Sundance Winners: Will "Fruitvale" and "Blood Brother" March On to Oscar Glory?
Sunday, January 27, 2013 at 12:51PM
NATHANIEL R in Amanda Seyfried, Blood Brother, Bradford Young, Cinematography, Fruitvale, Sundance, film festivals, precursor awards

Here is Amanda Seyfried with some paparazzi at Sundance. Amanda is great at being a celebrity. 

So even if Lovelace didn't exactly light the world on fire, she still wins.

But I suppose we should discuss actual festival winners, now that the fest has wrapped and the journos have all exited the snowy peaks of Park City, Utah. Before we list the winners, let's look at the context of how well they usually fare come Oscar time the following year. Are there any patterns?

2012 Beasts of the Southern Wild & The Sessions split the jury & audience prizes for drama, respectively. Beasts went on to major Oscar nominations and The Sessions (which also won a prize for its ensemble acting held on for one Oscar nomination in the form of the title character played by Helen Hunt (back then it was called "The Surrogate" remember?). The House I Live In and The Invisible War split the juried & audience prizes for doc and the reverse happened: Oscar went with the audience fav rather than the jury fav. (Personally I think The House I Live In is a much stronger documentary so that outcome disappointed me). 

Total Oscar nods from Sundance prize-winning films:  9
Most Predictive: Best Documentary. 3 of the eventual 5 nominees won prizes here 

2011 This year produced a lot of disparate favorites but most of the hot films in the cold climate of Park City like How to Die in Oregon, Tyrannosaur, Project NIM, Like Crazy, Buck, Circumstance, Martha Marcy May Marlene, failed to win any Oscar nominations.

Total Oscar nods from Sundance prize-winning films:  2
Most PredictiveBest Documentary. 2 of the eventual nominees won prizes here 

More after the jump including this year's winning Sundance films. Obviously, congratulations for now and well done, can't wait to see you. Etcetera. (But will we be talking about them at Oscar time next year?) 

2010 Winter's Bone and Restrepo won the juried awards for drama and documentary and both went on to Oscar favor. The Kids Are All Right caused a bidding war and raves (but no prizes) and also went on to Oscar glory. The festival's audience favs happythankyoumoreplease and Waiting for "Superman" failed to win Oscar love. Animal Kingdom, which took the World Cinema Drama prize, went on to win one hard-earned and hugely deserved supporting actress nomination for Jacki Weaver.

Total Oscar nods from Sundance prize-winning films:  7
Most Predictive: Best Documentary. 3 of the eventual nominees won prizes here.

2009 In a rare feat, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' By Sapphire won both the Audience and the Jury prize (this feat was duplicated again this weekend!). It went on to big-time Oscar success with six nominations and two statues. We Live in Public and The Cove split the Jury and the Audience prizes for documentaries. Only The Cove lived on to see Oscar glory. 

Total Oscar nods from Sundance prize-winning films:  10
Most PredictiveBest Actress. Precious and An Education introduced us to new young actress stars.

2008 Frozen River and the brilliant Katrina doc Trouble the Water won the jury prizes and The Wackness and Fuel won over the audiences. Oscar noticed both the jury winners and the other two didn't register.

Total Oscar nods from Sundance prize-winning films:  4
Most Predictive: Best Documentary. 2 of the eventual nominees won prizes here.

That's enough for a bit of context. What did we learn? WATCH OUT FOR THE WINNING DOCUMENTARIES A YEAR FROM NOW. The rest of Sundance winners each year are hit and miss once they hit the larger world though they tend to fare best in the Actress categories... and what's more those nominees tend to be some of the most deserving. I'll leave that to you to determine why...

2013 SUNDANCE WINNERS

Michael B Jordan, who was so terrific on Friday Night Lights and recently co-starred on Parenthood, stars in "Fruitvale", a true story about a young man who was famously shot by police on New Year's Day 2009 in the Bay Area.

WHAT WILL WE SEE COME OSCAR TIME JANUARY 2014?
Well, if history is any indication expect to see some of the documentary winners march on to Oscar nods. Sundance loved the emotional Blood Brother most (Rocky Braat & Steve Hoover are pictured, left, accepting the prize), which is a film about Rocky Braat's travels to India to work with orphans with HIV. Since Sundance usually ends up heralding the arrival of more than one future Best Documentary Feature Oscar Nominee we should all try to catch The River Changes Course, The Square, Cutie and the Boxer, Gideon's Army, Who is Dayani Cristal? if we get a chance... just in case. (An uncelebrated bonus of Oscar fever: you seek out movies you might otherwise miss all the time!)

Fruitvale is a debut film from African-American director Ryan Coogler and though only two African American directors have ever been Oscar nominated (Lee Daniels for Precious and John Singleton for Boyz in the Hood) both were nominated very early in their feature film careers. And Oscar loves a noble-minded true story so perhaps we'll see Fruitvale making a splash at the Oscars. First it will have to pass the theatrical test and that's always tricky with festival hits which often flounder by either waiting too long until people have forgotten about their big initial festival splash or by getting half-hearted or under-funded releases. Fruitvale was picked up by the Weinstein Co which might be a good sign (I say might because people always forget that for every acquisition they push relentlessly to awards glory there are 2 on the shelf gathering dust and 2 dumped in theaters and barely pushed at all.) 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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