Final Emmy Predictions: Comedy Series and Acting Categories

By: Abe Friedtanzer, Chris James, Cláudio Alves, Nathaniel Rogers

Can "Ted Lasso" continue its winning streak at the Emmys? Will it also dominate the Supporting Actor category again with four nominees?

The Emmys tendency to nominate old favorites may come back to bite them. As noted previously, 14 previous nominees for Outstanding Comedy Series are vying for slots again this year. With only eight slots, it is impossible for them all to make it. Complicating matters more are buzzy new series, such as Peacemaker, Julia, Abbott Elementary, Ghosts, Only Murders in the Building, I Love That For You and Our Flag Means Death, among others. It doesn’t get any easier when moving down to the acting categories, particularly the stacked fields for Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress. Lots of Lone Votes of Faith among Team Experience. Tomorrow we will round out our Emmy predictions with the Limited Series categories. Nominations for the 74th annual Emmy Awards will be announced at 8:30am on Tuesday, July 12th by Melissa Fumero and JB Smoove.

Find out who Team Experience predicts will be nominated for the Comedy categories after the jump...

First, some overall thoughts from the team.

Abe: Not only are seven of last year’s Comedy Series nominees eligible again, there are just as many shows that were nominated the last time they aired that are back in contention. It’s hard to know what will be left out, with Atlanta and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel potentially vulnerable and other series complete question marks, like What We Do in the Shadows, Russian Doll, and The Flight Attendant. I’m also banking on Peacemaker showing up in some surprising places, and even Florence Pugh from Hawkeye netting a nomination. It’s sad to me to think that what may have been the best comedy of the past season, The Great, might be completely ignored, but I think we’re in for some major shocks no matter what since these categories are simply too crowded.

Chris: There is no shortage of great comedies this year for the Emmys to choose from, both from old favorites and new stars. Despite an influx of old competitors, I think the heat off of new shows like Only Murders in the Building and Abbott Elementary will best the newest seasons of Barry, Atlanta and even previous winner The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. I would love it if shows like The Other Two and The Righteous Gemstones, which got much better in season two, would be properly rewarded. Yet, tight competition means we are headed for a crop of famous faces and previous nominees. The one shocker I’m predicting… Taika Waititi in Our Flag Means Death. The HBO Max show was a hit and his star is on the rise. He may get a fair amount of name checking, which matters at the Emmys.

Cláudio: Even more so than in the drama races, the comedy categories illuminate the everlasting tension between the Emmys' need to acknowledge the new while holding on to old favorites. There are many returning nominees to consider, including beloved champions and some shows/performances for whom this is the last shot at Emmy glory – think Insecure and a cadre of SNL players. At the same time, shows like Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building feel bound to make a splash, diversifying the lineups. Other, less locked possibilities include the indie darling Reservation Dogs and Our Flag Means Death, whose fandom is rather intense. Honestly, I am fascinated by many of these races, even beyond that tension between new shows and continuing ones. As Barry becomes less and less comedic, how will the Academy react? Will DeBose's Oscar success translate to some television honors? Can Luke Kirby score in a new category after winning the Guest Actor prize for this same character? I think we're bound for some surprises.

Nathaniel: In terms of Comedy I'm preparing for the worst. i.e. more of the same. It's so hard to get past Emmy voters lazy "same as last time!" voting. Even in the new TV landscape where we semi-regularly get season off breaks from shows, voters tend to return to their favs regardless of individual worthiness per season. So here's to lost causes! Like Showtime's amazing I Love That For You which has a grand total of zero amounts of buzz despite several worthy elements, especially in the acting departments. Same goes for The Other Two (and both shows have Molly Shannon doing Emmy-worthy work and to think she'll come up doubly blank!) and to a lesser extent HBO's lovely funny and oddly stirring Somebody Somewhere.  My greatest hope after its little breakthrough at last years Emmys is for a huge haul for What We Do in the Shadows -- especially in the acting categories -- but, alas, I'm not predicting it. 

P.S. Who can we talk to about getting Saturday Night Live performers out of these acting categories and back where they belong for sketch variety type prizes so that we have room for more of the incredible continuous performances TV acting prizes were designed for?

