Nick, Nathaniel, and Eric engage in a discussion about everybody's favorite Oscar category: Best Actress. For the record this conversation started the day of the Globes nominations so watch things narrow down as we speak!
Will a surprise SAG nomination rescue any underperformers?
ERIC: Nick and Nathaniel, I'm really excited about this volley because the Best Actress category is as always stacked, this year featuring at least a dozen ladies who stand a fairly legitimate shot at a nomination at this point. I thought it might be fun, before we get to the current leading contenders, to take a look at that back half of the possibilities to gauge your thoughts. Of the actresses that seem slightly less likely to nab a nomination this year...Kate Winslet, Pamela Anderson, Amy Adams, Tilda Swinton, Saoirse Ronan...do you see the winds changing in the weeks to come where any of them could gather enough momentum to move to the front of the pack?
I'm considering Jolie, Madison, Gascon, Moore, Kidman, Erivo, Torres, and Jean-Baptiste more ahead at this point, but comment as you may.
NATHANIEL: It does feel like quite a crowded, anything-could-happen* year. Take for example one from your column B: Saoirse Ronan and one from your column A: Angelina Jolie...
Aren't they really dealing with many of the same pros and cons? Both have Oscar history, both were pre-ordained major Best Actress dontenders by pundits for these projects a full year ago. Response to both films (as films) is muted which means they might have entered the "Best Actress only" realm of campaigning without a lot of support from other buzzy elements of their film. That's not a deal breaker for famous actresses of course, as history bears out, though it can definitely deflate a campaign that's running for supporting.
* in terms of 'anything could happen', that's not strictly true since the Golden Globe nominations were announced shortly after you posted that question. The industry, media, and critics groups all conspire each year to narrow the field quickly (sigh) so some of the 13 women you name-checked will shortly become extreme longshots rather than "hopefuls"
For the record the Globes chose like so:
Angelina Jolie as MARIA © Pablo Larraín
DRAMA: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here), Kate Winslet (Lee)
MUSICAL OR COMEDY: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Zendaya (Challengers)
These are fun lists and good performances, all, but because it's 12 people honored, there's little in the way of discernment as to "Best" since there were only really 14 or 15 people in the conversation to begin with. June Squibb (Thelma) who seemed like a reasonable Comedy Globe possibility if not Oscar contender, Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) and Marianne Jean Baptiste (Hard Truths) were the only discussed contenders who came up empty. This surely has more to do with which screeners are being watched than any individual performances. And with all of the restructuring of the Globes. Back in their days of more autonomy (for better and uh worse) one of the net positive things they did on the regular was that they would just ignore campaign wishes and often nominated leads campaigning as supporting in lead! So these lists would have been a lot more pundit-confusing had they thrown everyone for a loop with double lead nods for Wicked, The Room Next Door, and Emilia Perez. There would have been a lot more chaos as to who would have remained in the other slots.
But returning to your original question, I think the tide could turn for Amy Adams since the Academy has nominated her for a lot less than what she manages in Nightbitch. I also want to believe it could turn for Tilda (it's been so long since it happened for her but her filmography is so cool). I would have more faith in the tide turning for Pamela Anderson (since The Last Showgirl is such an easy, swift, and bittersweet sit) if it weren't for the presence of Demi Moore (The Substance) in the same race. Both actresses, fairly or unfairly, are in that very familiar campaign narrative territory of 'nobody ever thought they'd be a contender but LOOK AT WHAT THEY CAN DO! '
As for Column B, I am not yet convinced that Fernanda Torres (you didn't mention her but she did snag a Globe nod) is a real threat to the shortlist, mostly because it's always more difficult to pull off those foreign language nominations unless there are other mitigating factors (as in Gascon's case). A small part of me wonders if Cythia Erivo will pull a Margot Robbie/Barbie and be left out at the last minute despite the popularity of Wicked.
Mikey Madison as ANORA © Neon
NICK: Best Actress this year reminds of the 2016 season, where there’s so many women with a reasonable shot at a nomination that I’m having a hard time getting my feet under me for predictions. Anyone who gets Oscar’s lineup right following the Globe nominations is an actual wizard. I wouldn’t rule out Jean-Baptiste, and there’s always time for SAG or BAFTA to do throw out a very strange misdirection like Emily Blunt in Girl on the Train.
