonathan Banks - Better Call Saul (Nathaniel)

• Gil Birmingham - Yellowstone (Nathaniel)

• David Harbour - Stranger Things (Cláudio)

• Patrick Fabian - Better Call Saul (Abe)

• Alan Ruck - Succession (Chris)

Who do you think will be nominated for Drama Emmys? Which performers or shows do you wish were getting more attention? 

Comments

[Lucky]

Sorry if this is an unpopular take but isn't Patricia Arquette, um, bad in Severance?

[NATHANIEL R]

Lucky -- wow. I uh... dont know what to say to that. I think she's amazing on the show.

[jules]

I think everyone is great in Severance - I started watching the show early on because I am a fan of all the bold-faced names in the cast. But I wish Britt Lower and Zach Cherry were getting more attention for the series. They really make the show for me. If they were more famous, they would easily be considered shoo-ins for nominations.

[Corey Eubanks]

My Emmy predictions for drama supporting actress:
Sarah Snook
Sydney Sweeney
Sadie Sink
Sharon Stone
Susan Sarandon
Sarah Silverman
Sonia Sotomayor

[forever1267]

They nailed the landing on "This Is Us". I hope Emmy remembers one last time.

[Lucky]

NathanielR -- woops. I don't know. She's certainly doing something, but it just doesn't work for me. It feels like overacting but more importantly, I never know how much her character knows or what she wants - not in a good way but in a confusing way that doesn't align with the writing (this was more evident in the finale).

Just my opinion, I don't really know what most people think of her in the show.

[Ryan T.]

I think you guys might be underestimating Better Call Saul slightly. There was tons of industry/fan support for Odenkirk after his heart attack and there's been a HUGE push for Rhea Seehorn from their team and critics (granted that didn't work last season but hope springs eternal). All that and it's the "final" season (though they've split it in half so this team WILL get another chance next year) so at east story-wise, everything's crescendoing.

Though I will acknowledge the insane amount of competition and it's not as if they've been dominant at the Emmys like their predecessor Breaking Bad.

[Duncan]

Considering how things went with Handmaid's and The Crown last year hogging 11/16 supporting slots between them, I think it's smart to anticipate a few shows to get a LOT of noms there. Anticipating that...

Succession will probably easily get Culkin/Macfadyen/Braun/Ruck/Snook/Smith-Cameron, and could honestly even get Justine Lupe if they're especially lazy.

If they go overboard on Squid Game as a Hot New Thing + Diversity Champion, then we could get Yeong-su, Hae-soo and Tripathi all in Supporting Actor, and Ho-yeon & Joo-ryoung in Supporting Actress.

If they like the maximalist DRAMA acting of Euphoria, I could see them getting Sweeney, Schafer, Apatow and Demie all in Supporting Actress, and Angus Cloud is a quiet dark horse in Supporting Actor.

If the Diet-Sorkin manic dialogue of The Morning Show remains popular with actors despite being... absolutely awful, then we could get Crudup, Carell and Duplass all in Supporting Actor, plus Margulies in Supporting Actress.

And if Stranger Things premiered at the perfect time, then beyond past nominees Harbour and Millie Bobby Brown, we could get Sadie Sink or even Maya Hawke in Supporting Actress, and if they're really feeling it maybe even Joe Keery or Joseph Quinn in Supporting Actor.

Some of these might seem ridiculous, but considering last year we had Max Minghella for The Handmaid's Tale and Emerald Fennell for The Crown clearly getting in by virtue of the unlimited ballot favouring a few select shows, I think any of this is genuinely possible.

[Pam]

@Duncan "Diet-Sorkin manic dialogue" is my favorite thing I've read today. Thanks for the lols.

The Drama category seems slated for a show-down only between Saul/Severance/Succession/Squid Game and maybe Yellowstone/Yellowjackets. My favorite show, Pachinko, is not in any of the top 6 predictions on other entertainment sites.

Other underseen favorites: Slow Horses, Reacher, The Good Fight (ugh, this would be a top contender, I think, if anyone actually had access to Paramount+. Christine Baranski has been consistently awesome for years now!), The Sinner, Evil, Tehran.

[Joe G.]

I'd love to see Margulies get in. She was surprisingly grounded, but still fit into the crazy world of the Morning Show. I also think Reese is a stronger contender than she was last time, even if she doesn't get in.

I would love to see Evil get a series nom, and Baranski get a nomination for the Good Fight. The Kings are amazing.

Also, surprised to see The Gilded Age missing. It's not amazing TV, but it was a hit for HBO and I could see Carrie Coon and Baranski sneaking in.