The Film Experience

The Oscar Volleys continue. Today, CLÁUDIO ALVES and EUROCHEESE discuss the Oscar race for Best Actor.

Timothée Chalamet in MARTY SUPREME | © A24

CLÁUDIO: Last year in movies turned out to be an odd one for me. Mostly because, when I looked at my spreadsheets and lists to make up a ballot, the male acting categories felt markedly richer than their female counterparts. This never happens, not to me, at least. Yet, here we are. And while the supporting acting races don't necessarily show this - the Supporting Actress quintet AMPAS chose is one of the strongest we've had in years, mayhap decades - the leads bear the truth of the matter quite starkly.

In other words, I'm surprisingly happy to be discussing Best Actor rather than Best Actress in this year's volleys. I'm even happier to be doing it with you, Eurocheese! Are you similarly enthused?

EUROCHEESE: Same! I could have easily filled ten Actress slots the prior year, but last year saw a slew of brilliant male leads, making the limit to five a difficult choice. I can't complain about the choices the Academy made here - all five deserve their names in this lineup...

Josh O'Connor in WAKE UP DEAD MAN | © Netflix

Still, it's hard not to feel like Josh O'Connor could have been rewarded for one of his many brilliant leading turns this year (my pick would be his priest in Wake Up Dead Man), or another twinning role in Dylan O'Brien's compelling pairing in Twinless, or Tonatiuh's brilliant work that eclipses the original Actor win for Kiss of the Spider Woman... but I digress. Maybe the heavy competition, both in and out of the category this year, is why I'm not so settled on what is ultimately happening in this category. Before we get into it, though, any favorite shout-outs on your end?

CLÁUDIO: Oh, I have so many performances I'd love to shout out, many of which weren't even in the final eligibility list. Consider Abou Sangaré's tour de force in Souleymane's Story, a breakthrough like no other this year. Or Adam Bessa's meticulous negotiation through the constricting tensions of Ghost Trail, Mahmood Bakri's movie star charisma and social realist grifting in To a Land Unknown, Lautaro Bettoni's sexy insinuations and bawdy humor in The Astronaut Lovers, Jan Gunnar Røise serving the curious ambiguities of Sex, or Toni Servillo's usual excellence in La Grazia. I don't quite understand why Love, Brooklyn wasn't submitted, since it's another proof that André Holland is one of our best living actors, and, while Saleh Bakri was eligible for All That's Left of You, he's even better in The Teacher.

From those films that were actually up for Academy consideration, I'll always pull hardest for the world cinema offerings. In a just world, Lee Byung-hun would've been a shoo-in Best Actor nominee for No Other Choice's sinister slapstick. And if Paul Mescal could get a shocking mention for Aftersun back in 2022, why couldn't Sope Dirisu do the same with the similarly themed, yet even trickier memory play at the center of My Father's Shadow? Sirat and Kokuho nabbed nominations in other categories, but, sadly, neither Sergi Lopez nor Ryo Yoshizawa got the Best Actor buzz they ought to have.

Lee Byung-hun in NO OTHER CHOICE | © Neon

In the realm of English-speaking Oscar-eligible cinema, I mourn hardest for three men. There's Frank Dillane in Urchin, Alexander Skarsgård, who I consider a co-lead, in Pillion, and young Everett Blunck with his Griffin in Summer and The Plague double feature. I could go on, but let's cap it there, with one single mention to Joel Edgerton, who was this year's likely sixth-placer for Train Dreams. I know I'd have chosen him over, at least, one of the final nominees. Do you agree? And who else do you think got close to a nomination?

EUROCHEESE: I was impressed with Joel Edgerton's leading role in Train Dreams, but he still wouldn't make my personal top 10. I was so thrilled Lee Byung-hun landed his Golden Globe nomination, leading one of my favorite films last year, where so much of the film is playing out across his face. Tom Blyth's stunted policeman coming to terms with his sexuality in Plainclothes, Benicio Del Toro's best turn this year (though Sensei is terrific) as a madcap tycoon in The Phoenician Scheme, and if we bump Alexander Skarsgård into lead, he'd definitely make the cut. (If Papa Skarsgård or Elordi should be considered lead, they'd make the list too.)

Back to reality, though!

