Emmys: Will Returning Shows Dominate Drama & Comedy Categories?

By Christopher James

Can both of last year's Emmy winners prevail in much more competitive conditions?

When it comes to the Emmys, voters tend to stick with what they know. Once a show gets nominated for Outstanding Series, it will forever be on the Emmys radar and a threat to repeat its nomination. Yes, some shows drop off but prevailing wisdom says that, when filling out a prediction sheet for the Emmys, always start with what was nominated previously before adding in new shows.

However this year that may prove to be a somewhat difficult predictive approach. Due to the pandemic, some shows were not eligible each of the past two years, forcing the Emmys to choose new favourites to nominate. Now, most of their former favourites have aired new seasons, including some programs that had laid dormant for many seasons. What we have, then, is a returning show bottleneck...

Seven previous nominees are eligible for Drama Series, while a whopping 14 previous nominees are eligible for Comedy Series. Who will pull through in the end? Let’s take a look at the contenders.

PREVIOUS DRAMA SERIES NOMINEES

• Better Call Saul (AMC)

• Bridgerton (Netflix)

• Killing Eve (BBC America)

• Ozark (Netflix)

• Stranger Things (Netflix)

• Succession (HBO)

• This Is Us (NBC)

PREVIOUS COMEDY SERIES NOMINEES

• Atlanta (FX)

• Barry (HBO)

• Black-ish (ABC)

• Cobra Kai (Netflix)

• Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)

• Emily in Paris (Netflix)

• The Flight Attendant (HBO)

• Hacks (HBO)

• Insecure (HBO)

• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)

• PEN15 (Hulu)

• Russian Doll (Netflix)

• Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

• What We Do In The Shadows (FX)

Many of the returning Drama Series shows stand good chances of repeating. Better Call Saul, Ozark and This Is Us are all contending for their final seasons. Fans will likely want to give them a strong goodbye. Granted, Better Call Saul is splitting its final season in two parts, so it will have one more year to compete with the final batch of episodes released in July (which won't be eligible for another year). Few shows are as talked about as Succession, making it the frontrunner for the win and assured of another Drama Series nomination. The other three shows have different degrees of vulnerability. Bridgerton season two surely has its fans, but the less sexy season two may have lost a few voters who championed it for season one. No one has seen Stranger Things season four, as it releases on May 22. However, each previous season has earned a Drama Series nomination, so we should assume it will repeat. Finally, the fourth season of Killing Eve received a mixed response and feels most likely to drop. Still, the third season also wasn’t well received by critics but still managed a Drama Series nomination, so it’s possible the show could pull this off.

With 14 returning shows, Outstanding Comedy Series will be a bloodbath. Last year’s winner Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) should still be safe, even if the second season alienated some fans of the runaway hit. Previous Emmy hits like Hacks (HBO MAX) and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video) should also feel comfortable. After that, it’s anyone’s game. Atlanta and Barry both return after a long hiatus and are hoping that the Emmy voters will pick back up where they left off. Both won major Emmys previously, but their latest seasons have received cooler reception and don’t seem to be as talked about. It’s possible that the Emmys will move on. In fact, now more than ever it will matter whether shows lived up to their initial promise, or if they have squandered their audience. FX’s What We Do In The Shadows continues to get funnier and funnier, which hopefully pays off with another nomination.  Similarly, HBO’s Insecure stuck the landing with its incredible final season. Meanwhile, the brilliant Pen15 (Hulu) had a comparably weaker final season, which could push it out of contention. Similarly, many felt Russian Doll (Netflix) season two didn’t live up to the inventiveness of the first’s Groundhog Day premise. Even last year’s hit The Flight Attendant seems less discussed in season two. Stalwarts Curb Your Enthusiasm and black-ish usually only factor in when there’s room, so they will likely drop off during this crowded year. Finally, a number of shows that snuck in during last year’s less competitive lineup will likely drop off. Cobra Kai and Emily in Paris have likely had their time in the Emmy sun, and won’t return this year.

Both "Only Murders in the Building" and "Squid Games" hope to make a play in the crowded series categories.

NEW AND RETURNING SERIES NOMINEES

• Outstanding Drama Series

  • 2021 - 3 First Time Nominees, 5 Returning Nominees

  • 2020 - 1 First Time Nominees, 7 Returning Nominees

  • 2019 - 5 First Time Nominees, 3 Returning Nominees

  • 2018 - 0 First Time Nominees, 7 Returning Nominees

  • 2017 - 5 First Time Nominees, 2 Returning Nominees

  • 2016 - 2 First Time Nominees, 5 Returning Nominees

  • 2015 - 1 First Time Nominees, 6 Returning Nominees

  • 2014 - 1 First Time Nominees, 5 Returning Nominees

  • 2013 - 1 First Time Nominees, 5 Returning Nominees

  • 2012 - 1 First Time Nominees, 5 Returning Nominees

• Outstanding Comedy Series

  • 2021 - 6 First Time Nominees, 2 Returning Nominees

  • 2020 - 4 First Time Nominees, 4 Returning Nominees

  • 2019 - 4 First Time Nominees, 3 Returning Nominees

  • 2018 - 3 First Time Nominees, 5 Returning Nominees

  • 2017 - 1 First Time Nominees, 6 Returning Nominees

  • 2016 - 2 First Time Nominees, 5 Returning Nominees

  • 2015 - 2 First Time Nominees, 5 Returning Nominees

  • 2014 - 2 First Time Nominees, 4 Returning Nominees

  • 2013 - 1 First Time Nominees, 5 Returning Nominees

  • 2012 - 2 First Time Nominees, 4 Returning Nominees

The pandemic caused many shows to sit out the 2020-2021 season. This left room for new shows to fill the vacancies. Leading up to last year, the Emmys were already nominating more new shows, likely due to the expanded number of nominees (now up to eight slots). From 2012 - 2016, there would never be more than two new shows cracking the series lineup. Drama Series was the first to really embrace new blood, with 2017 and 2019 each honoring five new shows to the lineup. Change was a little slower to Comedy Series. It wasn’t until 2018 that three new shows were able to crack the category. Since then, that number has only gone up.