Of the five also-rans, I agree with Nathaniel that Adams feels like the most plausible contender. Marielle Heller’s actors have had a good track record to get nominated for her last few films, and sometimes an actor making good in their first real film in a while can coast on that narrative. In all honestly, I’ve been predicting Jolie for some time purely on Larrain’s success at getting his leading ladies nominated. Star power like hers can be a good standby in a crowded field. It feels like Amy and Angelina are “back” with their films in a way we can’t say for Kate Winslet or Saoirse Ronan. Adams is also fucking terrific in Nightbitch, which doesn’t always matter but can’t hurt. Tilda’s a complete wildcard to me - Almodóvar’s been on a good streak with the Academy recently, especially with his actors, but he and Swinton are so hit-and-miss with awards that I can’t make myself predict her.
The flip side of Eric’s question is who we think is locked in for a nomination. Hell, Is anyone locked in such a crowded field, or am I overhyping the crowdedness so bad I end up tricking myself? Mikey Madison (Anora) and Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) look safest to me. The popularity of their films and the different star-is-born trajectories seem undeniable. Gascon being the first openly trans performer to receive a major film nomination at the Globes is a historic recognition, and her inclusion at any other awards group would follow suit. That’s a fantastic narrative to hang your hat on, one that would be even more rewarding to me if I thought her performance or Emilia Perez itself deserved one iota of the awards heat they’re getting.
The biggest question for me is Demi Moore in The Substance, who’s doing some incredible work in a gross, nasty laugh of a film that’s been outperforming expectations left and right since Cannes. Six Globe nominations and a box office haul of $56+ million is astonishing for a dark comedy body horror about an actress tearing herself in two. I remember walking out of the theater in September and hoping the Makeup branch would have the decency to shortlist it, and look at it now! There was a surprising amount of chatter after the Globe nominations if Moore could go all the way for this. Do we think she’s getting in? Will this year’s Comedy/Musical Globe be the real queenmaker for Best Actress? Do any of the Drama girlies have a chance?
ERIC: I think Demi Moore is in for an Oscar nomination. Not a lock certainly, but I think she's winning the Globe, and that will be enough to get her into the final five. That said, I of course can also see a world where more conservative Oscar voters drop out of The Substance after the first 20 minutes or so, and many who certainly won't make it through the final act when it really goes slimy and bonkers. But at the moment, I think Demi's chances are solid.
Similarly, I think Film Twitter is overestimating Mikey Madison. At end of day, I think she'll make the cut, but Anora has a lot of elements that will turn off older Academy voters (sex clubs, nudity, early twentysomethings, etc.) and I think a win for her is highly unlikely. I admired Anora tremendously, but it is still very much a small indie movie and hasn't really broken through to the masses.
Nick, interesting that you think Madison and Gascon are the closest to a lock. Emilia Perez is incredibly divisive (I love it, sorry not sorry), and because Gascon is a newcomer, I could see her left off the list on Oscar morning, even if the film does well overall. It'll be interesting to see how Gascon is "received" over the next few weeks of televised awards.
Nighbitch has zero visibility at the moment, and I admire both of your belief that Amy Adams could surge into the final five. I guess it's a matter of getting people to see the film...a SAG nomination for Amy would really help seal the deal? Agreed with Nick that Amy seems “back” in a way Ronan and Winslet don’t.
Definitely “back” is Angelina Jolie. My social feeds have been jammed this last week with everyone praising the performance, which I also think is incredible and probably the best acting Jolie has ever done. And I think the film will get nominations in Cinematography (which is exquisite) and Costume Design, too. She’s the one lock to me.
The Academy has such a weird relationship with Nicole Kidman, so one never knows, but if they watch Babygirl, she's in. I think the other actors in the branch are jealous (in a good way) of how far she's willing to go onscreen, I always say this, which seems obvious but people underestimate it: actors tend to vote on, "could I have done what they did with that role?" They might not admit that's how they vote, but they're always watching with a self-reflective eye. Very few actresses could do what Nicole does with Babygirl, and I think the other actors know that.
How are you guys feeling about Kidman? Nat, which ladies do you think are locks or near-locks at this point?
