by Nathaniel R
Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein in "Maestro" (Netflix)
As noted in Best Actor & Best Supporting Actor, we're pretending as if the strike will be resolved and movies will actually arrive later this year (because if we don't predictions will be nightmarishly impossible). So let's look at Best Picture and Best Director. What might the future hold for us in these two categories?
EARLY BIRD DIRECTORS
It's possible that we've already seen 60% of the Best Director list (Greta Gerwig, Chris Nolan, Celine Song) but that would be highly unusual. This isn't 1972 where the two biggest contenders (Cabaret & The Godfather) had already been popular for literally over a year when they dominated Oscar night. The Oscar formulas and awards season release patterns have calcified in the half century since then. The earth still orbits the sun at the same speed as it did decades earlier, but time (at least in pop culture) has sped up considerably; you're an "old" movie much quicker now...
"Past Lives" brilliant opening scene (A24)
Still, there's something to be said for early releases in Oscar season and the 'rest period' between release and campaigning does inarguably benefit some films. Will Barbenheimer still be a thing next winter or will the industry deem Barbie too "silly" for the industry's top awards given their historic aversion to comedy... even while admiring Greta Gerwig's historic accomplishment? It seems more likely that Oppenheimer -- which checks all Oscar boxes (including a weirdly under-awarded director) -- will survive until the nominees are read out.
Will the refractory period between successful release and campaign be a blessing to Past Lives? The jewel of the early summer is unusually modest (on its surface) in awards player terms but people will have a lot of time to realize how much they cherish it / how brilliant it is by the time they're voting. It could happen in big categories with the right campaign.
For now we're predicting that Oppenheimer and Past Lives will be in the final Picture/Director lineup while Barbie will miss both. The least anxiety-inducing unseen Best Picture calls (given that there are so many slots) are Scorsese's Killers of the Flowers Moon, Bradley Cooper's Bernstein biopic Maestro, Alexander Payne's dramedy The Holdovers, and the sci-fi sequel Dune Part Two. Still bigger goliaths have fallen if the reception wasn't warm when they did finally screen. (And yes it's possible that any of them could be delayed. People have been whispering that about Dune especially.)
Valid questions about all of the titles rush in...
"The Color Purple" (2023 version)
Will The Color Purple be relentlessly compared to the original ... Even if it is will that matter? And how many articles will each and every awards site do comparing the two films nomination tallies and what it means?
Will Saltburn be a sophomore slump for Emerald Fennell or proof that she's a major auteur?
Will A24 put all their weight behind Past Lives or will The Iron Claw make a splash at festivals and force them to
split or shift focus?
Will Poor Things be too bizarre for voters or just weird enough to delight newish Lanthimos stans?
Will Boys in the Boat or Ferrari prove irresistible "dad movies" or be so good that that sounds stupidly reductive in hindsight?
Will challenging international films like Anatomy of a Fall or The Zone of Interest be able to capitalize on critical fervor and crossover to US interest?
Which stealth contender will surprise everyone months from now?
What will make the media most angry about the eventual Best Director list?
Which movie will sail to a Best Picture nomination despite being hopelessly mediocre?
ETCETERA
Check out the Picture and Director charts and report back?
What other questions would you add to this exhausting list?