Other than the shorts, which we'll get to this weekend, we're all finished with our final Oscar predictions. Though we're at the top two most discussed categories, I regret to inform that this will surely be anti-climactic since I'm sticking with previous predictions in both cases. But here's why...
BEST ACTOR
It is with heavy heart that we acknowledge that Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) doesn't even appear to be running second in the Best Actor race, and currently behind both Christian Bale (Vice) and Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) despite giving the most soulful and even most technically impressive performance of this trio, all while directing himself and guiding a mostly non-professional actress to major heights through both intimate screen partnering and direction. We can't fathom why that's not appealing enough for a win but apparently it would have only worked if Jackson Maine had been a real life figure because voters are still more impressed with actors who pretend to be other famous people than actors who create fully believable human beings from scratch through skill and imagination. 'But who's complaining,' he trails off while very much still complaining. Nevertheless those three are mortal locks. There's a fourth lock we believe though some feel otherwise. Viggo Mortensen has been the sole nominee of his film both times he's been up for Best Actor, so anyone thinking that he's vulnerable for a major Best Picture threat, which Green Book is, like it or not, should probably think again. That leaves just one spot open which would have easily gone to Mahershala Ali, also from Green Book if the film had been campaigned as it should have without trying to game the system.
Nevertheless there is one spot open. Though John David Washington has been doing well in the precursors for his subtle reactive performance in BlacKkKlansman, those aren't the kind of roles that generally lead you to a nomination. Instead we're sticking by our original gut instinct that Ethan Hawke is going to receive his third acting nomination for a much showier role as an alcoholic dying priest in First Reformed. He's utterly dominated the critics awards and if there had been a significant campaign he'd never have missed for this career best work. If he does miss, it's only from the lack of a campaign. Still, isn't it weird that only six men seem remotely possible? Ben Foster, Ryan Gosling, Willem Dafoe, John C Reilly, Joaquin Phoenix, Lucas Hedges, and Robert Redford all received fine reviews this year and at least one notal precursor nomination each but none of them seem to have managed any traction.
BEST ACTRESS
Best Actress is the same story at first and then goes off the rails! You've got four locks: Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, and Melissa McCarthy, and one open spot. But here's where the stories diverge. Best Actor has only two possible outcomes but there are still SEVERAL possibilities in Best Actress. Emily Blunt has the head start and the statistical advantage having been honored at every televised precursor thus far for Mary Poppins Returns. But, if she's vulnerable, which most people (including me) feel she is, it's because of the nature of the role -- Julie Andrews win, while delicious, was always the most atypical of Oscar wins in this category -- and the anti-climactic reception of the film (which was meant to be a Best Picture nominee and a blockbuster rather than just an Oscar player and a big hit.) If Blunt falls, the possibilities for a surprise ending to the Best Actress nomination race feel endless. Or endless in the way an Oscar race can feel endless i.e. there being several imaginable outcomes instead of just two or three.
Yalitza Aparacio might make it to represent Roma and Alfonso Cuarón has been working hard to consistently position her as the heart of the film, often discussing her rather than his own triumph, in his acceptance speeches. Nicole Kidman might make it for Destroyer because she always works for it, is in a good career moment, and voters love a woman who deglams. Toni Collette might make it because there's true passion for her performance even if that passion is completely niche. Viola Davis might make it for Widows, and if she does BAFTA will look prescient, indicating that she's a big enough star now that, like Meryl, she might be able to nab a nomination out of thin air from her own prestige in an otherwise underperforming film. Elsie Fisher might even make it because Eighth Grade has been a steady presence in the precursors, even for the young writer/director Bo Burnham (who recently nabbed a DGA nomination for first feature). That's SIX women fighting for one spot. In short something surprising could happen! And that list does not even include our personal lost cause darling Carey Mulligan or Globe nominee Rosamund Pike, or European Film Award best actress winner Joanna Kulig from Cold War (a film that was surging around voting week) or Support the Girls' Regina Hall (a critical cause but for a tiny film voters aren't likely to have seen, given that $129,000 gross -- from our knowledge no film has ever received an acting nomination for a gross that low unless the film was a qualifying release or came out just before voting). That many viable options for voters means, we think, that Blunt won't have as much trouble keeping her spot as she otherwise would have. Unless there's concentrated love for one rival that we weren't able to see in the precursors, she'll nab the spot. Yalitza Aparacio is in the best position to knock Blunt out on the strength of her film but Aparacio has been there all season as an obvious way to love on the film and hasn't received any nominations or prizes of note for it. We think she would have by now if that were going to happen. (Yes, yes, she made that Critics Choice list but they allowed seven nominess this year so it doesn't mean much).