Oscar Volley: "Best Original Screenplay" is sewn-up for Ryan Coogler. It's his coronation.
Tuesday, March 3, 2026 at 9:00PM The Oscar Volleys continue. Today, LYNN LEE and BEN MILLER discuss the Oscar race for Best Original Screenplay.
BLUE MOON took the slot many thought/hoped would be filled by SORRY, BABY.
LYNN: Ben, it’s been a long if not especially strange road getting here, and we’re in the homestretch now! Other than the surprise of Blue Moon being the sleeper nominee, this race seems to be running pretty much as expected. What do you think of the nominees? Does Sinners have this in the bag, or could one of the international nominees score an upset? I don’t think Marty Supreme is winning this one, and I swear it’s not just because it's my least favorite of the nominees.
BEN: As much as I love Blue Moon, I have to pour one out for my beloved, Eva Victor's Sorry, Baby...
It’s not only that it was an incredibly poignant and touching story of modern trauma. That is not an easy script to get across. You have to be able to balance the stark with the comedy, which Eva Victor does with a deft touch. If I had a vote, that’s probably my winner. But alas, no use crying over something you can’t control. I do agree with you Marty Supreme is the weakest of the nominees. Of the things I point to as the big pluses of the film, the script doesn’t crack the top 20. It feels more like an unscripted film. The other four nominees are untouchable in my book, fueled by their screenplays.
Best Original Screenplay is bound to be Ryan Coogler's coronation, no matter what.
As for Sinners, this is a coronation. If you look back at recent Oscar history, the screenplay Oscar is often a prize of “We love your film, you aren’t winning Best Director, but you still deserve an Oscar.” Recent examples include Quentin Tarantino, Jordan Peele, Kenneth Lonergan, Emerald Fennell, Kenneth Branaugh, and Justine Triet. They do it in Adapted Screenplay too, with Alexander Payne, Adam McKay, Barry Jenkins and Spike Lee all winning despite missing the Best Director prize. I do not want to give the impression Coogler doesn’t deserve every prize he gets, but Paul Thomas Anderson is winning Best Director. Even if Sinners surprises in Best Picture, that never feels like an individual award. This is the capital-P Perfect place to award Coogler for his inventiveness, originality, and his commercial success.
LYNN: While I’m not quite as high as you on Sorry, Baby, it’s undoubtedly an impressive and powerful debut and was probably closer to getting a nomination than we’ll ever know. As for Blue Moon, setting aside the over-cutesiness of some of Linklater’s inventions (no, Lorenz Hart did not meet E.B. White at Sardi’s, much less give him the idea for Stuart Little; pretty confident he did not meet a young Stephen Sondheim or George Roy Hill there, either) and the overall heavy fictionalization of the actual night depicted, it’s remarkable how he manages to make 100 minutes of one man talking the ear off anyone who will listen genuinely engaging and even dynamic, rather than annoyingly stagey. A lot of the credit is obviously due to Ethan Hawke’s performance, but it’s the script that drives the rhythm and flow of that performance (which is also of course a performance of a performance, for what else is Hart’s entire appearance at Sardi’s?) and his increasingly revealing interactions with the other characters. Talk about balancing pathos and comedy – that’s exactly what Blue Moon does so well.
But I agree with you on Sinners. I don’t see it winning either Picture or Director, and while the BAFTAs and SAG (excuse me, the “Actor Awards”) may have seeded a bit of uncertainty into the acting races, I still think it’s losing those, too. Although I’m skeptical that Oscar voters consciously strive to spread the wealth in how they vote, original screenplay is one category where they can feel unreservedly good about recognizing the magnitude of Coogler’s achievement. His script is extraordinarily effective in mashing up a bunch of genres that don’t normally go together and keeping you not just viscerally but emotionally invested. And the way it incorporates and infuses music into that narrative is downright inspired, elevating the movie from genre flick to multilayered, bloodstained, yet beautiful tribute to American culture and history.
How did the IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT buzz die so quickly?
So yes, I think Coogler’s got this. In another reality, though, It Was Just An Accident would have been the frontrunner – it’s got the moral heft and topical resonance, the expert blending of humor and horror, and still has, for my money, the best final moment of any movie I saw last year. Yet it seems increasingly likely, if somewhat incredible, that Jafar Panahi is going to walk away empty-handed on Oscars night. How did that happen?
BEN: I think the argument for It Was Just an Accident would be to look at Pedro Almodovar's 2002 screenplay win for Talk to Her. I think the big difference was the lack of a frontrunner in that category. Gangs of New York was the nomination behemoth, but the enthusiasm had waned by the time the ceremony rolled around. Plus, Almodóvar had a Best Director nomination, and a stellar 20+ year reputation at that point. Panahi, for all his acclaim, just doesn't have that kind of reputation among Academy members. I also think Neon did a pretty solid job of screwing up the release. Following the Palm win at Cannes, Neon dumped it in the middle of October, in this weird no man's land of tentpole releases. I think with a more targeted release in November, things work out better. But at the same time, Neon had many different priorities when it came to awards releases. They did get a pair of Best Picture nominees, and four out of the five International nominees.