Now onto the predictions

Among new series, "Abbot Elementary" and "Only Murders in the Building" are unanimously predicted to crack the Outstanding Comedy Series lineup.Outstanding Comedy Series (8 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

• Abbott Elementary (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Barry (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Hacks (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Only Murders in the Building (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Ted Lasso (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Split Decision

• What We Do in the Shadows (Abe, Chris) 

Lone Vote of Faith

• Atlanta (Cláudio)

• Curb Your Enthusiasm (Nathaniel)

• The Great (Nathaniel)

• Insecure (Chris)

• Peacemaker (Abe)

• Reservation Dogs (Cláudio)

Jean Smart continues to dazzle in season two of "Hacks," and she's looking to add another Emmy to her mantle.Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series (6 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

• Rachel Brosnahan - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Quinta Brunson - Abbott Elementary (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Jean Smart - Hacks (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Issa Rae - Insecure (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)

Split Decision

• Kaley Cuoco - The Flight Attendant (Abe, Chris)

• Selena Gomez - Only Murders in the Building (Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Tracee Ellis Ross - Black-ish (Abe, Nathaniel)

Lone Vote of Faith

• Sarah Lancashire - Julia (Nathaniel)

• Sandra Oh - The Chair (Cláudio)

• Lily Tomlin - Grace and Frankie (Chris)

Team Experience predicts unanimously that both Steve Martin and Martin Short will be nominated for the first season of "Only Murders in the Building."Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series (6 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

• Bill Hader - Barry (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Steve Martin - Only Murders in the Building (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Martin Short - Only Murders in the Building (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Jason Sudeikis - Ted Lasso (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Anthony Anderson - black-ish (Abe, Chris, Nathaniel)

• Donald Glover - Atlanta (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)

Lone Vote of Faith

• Don Cheadle - Black Monday (Cláudio)

• Nicholas Hoult - The Great (Nathaniel)

Despite a long hiatus, we all expect Sarah Goldberg to return to the Emmys for her role in "Barry" season three.Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Unanimous Choices

• Hannah Einbender - Hacks (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Sara Goldberg - Barry (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Kate McKinnon - Saturday Night Live (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Hannah Waddingham - Ted Lasso (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Juno Temple - Ted Lasso (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Split Decision

• Alex Borstein - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Chris, Cláudio)

• Aidy Bryant - Saturday Night Live (Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Janelle James - Abbott Elementary (Chris, Nathaniel)

Lone Vote of Faith

• Zazie Beetz - Atlanta (Abe)

• Danielle Brooks - Peacemaker (Abe)

• Ariana DeBose - Schmigadoon! (Cláudio)

• Yvonne Orji - Insecure (Chris)

• Florence Pugh - Hawkeye (Abe)

• Sheryl Lee Ralph - Abbott Elementary (Nathaniel)

• Meg Stalter - Hacks (Abe)

"Fire Island" star Bowen Yang looks to earn his second consecutive Emmy nomination for his work on "Saturday Night Live."Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Unanimous Choices

• Anthony Carrigan - Barry (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Brett Goldstein - Ted Lasso (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Henry Winkler - Barry (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Bowen Yang - Saturday Night Live (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Tony Shalhoub - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Split Decision

• Luke Kirby - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Chris, Cláudio)

• Kenan Thompson - Saturday Night Live (Chris, Nathaniel)

Lone Vote of Faith

• Carl Clemens-Hopkins - Hacks (Cláudio)

• Paul W. Downs - Hacks (Abe)

• Brian Tyree Henry - Atlanta (Abe)

• Brandon Scott Jones - Ghosts (Abe)

• Nick Mohammed - Ted Lasso (Cláudio)

• David Hyde Pierce - Julia (Nathaniel)

• Stephen Root - Barry (Nathaniel)

• Freddie Stroma - Peacemaker (Abe)

• Taika Waititi - Our Flag Means Death (Chris)

Who do you think will be nominated for Comedy Emmys? Which performers or shows do you wish were getting more attention? Let us know in the comments below.

Comments

[StephenM]

I really like how these predictions are presented in tiers. They actually kind of match my confidence levels in a lot of cases.

I really hope for a Martin Short nomination. He always seems like such a nice, humble guy. I'm also totally fine with a 5th Emmy for Jean Smart. It's interesting how long it took her to receive her first nod, and what a regular she's become since.

