Coco here, ready to talk about the current Oscar race and the surprising snubs that wait around the corner.
Last week, I wrote about performances that might get nominated despite not having a lot of precursor support. This week, I'm writing about the opposite. If you're an actor and you're nominated for the Golden Globes, the SAG awards, and the BAFTAs, then you're widely assumed to be a lock for an Oscar nomination. This is true for the most part, but there are plenty of instances in which seemingly beloved performances that do great with precursors are nowhere to be found on Oscar morning. This has been especially true in recent years. We've seen at least one such performance be left off Oscar's list in each of the last four years.
Here's a quick rundown...
2014 - Jake Gyllenhaal's performance in Nightcrawler popped up at all the right places. What's more, the movie seemed to gain momentum consistently, scoring nominations from practically every awards-giving body throughout January. As you probably know, Jake didn't get the nomination. Maybe Oscar didn't like Nightcrawler as much as we were expecting. After all, the movie only got one nomination for Original Screenplay.
2013 - This year was a bloodbath as far as snubs are concerned.
2012 and 2011... and 2015 speculation after the jump.
Jake Gyllenhaal is still looking for Oscar nom number 2
The most surprising omission was Tom Hanks, who gave one of the best performances of his career in Captain Phillips. The movie scored six nominations including Best Picture, but Oscar couldn't make room for its lead star. Also ignored despite support from SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes were Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks and Daniel Brühl in Rush. Although neither of those films were as beloved as Phillips (Saving Mr. Banks only got one nomination for Original Score, Rush wasn't nominated at all).
2012 - It seems like Oscar can't nominate more than one foreign language performance at the time. Since they nominated Amour Emmanuelle Riva, Marion Cotillard got the boot despite being nominated at the big three precursors for Rust and Bone. It's also easy to forget now, but Helen Mirren was somehow also nominated by all three for her performance in Hitchcock.
2011 - We Need to Talk About Kevin doesn't seem like an awards-friendly movie, but Tilda Swinton got nominated consistently throughout the 2011 season. At the end, she didn't find favor with Oscar, who preferred Rooney Mara's Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.
As you can see, these "surprising snubs" are not a coincidence. They are a trend, and they suggest at least one of this year's most awards-friendly performances might be left off Oscar's list. The question, of course, is which one?
The BAFTA nominations were announced this morning, thus completing the "big three" precursors as far as acting awards are concerned. This year, we have thirteen performances nominated by the Golden Globes, the SAG, and the BAFTA. Let's take a closer look and try to figure out who'll miss Oscar's list.
Could both Carol performances be snubbed? 'Cause I don't think I could take it...
Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), and Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) are the only Lead Actresses that have appeared at all three award shows (in the same category). The category is so wide-open in terms of possibilities thanks to SAG's left of field decision to honor Helen Mirren and Sarah Silverman, and the Golden Globes category fraud resistance that it would be truly shocking if any of these ladies is left off Oscar's list. But hey, we might have said the same thing about Tom Hanks two years ago and look how that turned out. It pains me to suggest this (because I love the performance), but maybe Cate Blanchett is in a similar situation this year? Like Hanks, she's a big star with two Oscar under her belt, maybe voters will think she's been awarded enough?
Meanwhile, the confusion of which category will Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) and Rooney Mara (Carol) compete at the Oscars remains unanswered. They've been nominated for all "big three" awards, but in different categories each time. Supporting at SAG, lead at Globes, and split at BAFTA (Vikander lead, Mara supporting). It seems more and more likely that Vikander will get two nominations on Thursday (lead for Danish Girl, supporting for Ex Machina), but then again competing against one-self can be messy. Category confusions could certainly keep either of these ladies off Oscar's list.
However, category confusion will most likely not hurt Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), who's been nominated consistently in the supporting category. It shouldn't hurt Christian Bale (The Big Short) either, especially since his movie is quickly becoming a front-runner for Best Picture. He was nominated as a lead at the Globes, but Oscar will most likely agree with SAG and BAFTA and put him in supporting.
'Beasts' doesn't have much traction, but seems like Idris Elba is in for a nomination.Along with Bale for the Supporting Actor ride are Mark Rylance, who is all but assured a nomination for Bridge of Spies, and Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation). If any of these three actors is going to fall out, I'd put my money on Elba based on the fact that Beasts doesn't seem to have much traction in any other category. If Elba is snubbed, however, we might have yet another year of #OscarSoWhite, and that would be just embarrassing.
In the Lead Actor category, we have Leonado DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), and Bryan Cranston (Trumbo). Other than Leo, I wouldn't call any of these men a safe bet. The Danish Girl and Steve Jobs don't have much buzz to speak of, and the love for Trumbo remains rather puzzling. However, there doesn't seem to be much room for surprises in this category (is the assumption that Leo is going to win what's made this category so boring?). Here's hoping a geat performance like Michael B. Jordan's in Creed finds support to surprise on Thursday.
Does this sound like a trend to you? Which of these thirteen actors do you think will be left off Oscar's list on January 14th?