There is a definite case for Panahi if Sinners isn't there, but unfortunately for him, Sinners is definitely there. Do you see any world where Sentimental Value comes to upset?
LYNN: Neon certainly seemed to have more international contenders than they knew what to do with this year. Or perhaps they just made a strategic decision to prioritize – or at least schedule a later release date for – The Secret Agent as the latter picked up more and more steam throughout awards season and arguably stole a bit of Accident’s thunder. Though it’s hard to say how much of The Secret Agent’s awards success affected Neon’s rollout or promotion strategy as opposed to the other way around. And somewhat curiously, The Secret Agent *didn’t* get a screenplay nod, even as it picked up nominations in other major categories. (Perhaps Oscar voters, like me, thought it was brilliant but also a bit messy and sprawling – which aren’t qualities that tend to get rewarded in this category.)
In the last days of campaigning, Neon has prioritized THE SECRET AGENT over SENTIMENTAL VALUE.
I don’t see Sentimental Value scoring the upset. Delicately and tenderly observed as it is, it feels smaller scale and less overtly ambitious in scope and vision than Sinners. Not that I’m suggesting a film can’t be at once intimate and ambitious or even that ambition is more important than nuance and quality. But apart from what it does with the family house – my favorite thing about the movie – the overall arc of SV doesn’t really go anywhere unexpected, nor does it reinvent or remix genres in the way Sinners does.
Apart from Sorry, Baby, are there any other movies that you wish had been more in the conversation for this category? Especially movies that weren’t in the mix for Best Picture?
BEN: It doesn’t feel like there is much of a tangible script to speak of, but my never-ending love for Carson Lund’s Eephus extends to the natural dialogue between mostly non-professional actors. That’s not necessarily a film where you point to the script as the thing that makes it sing, so I’ll go with James Sweeney’s Twinless instead. That is a film that takes a ton of big swings in regards to reveals, duplicity, likeability, and identity. Much like Sorry, Baby, it easily could have missed the mark of tone and gone completely off the rails. Sweeney does a masterful job not only keeping things on an even keel, he makes himself be the unlikeable character. It’s a great film about grief and loneliness. I wish it would have had a bit more of an awards season run.
Anything stick out for you before we call it a day?
LYNN: Here’s where I gotta give a shoutout to Black Bag, Steven Soderbergh’s criminally underappreciated espionage whodunnit about a brilliant spy (Michael Fassbender) tasked with hunting a mole who may or may not be his own wife (Cate Blanchett). Per usual for Soderbergh, there’s not an ounce of fat or filler in this elegantly twisty and tightly paced brain-teaser, which I can really only describe as 100% fun for grown-ups, and hands down my most purely enjoyable movie viewing experience of 2025. I also think a lot about Kelly Reichardt’s The Mastermind, which deftly transmutes the most inept art heist imaginable into an engrossing combination of comedy, character study, and carefully crafted period piece that uses its Vietnam-era setting as an ongoing counterpoint to the protagonist’s self-absorption.
All that said, I’m prepared to be very happy to see Coogler collect his trophy. Hopefully it’s followed by many more!
MARTY SUPREME seems to have fallen out of favor at a critical time in the season.
Previous Oscar Volleys:
- BEST DIRECTOR, with Ben Miller and Nathaniel R
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, with Nathaniel R and Cláudio Alves
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY, with Eurocheese and Abe Friedtanzer
- BEST CASTING, with Nathaniel R and Abe Friedtanzer
- BEST EDITING, with Lynn Lee and Eurocheese
- BEST COSTUME DESIGN, with Cláudio Alves and Nick Taylor
- BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN with Eric Blume and Ben Miller
- BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM with Eric Blume and Nathaniel R
Reader Comments (3)
Honey, saying a film feels unscripted is probably the best compliment you could ever owe a script!!!!
Good lineup overall but where are THE SECRET AGENT, TWINLESS, and IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU?!?
One more time, "Sentimental Value" is number 1.
Best Original Screenplay, by far.
By far.
My runner-up: "Marty Supreme", with its fast and brilliant dialogue.
@Wae Mest-totally agree on everything! But I wouldn't say that Marty feels unscripted. In fact for me that (brilliant) screenplay often overflows and it doesn't always find the balance between the movie structure and the mission to be oscar baiting for its leading actor.
You also mentioned three titles that should be there replacing any of the current nominees.
I love Sinners, but calling this screenplay orignal is very funny. It's a mash-up of Only lovers left alive, From dusk till dawn and The color purple.
Sentimental Value has so many meat on the grill and I don't think it always has the control on its themes, plus I find it very wheedler towards the audience.
I continue to say that It was just an accident should be considered a minor Panahi. The screenplay of No Bears was a masterpiece in comparison. Here in the best tradition of Kiarostami's cinema eveything is shout out.
I would go for Sinners. Even if I don't consider it original it is the most balanced of the five.