[Corey Eubanks]

I have no idea how the classify BARRY as a comedy any more. There is like one comic moment per episode. The show has become excessively brutal, more so than Breaking Bad in its darkest moments. At this rate, next season will just be a legit snuff film. Loved S1&2, but I think I’m out now. Too many other shows to watch.

[Finbar McBride]

I wholeheartedly acknowledge your superior skills as prognosticators. However I can only begrudgingly accept that previous Emmy winner Sarah Jessica Parker will not be nominated for her latest iteration as Carrie Bradshaw. I was enthralled with Parker as she quietly explored Carrie’s grief following the death of her husband. Every moment felt exceedingly true. It was no surprise to me when And Just Like That won stellar ratings, the subscription service boasted were the highest for a series in its history.

[jules]

I hope Selena Gomez makes it in. Of course Martin and Short are geniuses and will deservingly get nominated, but the show would not work if Selena were not a very good deadpan partner to them.

I've been trying to watch Barry and I think I may abandon it. I like Bill Hader a lot, but the show is just too tasking for me, and there's too much else on my watchlist. I expect something sillier when I sit down for a half-hour comedy.

[David]

I feel like the love for Ted Lasso is partially due to the fact that it premiered when the world was struggling through the early days of Covid and we needed something really light to make us feel ok about the doom. Now that time has passed, it feels like a decent show but not really deserving of the heaps of nominations it's bound to get.

[Ryan T.]

It's going to be a bloodbath regardless. There's just TOO MANY shows and performances that were previously nominated that are vying for spots. Even if the Emmys don't pick something bad or lazy (which, it's the Emmys, so they DEFINITELY will), there's still going to be so many deserving shows/actors that won't be nominated.

My one "wish" is nothing for black-ish. It was a fine show, but the final season was probably its worst. And it's not as if there's lacking for broadcast network options (Abbott Elementary and Ghosts are RIGHT there being awesome and new).

[Score and Cinematography]

He’s got fierce competition with Lasso love, Hader returning and the Martin/Short double dip but really hoping for Nicholas Hoult to land. He played twins (sort of) - Emmys love that! ; )

[Pam]

So much good TV, but we know Emmy voters are super lazy, and I will undoubtedly be very disappointed on Tuesday. Also, as Corey above mentions, the line between Comedy and Drama is very blurry. I often laugh out loud at SUCCESSION, and only smile when Hank is onscreen during BARRY. I will be thrilled if any of the following happens:

Lancashire (Julia) - delightful

Fanning and Hoult (The Great) - this show would not work without the talents of these two

Einbinder (Hacks) - category fraud for sure, but she deserves an Emmy

Kirby (Maisel) - fantastic, nuanced performance; love his chemistry with Brosnahan

Cuoco and Mamet (The Flight Attendant) - Cuoco showed wide range and clear dramatic chops this season; Mamet actually lights up the screen when she's on

Brunson and Ralph (Abbott Elementary) - Brunson for writer, best show; Ralph is the heart and soul

Gomez (Only Murders) - my kids were obsessed with her in Wizards of Waverly Place, she is all grown up and completely holds her own between Short and Martin

Carrington (Barry) - Hank is one of the best characters in TV history played brilliantly by Carrington

P.S. Hailee Steinfeld needs some attention for her stellar work in HAWKEYE, DICKINSON, and voice acting in ARCANE

Shows that need more love from the general public: MINX, RESERVATION DOGS, THE GREAT, WE ARE LADY PARTS, JULIA, SEARCH PARTY, THE AFTER PARTY, BETTER THINGS, DICKINSON

[NATHANIEL R]

Pam -- agreed that so many more shows needs attention. Can't believe i forgot about MINX for example in my "lost causes" tribute. Minx was so good!

[Joe G.]

I'm not sold on Quinta Brunson making it in, but she'll probably be there. I'm don't think Selena Gomez will be though. It's easier to see Issa Rae, Tracee Ellis Ross, and even Lily Tomlin making it in before her.

If Anthony Anderson makes it in, he'll join the club of actors nominated for every season of their show.

I hope Sheryl Lee Ralph make it in. This would be a nice way to honor both her work and her career.

I do think there's a a possibility voters skip over Maisel almost entirely (maybe just Shaloub). Or they just give it way too many nominations. Hard to tell with that one, but season 4 was very hit and miss writing wise.