by Nathaniel R
Will Mary Poppins Returns receive both Actress and Cast nominations?
The Screen Actors Guild Award nominations will be announced on Wednesday the 12th and voting wraps up tomorrow on Monday the 10th. So it's time to do predictions as well as possible darkhorse surprise attack theorizing. Let's begin...
ACTRESS
We're predicting the five that we're currently also predicting for Best Actress Oscar nominations: Blunt, Close, Colman, Gaga, and McCarthy. Nicole Kidman could still happen since SAG likes her (as well they should) but we fear that even with multiple critics awards, Toni Collette will likely be undone by awards season's anti-horror bias. SAG loves Viola Davis but no one beyond festival critics went wild for Widows. If Yalitza Aparicio is nominated here for Roma she's probably in for Oscar too. The only true "surprise" we can see as a distinct possibility would be either Carey Mulligan in Wildlife or Julia Roberts in Ben Is Back, the former because the movie valiantly made a real effort in October with many Q&As and she's a widely respected actor and the latter because it's Julia and everybody who sees it likes her in that movie.
ACTOR
Here is where you'll see some divergence from the Globes because Ethan Hawke will be nominated for First Reformed on his way to his first Lead Actor nod at the Oscars (after two supporting and two screenplay nominations). He's too well liked and the performance is too good to be ignored. Plus the movie got an early headstart and has never faded from the conversation. Another thing that will help Hawke is that SAG has an earlier mindset than Oscars given how early they vote. Remember they mostly passed on The Post last year, which screened very late, so the same thing could theoretically happen to Vice... but we'll still assume that Christian Bale makes it even if the ensemble seems less than locked up, starpower aside. Predictions: Bale, Cooper, Hawke, Malek and Mortensen. For the record I personally don't believe (as many do) that Malek is a lock with Oscar but I can't imagine him missing with SAG which is more populist in its voting and more susceptible to box office enthusiasms. (I think we might see Dafoe take his spot in the Oscar lineup.) If there's a mild surprise at SAG it could be John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman. Robert Redford or Ryan Gosling would feel like total shocks at this point, though.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Same lineup that we've been predicting since well before the Golden Globe nominations which matched it 5/5: Adams, Foy, King, Stone, and Weisz. With two leads crowding out actual supporting players and no real momentum for Kidman, Robbie, or Debicki (*sniffle*) it's hard to imagine the Oscar lineup not being the exact Globe lineup.
Surprise Attack?: If SAG throws a curveball we're guessing it'll be either Michelle Yeoh on the strength of her fame, her role, and the popularity of Crazy Rich Asians overall or Linda Cardellini who is such a valuable assett to any TV or film which includes her. If they really love Green Book they might actually go for her since she's so adorable in the film.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Unlike their female counterparts, this lineup might not be so Globe matchy-matchy. For one thing Sam Elliott seems like a perfect SAG choice waiting to happen. So we're guessing it's Ali, Chalamet, Driver, Elliott and Richard E Grant as the SAG lineup. We're going to guess that Rockwell misses since he has internal competition and a small role and the movie screened late.
Surprise Attack? If SAG throws a curveball, we think it'll be Michael B Jordan for Black Panther. We'd LOVE to see a shocking nod for Alessandro Nivola in Disobedience but even SAG has trouble remembering movies released that early.
STUNT ENSEMBLE
We love that SAG has this award. It's hard to predict but let's try: Avengers Infinity War, Black Panther, Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, and A Quiet Place ... with outside spoiler possibilities for: Ant-Man and the Wasp or Deadpool 2, and, uh, basically every other action movie.
ENSEMBLE
And now we come to our favorite SAG category because it's the one that is the most unique. The nominating committee at SAG changes every year which is why you never quite know if they're just going to rubber stamp Best Picture choices or go out on interesting acting limbs sans Best Picture heat. It all depends on what the committee has seen and if enough of them are passionate about the category itself to not think of it in terms of "Best Picture" since that's not what it's supposed to be.
Predictions
Black Panther - So much popularity. So much press. Year long "Wakanda Forever" quoting and the cast has always felt like a collective.
Crazy Rich Asians - same as above, minus "Wakanda Forever"
The Favourite - Though they'll nominate all three of the leads, we suspect it'll still feel like a full cast to them (Hoult and Alwyn have their fans)
BUT I'M VERY TORN ON WHICH OF THESE FOUR IS STRONGEST FOR THE OTHER TWO NOMINATIONS. HOW ABOUT YOU?
Possible
BlacKkKlansman - A better way to honor it than with individual acting nods given the work of Harrier, Washington, Driver, Grace, and Corey Hawkins as Kwame Ture. But will they? Some of the KKK performances are rather... broad. Not that SAG gets that discerning about individual performances within movies they generally like.
If Beale Street Could Talk - Another movie with lots of actorly appeal. But will nominating Regina King be enough for them since she's the obvious standout?
Mary Poppins Returns - If they're voting on "movie I'd most like to have been in!" as they sometimes have done, this wouldn't be out of place.
Vice -- This wouldn't be surprising at all given how many celebrity actors are doing mimicry work in it. On the other hand it screened late and that cost The Post what seemed like a locked up nomination with SAG.
All that said I'm going to predict BlacKkKlansman and Beale Street to join the top three predictions.
Dark Horses that had trouble mustering audience enthusiasm but they wouldn't be bad choices at all in this particular category
Boy Erased, Widows, Wildlife
Extreme Long Shots but if SAG has a weird year...
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, A Quiet Place, First Man
Way too small and too filled with lesser-knowns for SAG to notice but wouldn't it be a fun shake-up the field type shock?
We the Animals, Support the Girls, Eighth Grade, Shoplifters
Lots of Best Picture Heat but an ensemble prize would be a very strange choice given that only 1 or 2 characters get any focus at all
A Star is Born -Given that we suspect the three main actors will all be nominated and the movie focuses almost entirely on two people, we doubt they'll view it as a "Cast" option.
Green Book - They'll nominate both Ali and Mortensen so why would they also think "Cast," in another movie with only two real parts (plus Linda Cardellini)?
Roma - If it's nominated for Cast here, despite only one character being fleshed out at all and it being a foreign language film, I think we can assume it's winning Best Picture at the Oscars having broken all the typical unwritten rules of awards season.
OKAY, HAVE AT IT IN THE COMMENTS. What are your predictions and/or preferences?