With wins from Cannes and the Globes, followed by snubs from SAG and BAFTA, Wagner Moura seems like a wild card and may be in a similar boat to Jordan. I think his best chances come from the fact that fans of The Secret Agent *really love* the film, and you can't love the film without acknowledging his central performance. I have a strong feeling my initial viewing may have underrated the film, and given the strength of its final act, I should probably give it a re-watch, though I'll admit I'm not rushing to do so. I do think his performance will also appeal to "steak-eater" voters, with an impending sense of a standoff that will pay off for them. Earlier in the evening, if we see The Secret Agent take International Film over Sentimental Value (and It Was Just an Accident, but sadly that film seems to be slipping), this will feel much more likely. It's hard to avoid comparing it to Fernanda Torres last year, though, also in a competitive category and also outside the conversation for the most likely top two. I'm curious to hear if you think he has a stronger chance than I do.

Ethan Hawke in BLUE MOON | © Sony Pictures Classics

My personal choice for the win would be Ethan Hawke. He showed up for a Q&A at my screening of Blue Moon, and hearing his own personal growth throughout his career, challenging himself to find characters that he might have felt weren't "authentic" early in his career, because he now better understands how our environments build us into the people we become, resonated strongly in the room. The Oscars love a transformation, but I was especially taken with how well he fit into this role when he doesn't strike me as an obvious casting choice. I do think this would be an old school choice, but could a character actor-style turn in a small film topple the leading men in Oscar frontrunning films? I'd love a surprise win here, but I can feel my own bias wanting this to happen for him. I would love to see Hawke take an Oscar home at some point, but I'm not counting on it being here.

CLÁUDIO: Here's the thing about Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent - I love his performance to the point that he's my pick for best of the year, even beyond the Oscar nominees. It's an incredibly low-key performance that mostly lives in the calculated pauses between dialogue, the sleight of hand of saying what you don't mean or speaking the truth while trying to protect oneself. And that's before the prologue tasks the actor with communicating a whole other character who may share his father's face but does not echo his speech, his manner, his demeanor, or the panicked sense of purpose that lights a fire beneath his grief. Why is this a problem, some may ask. Because my picks almost never win, especially in this race of all races. The last time it happened was with Daniel Day-Lewis at the 80th Academy Awards, so I have learned to interpret my love as the kiss of death for any contender. However, I have seen many strong arguments for why Wagner Moura may be closer to Oscar gold than my pessimistic heart dares to dream.

First up, there's the fact that AMPAS clearly loved The Secret Agent more than Blue Moon, though not at the level of Marty Supreme, OBAA, and Sinners. However, the fact it got this far suggests a great passion behind it, capable of overcoming the handicap of being a Portuguese-language film and a work of Latin American cinema - before I'm Still Here, these factors usually equated to dismally low Oscar prospects. Those realities kept Moura from being nominated for some major precursors whose tastes tend to run more local and provincial than the Academy's - SAG and BAFTA - so their results ultimately mean very little for the actor's chances. And then, there's the simple power of Moura's charm, the power of his and Mendonça's political convictions within a season where none of the artists repping a Best Picture frontrunner about revolutionaries have had much to say about the current situation in the US, among other things.

Wagner Moura in THE SECRET AGENT | © Neon

EUROCHEESE: I agree that the SAG snub for Moura doesn't mean much, but the BAFTA snub is a big deal. The film did get nominations for Film Not in the English Language and Original Screenplay, so that means they saw the film and chose to vote in another direction for the acting nominations. International winners have an uphill battle, and here's a stat I didn't know until researching this topic: Every foreign language performance since the 1970s (De Niro was nominated for "Best Newcomer" for The Godfather Part II) that has won the Oscar also won the BAFTA. Stats are made to be broken (and to be fair, it is a short list), but it would take a huge push to get Moura to the top. I am not feeling that kind of momentum, but as you stated, there are pockets of voters that have passion for the film.

Performers may not have been speaking out about the current state of affairs, but the films certainly have. One Battle After Another, between the immigration camp liberations, the "Christmas Adventurers" and Sensei's underground network touches on a lot of hot button issues the country is facing now, and Sinners (which of course isn't in this category) speaks to African-American history and white oppression, which also speaks to the current moment. I would like to think political stakes matter to voters, but Jafar Panahi's film underperformed this season in a way I found disappointing, and he has been more vocal than anyone (with good reason) on the state of the world in this awards season.

CLÁUDIO: That is a good point, about every recent non-English-language acting Oscar winner has been recognized by BAFTA. Honestly, since I already think Moura's win is a bit of a "too good to be true" scenario, it doesn't affect how I view the race much.

Michael B. Jordan in SINNERS | © Warner Bros.