NATHANIEL: I'm not ready to say "lock" about any actress in the lead category (not yet at least) but Mikey Madison to me feels the closest after Jolie (on starpower and preordained biopic heat). The Oscar race is always two separate races, which everyone always forgets in their rush to predict winners months before nominations happen. It's true that you can start building your narrative for a win long before you're officially nominated but being one of five from dozens and dozens of apples & oranges that were released throughout the year (but mostly in the last three months) is much different math than being THE ONE among, oh, two or three. Let's not say five because there is always at least one or two "just happy to be nominated" slots. So even though I don't think Madison has much hope of a win I'd put her in second place for a nomination right now. She's got the discovery factor (even though this isn't her first film; she only *feels* like she was plucked from an actual strip club and placed in front of a movie camera), she's got a strong film, she's got a well liked director who is still very much on the rise with awards bodies. I really like her chances. I also happen to think she's deserving giving authentic livewire energy while still landing those comic and dramatic beats that can't possibly have been as spontaneous as they look. I realize that a lot of the clearly structured gut punch of the movie is a credit to Baker himself but it also doesn't work without a capable actresses out front.
I'm inbetween you both on Emilia Perez in that I don't love it (Eric) or dislike it (Nick) but am mostly just middle ground on it. I like it in a non-passionate way and almost all of that like comes from the fact that I respect the hell out of insanely big swings on principle. That said I think The Substance -- which I am less impressed with than most -- is very safely an example of much stronger execution when it comes to a big swing. I get what you're saying about Gascon's narrative, Nick, but agree with Eric that she could be a high profile "snub" come Nomination Morning in a crowded year. I know coattails are a very real thing but I wonder if there will be voters who think (as I do) that Zoe Saldana is running circles around all of the other actors in the movie and doing that with the most complex character, too.
Finally, Eric, what you say about Kidman is so interesting to me because I feel kind of... the opposite? I think the Academy's relationship to Kidman is crystal clear. They admire her but will only actually stump for her in her "safe" roles. This is not a diss on Kidman; for the record I think she's good-to-great in all five of her Oscar nominated roles but it's not like, Moulin Rouge! and Rabbit Hole aside, she hasn't been even more incredible in other things. I think of Oscar's relationship to her (not her mind you) as a kind of human embodiment of that moment in 2001/2002 when the Academy thought journeyman Ron Howard was a better director than (wait for it) four legendary auteurs who had never won: Robert Altman, Ridley Scott, Peter Jackson, David Lynch. This analogy is messy but my point; they recognize genius sometimes but they prefer talent when it comes in easy-to-digest packages.
Speaking of... we should probably talk about Tilda.
THE ROOM NEXT DOOR
NICK: Nathaniel, your analogy for Nicole makes perfect sense to me. They like her when she’s doing things in their wheelhouse, but they’re not gonna meet her at her most adventurous. Maybe Babygirl will be an exception since Oscar does sometimes spring for erotic dramas? The field is so crowded with interesting choices, I wonder if it’ll inspire some creative decision-making or scare them into some familiar fallbacks?
Re: Tilda, I’ll just repeat what I said earlier that I am resisting the urge to predict her (and The Room Next Door outside of Adapted Screenplay) so I don’t jinx myself. I’m very happy she got the Globe nomination, and based on reading the book it seems like a great role for her. Do you guys think she’s got a good shot with the Academy?
On a bitchier pivot, do we think any of the leading ladies stealing supporting slots would be contending if they were in their proper place? I think Ariana Grande could be overtaking Cynthia Erivo’s heat, and Zoe Saldaña might be left in the dust or (gif willing) cancelling out her and Gascon’s chances. I simply don’t believe Margaret Qualley would be getting nominations in lead, and Demi Moore would be sitting just as pretty as she is now. We can’t let the people do Joan Chen dirty like this!
ERIC: It would be thrilling to see Tilda nominated again (party of one for Still Angry about We Need to Talk About Kevin in 2011...I hold grudges.). Almodovar films are always released so late that it's usually unclear if they'll get traction or not. I think Tilda could get on track if enough people catch the film over the holidays. Despite the fact that they all have Oscars, I still think Tilda, Julianne, and Pedro are all still sort of taken for granted.
Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba in "Wicked". © Universal Pictures
I'm back and forth on Erivo. The film is huge, and they nominated for her for Harriet, in which she is actually legit terrible, so this much better work weighs in her favor. But I think at the moment we're in a bit of a high point for Wicked overall, and in a month, the film may be in a different place? It really could go either way, but right now I’m thinking she misses.
Nick, interesting question about the "supporting" ladies,, but I'm in that minority that doesn't spend a lot of time thinking about it, because it's ultimately futile. I just kind of accept the categorization and move on. But I like to think Zoe Saldana would have a fighting chance, because I agree with Nathaniel that she's really doing a lot and I think her moment in the back of the car when she completes her assignment is one of the best acting moments of the year. I love Margaret Qualley, but the nominations she's receiving are pretty generous as it is (yes, I "get" what she's up to not being fully-formed, but end of day, she plays in a tiny, tiny range).
