by Nathaniel R
"Dune Part Two" and "Barbie" both come from Warner Bros
No sooner had we entirely completed the first round of Oscar predictions than Warner Bros up and announced that Dune Part Two would be moving to 2024, March 15th to be exact. And we had to rearrange several charts. The delay for the sandy sci-fi sequel is surely due to the ongoing strikes and fears that Timothée and the other stars wouldn't be promoting the movie. [Aside to the AMPT: Just meet the actors and writers demands, already! You can't make movies without them and the asks are not unreasonable given how their wages have been dropping despite still mammoth earnings for entertaining. But it appears that when the only thing you understand is greed, little Oliver asking for slightly more gruel from your abundant pot is offensive!]
When it comes to the Oscar race this means there's far more room for other movies to benefit since the first installment of Denis Villeneuve's take on the classic sci-fantasy opera won a whopping six Oscars from fen nominations two years back. At first glance we think the film that benefits most is Barbie, which also happens to be from Warner Bros...
Everyone who has followed the Oscar intently for more than a few years comes to this realization: distributors that have too much of a good thing, often struggle presenting it all 'For Their Consideration'. Sometimes entirely achievable Oscar goals are abandoned for easier gets and sometimes whole films are shoved aside if it feels like the heat is slightly hotter elsewhere. Warner Bros was presumably going to be juggling the year's biggest zeitgeist hit Barbie (an initially improbable Oscar prospect which rapidly become a real contender), with an easy get for nominations if not wins (Dune Part Two) and a prestige musical adaptation of an Oscar nominated classic (The Color Purple). Now they only have to balance two giant contenders which will be much easier.
But aside from matters of distribution and campaigns, there's the matter of Oscar's habit of mixing the small with the big. Each year's nominated slate generally has a healthy mix of BIG films and small ones and Barbie and Dune are both very very big. Less for Dune presumably means more for Barbenheimer if you will.
The current Best Picture Prediction Chart.