EUROCHEESE: Michael B. Jordan wouldn't make my line-up for the year, but I'm still very happy he has an Oscar nomination. It never made sense that so many voters saw Creed and didn't recognize his star-making performance opposite Stallone for awards love, and while I don't usually need Marvel representation in my Oscar noms, Killmonger was the most memorable and possibly the most relatable villain the franchise has ever produced (in a Best Picture nominee, no less). He would have made my personal list for both of those roles, and given the phenomenal success of Sinners, it would have felt wrong not see his name included among this list.

CLÁUDIO: You make a good point. People aren't just passionate about Sinners. They are passionate about Jordan's double turn itself. He won SAG, was among the most cited in the regional critics circuit, and was even listed as runner-up for the NSFC, an organization that doesn't tend to go for Hollywood blockbusters.

In some ways, this is a long time coming. It's been over a decade since Jordan's big dramatic breakthrough in Fruitvale Station, which received moderate Oscar buzz as a Sundance darling. Then came the actor's second collaboration with Ryan Coogler, Creed, where I think Jordan outperformed the entire, truly tragic, Best Actor Oscar lineup from that year. And, honestly, if someone had to be nominated for a MCU movie, a Black Panther one in particular, it should have been Jordan for the 2018 Best Picture nominee, where his mix of cocky magnetism and a bruised, vengeful spirit is so compelling that it threatens to unbalance the audience's allegiance to the putative heroes.

So, it feels right for Jordan to be nominated for an Oscar thanks to his role in a Ryan Coogler movie. I just wish it had been any of his previous characterizations, because Smoke and Stack feel awfully half-sketched, not differentiated enough, nor especially compelling as genre flick transplants from the various cinematic lineages Sinners is pulling inspiration from. I'm glad he's an Academy Award nominee, yet I can't help but root against him in the race for gold. Which feels shitty and, right now, probably a tad foolish. Again, he just won SAG. Leo has won nothing major, and Timmy is falling ever further down pundits’ predictions.

Leonardo DiCaprio in ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | © Warner Bros.

What do we think about those BAFTA and SAG results regarding the race? I’m really fascinated by the Marty Supreme blanking at both. It seems that Timothée Chalamet flew too close to the sun, mayhap putting off voters with the relentlessness of his promotional antics, not to mention how toxic Marty Supreme has become, as controversy after controversy dulls its luster as a contender. Is the industry over Marty Supreme and its leading man? And, if so, who’ll benefit in Best Actor? Part of me wants to say DiCaprio, even though Jordan is the logical answer. And then there’s Moura, whose win is still “too good to be true,” but maybe good things can happen. Stats are meant to be broken, after all.

EUROCHEESE: Perhaps we're overthinking it? Sinners' insane 16 nomination haul was bound to make an impact in a few races, but admittedly, I didn't see it coming here. Timmy won at SAG last year, which could have been a factor, but it would be odd to keep missing and then show up at the Oscars. Isn't that true for everyone here, though? Going into SAG, I was thinking the win might default to DiCaprio in the Best Picture winner - four out of the last five years have paired it with a lead acting Oscar, and two of the races (McDormand and Madison) didn't seem like obvious outcomes heading into the ceremony. One Battle After Another is no longer the steamroller we thought, and Leo could have won the Actor just as easily if the momentum had been there. Where does that leave us?

Speaking of momentum, there was no win more jubilant in the room than Jordan's victory at the SAGs. His speech was beautiful, and it was given right in the heart of the Oscar voting window. There is no sure outcome in this race, but especially in the leading acting categories, a surprise win taken from a clear frontrunner (and I would say Chalamet fits the bill this year) can certainly translate to Oscar. Does it always? We saw just last year that it doesn't.

Part of the question is how much love really exists for Marty Supreme, because both Sinners and One Battle After Another are clearly beloved films. The age bias (which I still insist is sexist - Oscar's weird insistence on making younger actors wait while tossing wins at attractive young actresses like Madison constantly) will be against him, which I assumed meant if they went another direction, they'd go for an older veteran. DiCaprio is giving one of his funniest performances ever, and one of my favorites this year, but we all know comedy doesn't get the same level of love from the Oscars. Maybe the alternative is Jordan, long overdue for praise, and leading the biggest critically acclaimed blockbuster of the year.

Michael B. Jordan in SINNERS | © Warner Bros.

It's also easy to pivot to the most recent winner. Talk me down! What are you seeing in your tea leaves?

CLÁUDIO: I look at my tea leaves and see nothing but confusion.