So what new shows will hope to vanquish the previous nominees in these categories? For Drama, there will be at least one new nominee guaranteed for the eighth slot. The biggest hit and most likely nominee is Netflix’s Squid Game, an international juggernaut that ran away with all the major wins at the SAG Awards. If we consider that spot sewn up, then all other new shows will need to dethrone an incumbent, which is possible as three of them are vulnerable. Severance (Apple TV+) and Yellowjackets (Showtime) each command a pretty strong following and are bolstered by great reviews. After missing the nomination for season one, Euphoria hopes season two will do the trick, especially as Zendaya’s star is on the rise. One can’t forget that in order to be nominated, voters have to be watching the show. There are few shows as big as Yellowstone right now, ratings wise, and that popularity could make it a spoiler.

Meanwhile, the crowded Comedy Series category also has a slew of new shows. Only Murders in the Building is a favorite for a nomination, thanks to its popularity, starry cast and awards run so far. We just recently talked about the greatness of some new network sitcoms and Abbott Elementary stands the best chance of representing network TV in the Comedy Series category. There are also fervent fans of Reservation Dogs (FX), The Afterparty (Apple TV+), The Other Two (HBO MAX) and Our Flag Means Death (HBO MAX) that could all factor in.

Which shows do you predict will be nominated for the Emmys? 

Comments

[Finbar McBride]

I suspect The Gilded Age is a stealth contender for Best Drama Series. The HBO period piece has high production values, the addictive writing of Julian Fellowes, and three fine actresses (Christine Baranski, Carrie Coon and Cynthia Nixon) working at the top of their game. The show grew by word of mouth (1M viewers for the premiere to 8.5M for the season’s final episode). This seems a natural fit for the voters who put Downton Abbey on the Best Series ballot for each year it was on the air.

[DK]

Two fixes that would immediately improve television awardage:

1. The Emmys have to choose a number of nominees per category and stick to it. I don’t care if it’s six (prefer five, always!) but it shouldn’t be 8 and they should get it on the record. If “ties” are causing problems, figure out a way to break ties. It’s not hard.

2. The Globes and SAG need to fix their supporting performance lunacy. HFPA needs to break “supporting on television” into three different categories. SAG needs to recognize supporting performers, period—how does a *union* appreciate “small parts” less than any other group?

[Joe G.]

I think there will be a lot of new blood on the Comedy side. In addition to Abbott and Only Murderers, I think it's easy to see Ted Lasso, Hacks, and Barry as the top contenders. After that I'd bet Maisel gets in, given that it's Amazon's only real contender. Then I'd guess whatever FX decides to prioritize, likely Atlanta, and Curb just edging out flight attendant (it's such an LA show that appeals to voters, specifically).

On the Drama side, it's easy to see Killing Eve and Stranger Things come up short. With Eve, especially, there are other places to support it. I also think Netflix has a ton to work with, and Stranger Things feels expendable. Bridgerton just feels like such a big Downton Abbey sized hit. But I think Netflix will want to prioritize getting Squid Game to be a major contender since they smell a win, so there's a world where it multiple netflix nominees fall.

I could see a Gilded Age or Morning Show shocker, but those networks have much stronger contenders.

[jules]

Pachinko should be getting nominated, but I don't know if it's widely seen.

I could also see The Gilded Age getting nominated, and given how the Oscars love Adam McKay, I could see support for Winning Time as well. Like Curb, it's a very LA-centric series, and while the accuracy of the series has been criticized in the media, some of the performances are fantastic (Quincy Isaiah and Solomon Hughes especially).

[Pam]

Top 5 Drama - will be nominated
Succession
Squid Game
Yellowjackets (I don't have the streamer this is on so I haven't seen it)
Severance
Better Call Saul

My Wish-List picks:
Succession
Pachinko
In My Skin
Better Call Saul
Reacher or Peacemaker (sorry, I freaking loved both of these silly shows)

Top 5 Comedy - will be nominated
Ted Lasso
Hacks
Abbott Elementary
Only Murders in the Building
Insecure

My Wish-List picks
Abbott Elementary
Only Murders in the Building
Better Things
Reservation Dogs
We are Lady Parts
(plus Ted Lasso)

[Andrew Carden]

Hasn't CURB made the cut for all of its seasons? Tough to fathom it missing, even in a chaotic year.

[NathanielB]

I guess everyone is just going to ignore past Outstanding Drama Series nominee Grey's Anatomy. It's "only" been 15 years since it was nominated there!

[Score and Cinematography]

I am madly in love with ALL CREATURES GREAT AND SMALL and don’t know why it isn’t a Downton Abbey sized hit. Drama is crowded but it would be one of my nominees for sure.

[Mary Boone]

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