Nathaniel, you have more juice on category fraud, so do you want to wrap us up with your final thoughts? And maybe we all do foolish predictions?
NATHANIEL: I'm so tired of my pet peeve topic so I'll just note a small blessing: the giant amount of Category Fraud that will surely happen in Best Supporting Actress is at least happening in a year where the category is curiously thin. I mean Joan Chen (Didi), Juliette Lewis (The Thicket), Lesley Manville (Queer), Rebecca Ferguson (Dune Part Two), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Dolly De Leon (Between the Temples), Sunita Rajwar (Santosh), and Rachel Sennot (Saturday Night) -- to name several performances that are either inspired or interesting interpretations of the text, or simply great fun -- were not going to be slam dunks for nominations even if there weren't multiple pure leads or arguable leads pushing them out. That was 8 and I almost kept going. Okay, maybe it's not a thin year for sup--- ARGH. sorry, that's a different category and already discussed!
Getting back to the Best Actress track. It's fun to think "anything could happen" (as we began the conversation by saying) but it narrows down soooo quickly. Insert crying emoji. Now that the Critics Choice ballot is out and so closely married to the Globe votes there's already a lot more distance between that Column A and B than we began with. Our only real shot at volatility now is SAG choosing a surprising combo when they name their quintet. If I had to predict right now I'd say...
Lock-ish: Jolie, Madison
Looking Strong: Erivo, Gascon, Moore
Possible Spoiler: Jean-Baptiste
Longshot but Possible: Kidman (if SAG bites?)
Which I'm quite surprised about all told. I never thought Demi Moore would make it this far for such a crazy-ass horror film when other acclaimed previously Oscar-nominated actresses did even better work in the same genre (Toni Collette, Hereditary / Lupita Nyong'o, Us) and were mostly ignored.
It feels slightly unusual to see multiple Oscar winners or perennial nominees (Adams, Kidman, Ronan, Swinton) shoved aside when they've got meaty roles on paper and they're terrific at bringing them to life onscreen ... but sometimes you really need voters to love the films you're in, not just your performance. But I have to say if that's the kind of year it's going to be -- newbies galore -- I'd so prefer that they commit wholeheartedly and make it an all newbie lineup. Zendaya (Challengers), Saldana (Emilia Perez in the correct category), Torres (I'm Still Here), and Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) and Moore are all right there. Angelina already has an Oscar AND an Honorary Oscar... and nobody seems to care all that much about her movie as a movie so it's puzzling. Until I remember that it's a biopic wherein a famous celebrity plays a famous celebrity and then I wonder why I was ever puzzled. You need nothing else if you've got that, as history proves again and again.
Zoe Saldana & Karla Sofia Gascon in EMILIA PEREZ © Netflix
NICK: As of right this literal second, I’d say Oscar’s final lineup will be:
- Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez (locked)
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
- Angelina Jolie, Maria
- Mikey Madison, Anora (locked AF)
- Demi Moore, The Substance
Likeliest alternatives: Cynthia Erivo in Wicked, Nicole Kidman in Babygirl, Amy Adams in Nightbitch, Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door.
Along with a SAG surprise, we can’t ignore the possibility of BAFTA doing something so off the wall it makes things even more confusing. They seem like they’d give Saoirse Ronan a nomination or two just to throw everyone for a loop, those sick fucks. A maneuver like that isn’t as likely as it was three years ago, sure, but as long as the left-field choices swing towards actresses I like, I’m for it.
Before we go, are there any personal favorites who we’d like to shout out who are way, way, waaaay outside the Oscar conversation? I’m doing it either way, but you guys should too! If you the reader are looking for some top-tier actressing, go check out Juliette Gariepy (Red Rooms), Lea Seydoux (The Beast), Lea Drucker (Last Summer), Lily Collias (Good One), Soheila Golestani (The Seed of the Sacred Fig), Tilda Swinton (Problemista), Ilinca Manolache (Do Not Expect too Much From the End of the World), Sofia Otero (20,000 Species of Bees), Vera Drew (The People’s Joker), and Willa Fitzgerald (Strange Darling).
ERIC: Right now, I’m predicting these five:
- Angelina Jolie
- Demi Moore
- Nicole Kidman
- Mikey Madison
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste
With Torres and Gascon most likely after that. But still lots of time for the tides to shift! Boys, thank you for a fun and spirited discussion. Let’s see what our readers think below…
OTHER VOLLEYS