If I were to talk you down from a Jordan prediction, I guess I'd have to argue up other possibilities. Yet, like you, I'm just not seeing it for Chalamet, even beyond the issues I already mentioned surrounding his campaign. We talk a lot about how the Academy, or awards groups in general, tend to veer away from complicated women in their movies, and while the same doesn't apply to unlikable male roles, I wonder if being annoying can be detrimental to a guy's chances of cinching the win. Not the performer themselves, but the character. Because Marty Mauser is a vexing presence, so much so that I sometimes find myself needing to separate how grueling, downright exhausting it is to spend two-plus hours following this man's journey from the film's merits. Indeed, that exhaustion seems to be the point of the whole thing. Looking at the Best Actor winners of the last few decades, there are a lot of pathetic figures, grotesques, and so many unlikable men it's hard to keep track of. But are there many, easily recognizable, and tragically commonplace depictions of an annoying little shit like Marty? Not really. Moreover, the film is respected, but I don't think it's loved with the widespread passion of something like Sinners or One Battle After Another.

Over the past week, there has been much speculation about who the BAFTA runner-up was. In some ways, it feels like the answer to that could provide the answer to this whole Best Actor mystery. And, at this point, I don't think it was Chalamet. Honestly, I think DiCaprio might have been the one, similar to McDormand for Nomadland and Madison for Anora. So, there's a possible alternative to Jordan.

Hawke seems out of the question, which leaves Moura as the other potential answer. I don't want to repeat the same mistake I made last year, when I thought Best Actress was between Torres and Moore, but The Secret Agent has built an even better campaign than history's only other Brazilian Best Picture nominee. Moura, specifically, has been everywhere, from parties to guild award ceremonies where his movie isn't even contending, to industry events and a seemingly endless array of screenings and media appearances. He's also charming as fuck, seemingly getting everyone to love him at these events. Will that and the quality of an admittedly un-Oscar-y type of performance be enough? Hard to say. The lack of combined SAG and BAFTA support didn't stop King from winning for If Beale Street Could Talk, which provides some precedent for a Moura win, especially considering The Secret Agent feels more loved than Barry Jenkins' Baldwin adaptation ever was. Then again, unprecedented stuff can happen, and we shouldn't hold on to these things as cosmically immutable. This season seems like it'll be one of those that breaks precedents. So, maybe that "no non-English performance has ever won without a BAFTA nomination" stat is about to be disproven.

Well, my friend, I think it's time. Give me your final ranking of these nominees by likelihood of an Oscar win.

EUROCHEESE: When I feel a momentum shift in the award trajectory, taking a step back from it needs justification. By the way, it does feel like having either Jordan or DiCaprio win would tell us who might end up winning Best Picture... I don't even think such a scenario has happened this century! Before falling down another rabbit hole, my gut lands here:

1) Jordan
2) Chalamet
3) DiCaprio
4) Hawke
5) Moura

This could genuinely be the dream scenario for a surprise, though. I'd be over the moon if Hawke swept in out of nowhere, but I must admit part of me would be thrilled for Jordan if he pulled this off, even if the performance wasn't my favorite. What say you?

CLÁUDIO: In terms of personal preference, I'd order them so: Moura>Hawke>DiCaprio>Chalamet>Jordan. The top two are genuine contenders for my own ballot, and I have voted for both at times during this season. DiCaprio is excellent, too, just not in the running for my personal lists. Chalamet's work feels more interesting as an excoriation of his own star persona more than a piece of character study, which is meritorious on its own terms, though less exciting for me as a viewer. Jordan is the only slight disappointment, but I don't mind the idea of him as an Oscar winner. It should have already happened for Creed, in any case.

Regarding predictions, I'll tentatively go with...

1) Jordan - Because we aren't in the early 2000s, and it would feel odd for the SAG winner to lose the Oscar two years in a row. Sometimes, the easy answer can be the right answer to a punditry puzzle.

2) Moura - He's surging at the right time, and voters must theoretically watch all nominees before voting this year, so that might help him. He's campaigning like crazy, too.

3) DiCaprio - For all the reasons I already mentioned. Mostly because I'm still predicting OBAA in Best Picture, and a complementing Best Actor victory feels right.

4) Chalamet - Sometimes, early-season frontrunners seem to flop when things get heated, but resurge in favor at the finish line. Still, I don't see it.

5) Hawke - The nomination was the reward. He's the only one who would genuinely shock me if he were to take Oscar gold, no matter how good his performance is.

And I guess that's a wrap on one more mind-boggling acting race. It's incredible how wild things feel this year, full of volatile narrative shifts everywhere but Best Actress. It'll be a nail-biter till the end!

Previous Oscar Volleys: