by Nathaniel R
"I have four more Oscars nominations than you. I've also won!"
Yours truly is still trying to get back into the swing of daily life after the always delightful Middleburg Film Festival. At the conclusion of the festival, the votes were counted and The Two Popes emerged as the Audience Award winner. You may recall that Green Book won that prize just last year before it went on to very leggy box office (final international tally $321.7 million on only a $23 million budget) and the Best Picture Oscar win.
The Two Popes is a less controversial crowd-pleaser and surely an Oscar nomination threat for two categories...
You can expect to see Anthony McCarten in the weirdly not crowded Best Adapted Screenplay category and Jonathan Pryce would be a slam dunk Best Actor nomination in most years though this year is bound to have a high profile snub or three given the robust competition.
The Two Popes is the type of movie that disarms people (and critics) enough that they dont get overly critical about it -- think Miramax or the Weinstein Co's "light" Oscar nominees back in the day, charmers that got the hard-sell with voters and were "sleeper hits" with adult audiences. The only reason I'm holding out on that Best Picture nomination prediction is that it's very difficult to imagine Netflix holding 33% of the Best Picture nominations and Marriage Story and The Irishman are already looking comfortably formidable in that realm (and when does one studio ever get that much of the expanded field?). Three nominations woud be astonishing just one year after their Oscar breakthrough via Roma.
At the very least we can expect a strong showing for The Two Popes in the Comedy/Musical section of the Golden Globes. It's looking like it might go something like this (though obviously films and performances aren't locked into specific categories yet)... what'cha think?
BEST PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL
sure things
JoJo Rabbit
The Two Popes
probably
Cats
Rocketman
Knives Out (if deemed a comedy)
maybe?
Dolemite is My Name
The Lighthouse (if deemed a comedy)
Uncut Gems
long shots
Aladdin
Blinded by the Light
Booksmart
Fighting with My Family
Goodboys
Late Night
The Upside
BEST ACTOR COMEDY OR MUSICAL
sure things
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
maybe
Chris Evans, Knives Out (if deemed a comedy)
Robert Pattinson, The LIghthouse (if deemed a comedy)
Bryan Cranston, The Upside
Matthew McConaughey, Beach Bums
Viveik Kalra, Blinded by the Light (if deemed a comedy)
Hamish Patel, Yesterday
longshots
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
If they decide they're both leads... like they do sometimes with in this category despite Oscar campaigns to the contrary (think Chicago)